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COVID-19

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
The UK rates are terrible through inaction. They make the US rates look good. But for action and inaction. I would suggest Australia and Sweden. The Swedes didn't do nothing, they just didn't do much. They have a lot higher numbers than their neighbours.
Australia have 19 covid cases per 100,000. The deaths are 0.34 per 100,000
Sweden and their “experiment” has been a topic of conversation on this thread for a while.

Australia and New Zealand have both seemingly had great success.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.

And before anyone says “Whatever, man. You just paid this guy by looking at his twitter! He’s not an expert! Clickbait!”, allow me to establish his bona fides:

Care for acute illnesses is relatively cheap to provide (price gouging on insurance payment schedules for outpatient visits and lab tests notwithstanding). Many hospitals and clinics have even delegated this task to nurses and PAs to further cut costs. Even if every hospital were full right now, they would be losing money on treatment of COVID-19 compared to more lucrative procedures and treatment plans.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
The replies are an interesting and perhaps enlightening read as well. I think lots of people don’t realize that an elective procedure can indeed be lifesaving. Or that failing to have one done can be life-threatening.
 

jackjack

Active Member
Sweden and their “experiment” has been a topic of conversation on this thread for a while.

Australia and New Zealand have both seemingly had great success.
We were lucky. By the time our Gov made a move. After sitting on their hands. It wasn't widespread within the community. It was mostly cruise ships and returning travelers. Who mostly went to 14 day isolation. They closed our national and intestate borders. Closed businesses and restrictive stay in place. They are paying compensation for lost jobs of $1,500 a fortnight and the same to self employed, Also to employers, to keep a worker on, if the business has lost 30% trade. They are doing a lot of other stuff to keep social harmony, for those at home. So we are happy having a netflix binge.
 
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Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
Here's my estimate, based on latest estimates of IFR (infection fatality rate) being in the 0.2 - 0.5 range, which is itself based on historical death rates for communities versus deaths experienced currently, allocating the difference to COVID. Using 150M as total infected...

300,000 - 750,000

We had 15K dead this past week, bending down rapidly. But I expect with relaxing distancing we will muddle along at 8K per week, so I think we will hit 120K by 1 July.

We're one decent therapeutic drug away from dividing the future fatalities by an order of magnitude or so. We're also a mutation away from increasing the fatality rate.
I think an IFR of 0.5 nation wide is way high. 0.1-0.3 is more reasonable. Right now the lower bound based on PFR is 0.3% in NYC but 0.025% nationwide. Also the 50:1 infection to confirmed case ratio estimated from the studies in CA don't hold for NYC - there aren't 15 million people living there. But NY is also more aggressive than CA was at administering testing. The good news in NYC is that if the IFR is 0.3-0.5% their cases and deaths should start to decline sharply as somewhere over 6M people have already been infected and the population will become immune.

Still, the fact remains that based on 1.5x the amount of fatally infected people need inpatient hospital care, the capacity exists unless everyone gets sick at the exact same time.
 
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Mos

Well-Known Member
None
Speaking of testing. Has anyone seen the nasal swab video from the Army floating around the interwebs? How the EFF is that swab not touching the back of that guys skull?
I got tested a couple of weeks ago. It was pretty unpleasant, and stung for a few seconds, but I didn't think it was excruciating. The nasal cavity is deeper than we tend to imagine.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
I got tested a couple of weeks ago. It was pretty unpleasant, and stung for a few seconds, but I didn't think it was excruciating. deeper than we tend to imagine.
I had a sinus block during a flight that came unblocked the next day and bled, went to the ER that night. They packed my nose to stop the bleeding. Good god, I could not believe how much stuff they crammed in there.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Once had an ENT doc send a camera through my nose all the way into my esophagus. He was good. Not too distressing at all. But what a crazy experience.
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I’m glad I ate lunch before reading this thread. ?
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Perhaps the key is starting early to either prevent infection or mitigate one before needing critical care
That is what I have read regarding the treatments of some docs who promote hydroxychloriquine. That is why when I read any report on a study of efficacy, let alone dangers of the treatment, I don't rely on it unless they speak to doses, how soon treatments began, and existing conditions.
 
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