COVID-19

[Maxillarious]

Right there with you. Two weeks ago I asked the front office if I could not go to Malaysia to support an Army exercise and it came down from CNAF that we were still supporting it because the Army was still doing it.

Fast forward to last week when we were restricted movement to our hotels and the Malaysian Base (OBTW this was when they had a super spreader event at a mosque) and the Army leadership still wouldn't call uncle. Finally on Friday they called it and we all shagged ass home to enjoy our mandatory 14 day home quarantines.

I called it the obvious train and nothing was stopping it. It is the dumbest thing the military has had me do in my 19 years in the Navy and I have washed Jets in the rain.

Decision making at all levels has become paralyzed by risk aversion. For a month, the official talking point that was pushed in order to prevent widespread panic was "It's just the common cold- it won't come here! If it does, just wash your hands while singing happy birthday and you'll be fine!" Tell that to the ICU doctors in full PPE that are getting infected and are in critical condition.

Unfortunately, everyone from the SES and O-6 level on down drank the Kool Aid pretty hard and were blindsided by the severity of the situation.

Even still, the prevailing thinking is pretty much akin to "I think I smell something burning in the kitchen- better wait until I see orange flames coming from the roof until I know for sure."

 

[OscarMyers]

Decision making at all levels has become paralyzed by risk aversion. For a month, the official talking point that was pushed in order to prevent widespread panic was "It's just the common cold- it won't come here! If it does, just wash your hands while singing happy birthday and you'll be fine!" Tell that to the ICU doctors in full PPE that are getting infected and are in critical condition.

Unfortunately, everyone from the SES and O-6 level on down drank the Kool Aid pretty hard and were blindsided by the severity of the situation.

Even still, the prevailing thinking is pretty much akin to "I think I smell something burning in the kitchen- better wait until I see orange flames coming from the roof until I know for sure."

It was insane, when the initial DOD guidance came out, the exercise leadership was still interpreting it in a way that made it so we could still support the exercise. Even the O-5's in the group thought it was insanity. Definitely lost a whole lot of faith in leadership from that. Lot of good lessons on how not to act were learned.

I have a whole lot of sympathy for the folks that HHG are packed up and they're stuck living in a hotel in Japan/Italy.

 

[Jim123]

Fast forward to last week when we were restricted movement to our hotels and the Malaysian Base (OBTW this was when they had a super spreader event at a mosque) and the Army leadership still wouldn't call uncle.

?‍♂️

One of the things that the Army is supposedly good at doing—better than any of the other branches of the armed services—is how to keep large numbers of people from getting really sick. Historically, for armies in the field, having half your troops get the shits all at the same time, is sometimes the difference of winning or losing. If there was one branch that I'd expect to figure out that your training det was a bad idea and to take action accordingly, it would be the Army.

 

[Maxillarious]

It was insane, when the initial DOD guidance came out, the exercise leadership was still interpreting it in a way that made it so we could still support the exercise. Even the O-5's in the group thought it was insanity. Definitely lost a whole lot of faith in leadership from that. Lot of good lessons on how not to act were learned.

I have a whole lot of sympathy for the folks that HHG are packed up and they're stuck living in a hotel in Japan/Italy.

Watch and remember. I hope you are able to carry along in your career to be in a position where you are able to affect real change- and when/if you are, be the decisive leader that they were incapable of being.

 

[Jim123]

On the lighter side,




42%

 

[insanebikerboy]

Alright, I'm going to need everyone to check their egos and take a bit of constructive criticism.

I've been watching this situation unfold since January 17th and have been putting out daily updates on a different forum with high accuracy every day since then. Even Stevie Wonder could have seen this shit coming.

For the past 2 months, I've been checking in on Airwarriors to see if anyone was picking up on this.

It took 57 days for someone to pick up on it here.

What was it that got everyone's attention finally? ESPN not having anything to talk about now that major league sports are cancelled? Not being able to execute PCS orders? Airlines curbing international and domestic routes?

I find the lack of strategic thinking and planning highly disturbing. You boys are about 2 months behind the power curve on this one.

COOP is about to go into effect. If you don't know what that is, you might want to grab a glossary.

You all are the best and brightest our country has to offer. Unfortunately, in the past 20 years of my military and federal service, I've seen all of that talent, attention and energy wasted on stuff that doesn't matter.

Our nation needs you. Be strategic thinkers that get out ahead of the threats and challenges that face us.

The virus is just one piece of the puzzle. As bad as it is (and yes, it is bad), we are also facing economic distress, collapse of the national healthcare system, supply chain disruptions and disruption of social order. And the cherry on top- this is a 100 year opportunity that will undoubtedly be taken advantage of by adversaries to further their own policies and agendas and upset the apple cart of the global balance of power.

I wish wardrooms were a little less Animal House and a little more von Clausewitz.

Saying this from a place of love for you all.

Go ahead, flame on- I'll make some popcorn.

I’ll be the asshole...

You’ve been watching this forum since January 17th and haven’t seen anything posted, so why didn’t you? Apparently you were posting ‘with a high degree of accuracy’ on a different forum. Instead you waited till someone else posted and now lecture the rest of us.

Those are wings on your profile, so as an officer and aviator you should’ve stepped up and said something.

Gfy.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

MD closed restaurants today but just about every place I've seen has switched over to drive thru and delivery. Including the local ice cream joint.

My concern is that you have people that go out to eat in order to get away from the house and have a nice meal, often that is what my family does, then you also have people that eat out frequently due to their hectic schedules and not being home to make dinner or whatever meal it is, and then you have the people that just don't really cook.

The ones that just don't cook will probably keep utilizing the take out option, those that didn't have time to cook are now probably working from home and so that could be lost business, the ones that go out to get out of the house will have a drastic change in their going out eating habits. The local restaurants near me before the shutdown took effect where experiencing between 20-35% drop, I hate to think what the drop will look like now.

My wife did say that we need to make sure we support the local restaurants when we can, I hope others than can afford to do this will do this as well to reduce the loss of the restaurants revenue.

 

[wink]

Everything I see here, and even from the real experts, is projecting from a current point in time, current data, and no consideration for the effect of even the most basic abatement procedures, let alone vaccines and improved treatment of the seriously ill. All of which is improving at an incredible rate. Everyone is seeing the down side of tomorrow and not the good news in medicine and public health.

Right now the very best of the free market is at work all around the world. There is fame and fortune for the first to a vaccine and lifesaving treatments for the infected.

@Spekkio is right. How much are we willing to pay considering a death rate of maybe .7%, current number, and infection rate likely to improve over time? I am not sure of the answer. But if you are honest you know it isn't an unlimited amount. WE do put a cost on every life. Clearly it makes a difference if it is your parent or cancer stricken child at risk, but we are talking policy here. You guys love to talk a good policy game. We all think ourselves capable, even good leaders. Would you trade the life of a 82 year old retiree for a family on the brink forced into homelessness and a high risk for infection? Is the life of a person in a nursing home on oxygen a fair trade for 50 small businesses and their 700 out of work employees? It's ugly. Just saying. Lots of numbers thrown around here. It isn't that sterile.

 

[taxi1]

Here's what is going to have to happen (JMHO, YMMV)

We #$%-ed up and let the cat out of the bag, and got beyond the point where individual quarantine and contact tracing could keep jack in his box. So now we have to shut it all down until we can put the transmission rate R0 below 1, and let exponential decay do its magic. Weather the storm. This will take some time, but China has done it.

Once done, then we have to test like a mofo to identify any popups, and contact trace every single knucklehead unlucky enough to be exposed, and lock them down until they've cured or died. Relentlessly and invasively. whatever it takes. Life can be semi-normal at that point.

Test, test, test.

If a town goes nuclear with it, lock the town or region down.

We do all this while we wait for the vaccine or anti-virals or other creative big pharma solution.

This is important reading, as it has influenced the federal government's recent actions.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This is important too, as it comments on the above paper in important ways. It suggests the paper above is pessimistic. By the guy who wrote "The Black Swan", of which this pandemic is an example.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e70eb32b16229792eb14836/1584458547530/ReviewOfFergusson.pdf

 

[Jim123]

Right now the very best of the free market is at work all around the world. There is fame and fortune for the first to a vaccine and lifesaving treatments for the infected.

I've said the same thing, just in private conversations (not on here and not necessarily even online). There is a lot of incentive to either cure, better treat, and/or mitigate this outbreak... and that's the wildcard in this whole thing.

It'll be interesting as hell about a year from now (and many years from now) to look back and remember what we were thinking and how we were feeling about it, day by day.

 

[RobLyman]

Alright, I'm going to need everyone to check their egos and take a bit of constructive criticism.

I've been watching this situation unfold since January 17th and have been putting out daily updates on a different forum with high accuracy every day since then. Even Stevie Wonder could have seen this shit coming.

For the past 2 months, I've been checking in on Airwarriors to see if anyone was picking up on this.

It took 57 days for someone to pick up on it here.

What was it that got everyone's attention finally? ESPN not having anything to talk about now that major league sports are cancelled? Not being able to execute PCS orders? Airlines curbing international and domestic routes?

I find the lack of strategic thinking and planning highly disturbing. You boys are about 2 months behind the power curve on this one.

COOP is about to go into effect. If you don't know what that is, you might want to grab a glossary.

You all are the best and brightest our country has to offer. Unfortunately, in the past 20 years of my military and federal service, I've seen all of that talent, attention and energy wasted on stuff that doesn't matter.

Our nation needs you. Be strategic thinkers that get out ahead of the threats and challenges that face us.

The virus is just one piece of the puzzle. As bad as it is (and yes, it is bad), we are also facing economic distress, collapse of the national healthcare system, supply chain disruptions and disruption of social order. And the cherry on top- this is a 100 year opportunity that will undoubtedly be taken advantage of by adversaries to further their own policies and agendas and upset the apple cart of the global balance of power.

I wish wardrooms were a little less Animal House and a little more von Clausewitz.

Saying this from a place of love for you all.

Go ahead, flame on- I'll make some popcorn.

Because you are the first person to say what you said on THIS forum means the rest of us are non-strategic thinkers? Check our egos indeed! Come on down to TIAA Bank Stadium in a few days. I'm sure you'll see a lot of people wearing military uniform who just never saw this coming. Some will be my soldiers. I might even be there personally.

How many CBRN, civil aircraft accident, medevac exercises have you participated in? Do you fly, own or operate aircraft with the capability to talk to local first responders? Do you practice doing so? Have you used a military aircraft to rescue personnel INCONUS?

I'm just one person on this site that has done all of this on a regular basis. I know there are others who fly civilian EMS and do similar training and operations. How is it again that you arrived at your conclusion, resulting in your asking us to check our egos?

 

[scoolbubba]

Just heard a rumor that CPRW-11 held an all hands meeting in the hangar to discuss ways to mitigate COVID-19. I hope it’s not true, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was.

Top. Men.

 

[KTBQ]

The attitude on my particular base is very much “don’t expect any major impacts, carry on smartly. No confirmed cases here so nothing to worry about, limited flight schedule remains in effect. Wash your hands and social distance, but do it at work unless you can telework.” I saw something ludicrous about if DON civilians wanted to be tested on base at the clinic, they needed a signed request on command letterhead to be considered eligible. One of the worst examples of bureaucratic garbage I’ve ever seen.

It very much feels like the Navy has its head in the sand on this one and I fear for the consequences.

 

[Jim123]

Just heard a rumor that CPRW-11 held an all hands meeting in the hangar to discuss ways to mitigate COVID-19. I hope it’s not true, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was.

Top. Men.

That's the fast track plan to herd immunity.

 

[Maxillarious]

Because you are the first person to say what you said on THIS forum means the rest of us are non-strategic thinkers? Check our egos indeed! Come on down to TIAA Bank Stadium in a few days. I'm sure you'll see a lot of people wearing military uniform who just never saw this coming. Some will be my soldiers. I might even be there personally.

How many CBRN, civil aircraft accident, medevac exercises have you participated in? Do you fly, own or operate aircraft with the capability to talk to local first responders? Do you practice doing so? Have you used a military aircraft to rescue personnel INCONUS?

I'm just one person on this site that has done all of this on a regular basis. I know there are others who fly civilian EMS and do similar training and operations. How is it again that you arrived at your conclusion, resulting in your asking us to check our egos?

There are four dozen confirmed infected among the Pentagon right now. Yeah, somebody didn't see this coming.

Write all the OPLANS you want, play all the little exercises and tabletops you want. Doesn't do any good if people waited this long to put them into effect.

The bed has been beshit.