The only way to effectively reduce that risk is to have everyone chill at home for a few weeks to break the chain. I imagine we'll all end up in some form of lockdown for a three to six weeks to help it burnout and then public health folks can set a fire watch.
And for the hospitals with ICU beds: heart attacks, strokes, seizures etc are still coming in their doors.
Just stay away from people isn’t just simple shit. Just stop making money. Stop getting food. Stop society from melting down while kids and parents living hand to mouth are on the streets without an income. Simple shit.Just stay safe everyone. We all know how. Stay away from people. wash your hands...........and you have to deploy, follow command guidance. Fucking simple shit.
The next couple of weeks are going to be the most productive period of meme creation in history. @FrankTheTank is today's meme hero.
Those certainly are very big numbers, but the projected deaths still amounts to 0.3% of the US population, most of whom will be over 60.The flu is endemic. There is herd immunity to many strains, vaccines for others, and the flu virus has evolved into a niche in our ecosystem that’s relatively stable.
The concern isn’t that COVID19 is going to stay where it’s at. It that virtually no one is immune yet, which means it is going to spread through the entire human population like wildfire. And it’s about 10 times as lethal as the flu. South Korea, last I heard, was showing an 0.7 percent mortality rate.
There are about 331 million people in the US. If 40 percent of them get COVID19, that means 331M times 40 percent, times 0.7 percent will die. That’s 926,800 people, between 22 and 57 times more than died of flu.
The question is whether we can either drive the 40 percent number down through social distancing, or somehow keep the at-risk people from overwhelming the healthcare system. If, say, 15 percent of patients need serious care, and 40 percent of the population is infected eventually, that’s 331M times 40 percent, times 15 percent is 19 million people needing care. That’s the entire population of NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and half of Philly . . . combined.
This is why we need to distance. If a group that size gets sick quickly, we’re fucked. If it takes months, the system may be able to handle it.
I wonder if we'll hit Peak Meme.The next couple of weeks are going to be the most productive period of meme creation in history. @FrankTheTank is today's meme hero.
...we can't stomach the fact that Gramma Ethyl can die from a strain of SARS...
Too soon to tell if airline pilots are more or less infected. But according to the Department of Labor, they're in a higher risk profession because of their "physical proximity to others" https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.htmlDo you have any evidence showing higher rates of infection for airline pilots or reservists than the general public? I’ve seen nothing showing that. Everyone is a vector for this thing...
The story has obviously changed from when I posted that but it's still being put out that if people follow the guide lines being put out about social distancing, washing hands, self quarantining, etc. that the this is a relative short term health crisis (couple months). The economic impact is anyone's guess. The more the media spreads panic, the bigger the economic impact. They need to stick to facts without the fear mongering. I just watched one "expert medical doctor" say there were over 200,000 undiagnosed cases in Ohio alone. That's pure fear mongering speculation.HAL,
Are the public health experts at The Show still advising you this is no big deal? Or are they advising you to sit at home and post dumb memes?
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