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COVID-19

Gatordev

Well-Known Member
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
The only way to effectively reduce that risk is to have everyone chill at home for a few weeks to break the chain. I imagine we'll all end up in some form of lockdown for a three to six weeks to help it burnout and then public health folks can set a fire watch.

Except all of the health care providers and their support staff, whose numbers are not insignificant, who still have to go into the heart of it.

And for the hospitals with ICU beds: heart attacks, strokes, seizures etc are still coming in their doors.

And all of the various EMS responses that also have to pick them up and then deliver them to living petri dish. <shudder>

It seems like our call volume has gone down and the completely anecdotal guessing is that people aren't making as many 911 calls, which in turn is causing our calls to go down. That still doesn't stop the knucklehead who runs himself off the road and scalps himself.
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Just stay safe everyone. We all know how. Stay away from people. wash your hands...........and you have to deploy, follow command guidance. Fucking simple shit.
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
Just stay safe everyone. We all know how. Stay away from people. wash your hands...........and you have to deploy, follow command guidance. Fucking simple shit.
Just stay away from people isn’t just simple shit. Just stop making money. Stop getting food. Stop society from melting down while kids and parents living hand to mouth are on the streets without an income. Simple shit.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
The flu is endemic. There is herd immunity to many strains, vaccines for others, and the flu virus has evolved into a niche in our ecosystem that’s relatively stable.

The concern isn’t that COVID19 is going to stay where it’s at. It that virtually no one is immune yet, which means it is going to spread through the entire human population like wildfire. And it’s about 10 times as lethal as the flu. South Korea, last I heard, was showing an 0.7 percent mortality rate.

There are about 331 million people in the US. If 40 percent of them get COVID19, that means 331M times 40 percent, times 0.7 percent will die. That’s 926,800 people, between 22 and 57 times more than died of flu.

The question is whether we can either drive the 40 percent number down through social distancing, or somehow keep the at-risk people from overwhelming the healthcare system. If, say, 15 percent of patients need serious care, and 40 percent of the population is infected eventually, that’s 331M times 40 percent, times 15 percent is 19 million people needing care. That’s the entire population of NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and half of Philly . . . combined.

This is why we need to distance.
If a group that size gets sick quickly, we’re fucked. If it takes months, the system may be able to handle it.
Those certainly are very big numbers, but the projected deaths still amounts to 0.3% of the US population, most of whom will be over 60.

In the meantime we're making policy decisions that are decimating the economy, putting millions of Americans into economic hardship, and weakening our national defense because we can't stomach the fact that Gramma Ethyl can die from a strain of SARS.

Sidenote: If there's anything we do that wouldn't be considered 'mission essential' if it were turned off for a month or more, then we shouldn't ever do it.
 
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PhrogLoop

Adulting is hard
pilot
Do you have any evidence showing higher rates of infection for airline pilots or reservists than the general public? I’ve seen nothing showing that. Everyone is a vector for this thing...
Too soon to tell if airline pilots are more or less infected. But according to the Department of Labor, they're in a higher risk profession because of their "physical proximity to others" https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html
 

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
HAL,

Are the public health experts at The Show still advising you this is no big deal? Or are they advising you to sit at home and post dumb memes?
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
HAL,

Are the public health experts at The Show still advising you this is no big deal? Or are they advising you to sit at home and post dumb memes?
The story has obviously changed from when I posted that but it's still being put out that if people follow the guide lines being put out about social distancing, washing hands, self quarantining, etc. that the this is a relative short term health crisis (couple months). The economic impact is anyone's guess. The more the media spreads panic, the bigger the economic impact. They need to stick to facts without the fear mongering. I just watched one "expert medical doctor" say there were over 200,000 undiagnosed cases in Ohio alone. That's pure fear mongering speculation.

The airlines seem to be negotiating paid leaves of absences, etc. rather than furloughs. If they thought this would be long term they would be furloughing instead. So far all my airline's cuts have been in places that have quarantines - Australia, New Zealand, Korea. Pus we did not cut Japan capacity but delayed for 2 months a scheduled increase. They have announced there will more temporary capacity decreases but not what yet. But all cuts are only through May.

Memes are humor and what better way to fight panic and boredom than with humor.

You don't like my memes, put me on ignore.

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