COVID-19

[Sam I am]

Here's an article and some science that give some time frames around the virus.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24...0Qjtd1_nod9rylobbFPKaI5P5QYAzcEvCF6Y0feJAo1iA

 

[bubblehead]

Man.. Buddy of mine in my Reserve unit flies with one of the majors. Texted me yesterday that he was flying a trip and on one of them the aircraft only had seven PAX..

Lord..

 

[OscarMyers]

Man.. Buddy of mine in my Reserve unit flies with one of the majors. Texted me yesterday that he was flying a trip and on one of them the aircraft only had seven PAX..

Lord..

This was my Delta flight from Detroit to Tokyo on March 7th for that Army boondoggle. It was pretty much the norm for all of my flights back too except the Denver to Norfolk leg. This was an A350-900 for context.

 

[Gatordev]

Picked up my first patient last night that triggered COVID-19 protocols. Everyone is pretty sure the guy just had pneumonia, but it was interesting to see the process work out. There were lots of spectators in the ER, as well, watching the process. It was 1am, so not many patients, but I think a lot of the staff were using it as a self-training opportunity. Plus the one or two peanut gallery nurses that wanted to second guess the process.

Worst part: the crew wiping down everything in the back afterwards (which is normal), but not entirely sure they got everything, even if there was nothing to get.

 

[Jbyrne89]

I wonder which version of Fox News will fall flat.

Seriously though, my parents are Deplorables, and when I talked to them, they were like, "It's no big deal, no worse that flu, look how many die in that, I'm not giving up my freedoms, I'm heading to the mall." They got this from Fox binge watching and of course from Dear Leader.

People's lives will be lost due to this months' of gaslighting.

I love this post here - so true. I bartend on weekends in a little town outside of Boston and a lot of my regulars are 60+ and on a steady diet of Fox News. I wore gloves and brought hand sanitizer to my last shift before the state shut all the bars and restaurants down. I would've preferred not to go in, but I kind of needed the money (haha). All the regulars were completely and totally outraged by someone taking coronavirus seriously - to the point of actually shouting at me and at management. Others were just casually like "well, you're either stupid or naive but I'm not sure which." Many of them were convinced that this is nothing more than a strain of the flu and that the liberal media and "over educated coastal elites" (Doctors...I guess...?) have overhyped it as a way to undermine the president. In fact, one guy said he believed that the virus was real but that the Bidens, the Clintons, the Chinese, the Ukrainians, and Muslims all collaborated to spread the virus to weaken Trump's economy going into the general election. When I heard that one I was tempted to cut him off haha.

That being said, I was prorec-y on the last SWO board and still have no OCS date and I'm kind of freaking out haha

 

[Jim123]

You'll be fine. Just try to avoid BOXER when it comes time for ship selection. (Apparently the international deep state cabal successfully infected a member of her crew.)

 

[Sam I am]

Many of them were convinced that this is nothing more than a strain of the flu and that the liberal media and "over educated coastal elites" (Doctors...I guess...?) have overhyped it as a way to undermine the president. In fact, one guy said he believed that the virus was real but that the Bidens, the Clintons, the Chinese, the Ukrainians, and Muslims all collaborated to spread the virus to weaken Trump's economy going into the general election.

It's disturbing how much traction this theory has amongst Trump supporters (especially older ones). They really believe it.

 

[GroundPounder]

I love this post here - so true. I bartend on weekends in a little town outside of Boston and a lot of my regulars are 60+ and on a steady diet of Fox News. I wore gloves and brought hand sanitizer to my last shift before the state shut all the bars and restaurants down. I would've preferred not to go in, but I kind of needed the money (haha). All the regulars were completely and totally outraged by someone taking coronavirus seriously - to the point of actually shouting at me and at management. Others were just casually like "well, you're either stupid or naive but I'm not sure which." Many of them were convinced that this is nothing more than a strain of the flu and that the liberal media and "over educated coastal elites" (Doctors...I guess...?) have overhyped it as a way to undermine the president. In fact, one guy said he believed that the virus was real but that the Bidens, the Clintons, the Chinese, the Ukrainians, and Muslims all collaborated to spread the virus to weaken Trump's economy going into the general election. When I heard that one I was tempted to cut him off haha.

That being said, I was prorec-y on the last SWO board and still have no OCS date and I'm kind of freaking out haha

23 Jan 2020 NBC Channel 10 Boston

Already this season, between 2,000 and 3,000 Massachusetts residents have been hospitalized with the flu, and there have been 15,000 to 20,000 emergency room visits.
"Flu vaccination is our best protection against illness," said Dr. Larry Madoff, medical director for the Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences. "People also should remember to wash their hands, cover their cough and sneeze, and stay home when they are sick to limit the spread of disease."

Did you feel uncomfortable coming to work in January? Probably not. In addition, as it stands now, the flu posed a greater risk to you than COVID 19, based on the fact that you are young and healthy enough to seek a military commission.

I would probably fall into the category of the people that you reference, in that I think that the response is disproportionate the the threat that we face. Next year this time, when flu deaths far outpace the COVID-19 outbreak, will we have basketball games, soccer games, The Masters, etc..... I think we will.

I do not think this is some conspiracy, or a product of new organizations. It's not a Democratic or Republican construct. It's a real disease that does threaten the health of people exposed, especially older people, with compromised immune systems and underlying health problems. That being said, I think everyone would be better served by reporting that goes into the numbers of people that are recovering, and how many people recover without hospitalization. I have a conference call every day on this topic as it pertains to my profession, and I think if some of those facts were in common circulation, that some of the hysteria that is being displayed would subside.

The below data is for Italy, one if the hardest hit areas in the West.

Data for Italy as of 18 March 2020

ACTIVE CASES
26,062
Currently Infected Patients
24,002 (92%)
in Mild Condition

2,060 (8%)
Serious or Critical

 

[AllYourBass]

That being said, I think everyone would be better served by reporting that goes into the numbers...

But there's a tricky problem here unique to COVID-19. The numbers right now are absolutely bananas. Testing is inconsistent (India barely tests at all right now) and unavailable for most the world over. And that's where all of our data is coming from -- the rest is just guessing.

The numbers we have are getting reported...we're all just really bad at getting the numbers right now.

 

[taxi1]

23 Jan 2020 NBC Channel 10 Boston

Already this season, between 2,000 and 3,000 Massachusetts residents have been hospitalized with the flu, and there have been 15,000 to 20,000 emergency room visits.
"Flu vaccination is our best protection against illness," said Dr. Larry Madoff, medical director for the Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences. "People also should remember to wash their hands, cover their cough and sneeze, and stay home when they are sick to limit the spread of disease."

Did you feel uncomfortable coming to work in January? Probably not. In addition, as it stands now, the flu posed a greater risk to you than COVID 19, based on the fact that you are young and healthy enough to seek a military commission.

I would probably fall into the category of the people that you reference, in that I think that the response is disproportionate the the threat that we face. Next year this time, when flu deaths far outpace the COVID-19 outbreak, will we have basketball games, soccer games, The Masters, etc..... I think we will.

You brought up Italy. What evidence do you have that this isn't our near future? They have modern medicine and the flu there too.

Lessons From Italy’s Hospital Meltdown. ‘Every Day You Lose, the Contagion Gets Worse.’

The coronavirus is pushing a wealthy region with high-tech health care toward a humanitarian disaster, a warning for the U.S. and other developed countries. The experience shows how the pandemic is upending the rules.

www.wsj.com

 

[ABMD]

So I know a few of the BioChem Phd's (the really smart guys) that work at APG, guys that actually deploy, set-up and work in biochem labs and/or study bio weapons for the DoD. Their response...plan for the worst, hope for the best, full stop. Their responses didn't seem to imply this was the end of the world.

That's all I got. Now back to your regularly scheduled Meme show...

 

[wink]

The "numbers" may be a mess. Then why only promote the most dire predictions based on unreliable data? Why go to GQ over that? Oh yeah, abundance of caution. But at what cost?

Do the airlines post signs at the gate about the worse case scenario out of an abundance of caution? Does the public truly consider the worse case when they pull out of their driveway? 685 people die EVERY day due to medical errors. That is the third largest cause of death in the US. It is far more preventable then COVID 19. Where are the public service announcements warning people about the worse case if they see the doc? Where is the public national effort to save those lives?

We have lost perspective. I see lots of big numbers. What do they really mean? It is like we are scope locked on getting a number down with little regard to a true cost benefit analysis. Especially when those numbers are predictions based on rapidly changing data and disregard for future mitigating factors.

As to trusting experts, most were wrong about every recent epidemic from AIDS to Bird Flu. Remember that, you know it as H5N1, right? Experts have various legit opinions. But we only see the most grave opinions promoted. Worse, any contrary opinion, no matter the expert's qualifications, is down played or rejected out right as kook denial.

 

[picklesuit]

Best thing to come out of COVID-19...I will have an entire year without running the PFA (Operational waive last cycle, Excused this cycle...BE?)

#BREAKINGNEWS: SPRING 2020 PFA (NAVADMIN 071/20)

This NAVADMIN announces immediate suspension of the Navy physical readiness program physical fitness assessment (PFA) for Cycle 1, 2020 to minimize the risk from COVID-19 to Sailors and adhere to social distancing requirements. All personnel will be excused from participation in Cycle 1, 2020, including those who have already completed the PFA.

2. Suspension includes both the official Body Composition Assessment and Physical Readiness Test components of the PFA.
a. All official PFA records affected by this policy will be updated by the Physical Readiness Program office. The Physical Readiness Program office will work with Bureau of Naval Personnel (BUPERS) On-line to EXCUSE all Service Members in the Physical Readiness Information Management System (PRIMS) for Cycle 1, 2020. Commands that have already begun or completed the official PFA testing should stop immediately and take no further action in PRIMS. Commands that have not started the PFA should not enter any data in PRIMS for Cycle 1 2020.

b. All Navy commands are directed to immediately suspend all organized or group physical training (PT) (i.e. Command, Department or Division PT and the Fitness Enhancement Program) until further notice.

c. Exceptions to paragraph 2.a and 2.b for accessions missions (e.g. recruit training) and unit mission training requirements may be granted by the appropriate Echelon II commander with authority to delegate to the first flag officer in the chain of command.

3. Enlisted Service Members with a Soft End of Active Obligated Service before 30 July 2020 who are ineligible for retention or cannot submit a Career Waypoint (C-WAY) application due to adverse evaluations as a result of past PFA failure history and desire to stay Navy are authorized an extension to regain eligibility with command endorsement as follows:

a. Requested extension length should be of sufficient duration to allow for processing of a future special evaluation and application in C-WAY (if applicable), but must not exceed 30 September 2020.

b. Because this is an exception to policy, this action will not require a C-WAY quota (if applicable).

c. Once the Service Member successfully passes the official Cycle 2, 2020 PFA and has retention eligibility restored from the Commanding Officer (CO), the Service Member can submit their reenlistment/extension request directly to their CO, or BUPERS Enlisted Community Manager for enlisted Service Members who must use C-WAY. For Nuclear-trained Service Members, all requests must be submitted via their CO to Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Nuclear Program Manager. In all cases, PRIMS results must show the Cycle 2, 2020 results.

4. Officers who may be impacted by this NAVADMIN should contact the Officer Performance and Separations Branch.

5. Points of Contact.
a. Physical Readiness Program. AMCS Eric Anderson, Physical Fitness Branch, at (901)-874-4376, DSN 882 or via email at eric.anderson(at)navy(dot)mil.

b. Personnel Issues. MyNavy Career Center, 1-833-330-6622 or via e-mail at askmncc(at)navy(dot)mil.

6. This NAVADMIN will remain in effect until superseded or
canceled, whichever occurs first.

7. Released by Vice Admiral John B. Nowell, Jr, N1

 

[Jim123]

But.... plank!

 

[taxi1]

The "numbers" may be a mess. Then why only promote the most dire predictions based on unreliable data?

China, South Korea, Italy, and a lot of European countries are providing us cold, hard data on what is coming and what it took to beat it down. Those are empirical observations. Reliable data.

I agree that no one has just "lied back and enjoyed it" yet to see how that works out.