COVID-19

[Treetop Flyer]

Waiting for the MARADMIN changing the PFT to four miles to increase social distancing

 

[Treetop Flyer]

China, South Korea, Italy, and a lot of European countries are providing us cold, hard data on what is coming and what it took to beat it down. Those are empirical observations. Reliable data.

I agree that no one has just "lied back and enjoyed it" yet to see how that works out.

If China says something, they’re lying. The rest of your point stands.

 

[HAL Pilot]

...to the point of actually shouting at me...

Good preview of your upcoming SWO life.

 

[Jim123]

Waiting for the MARADMIN changing the PFT to four miles to increase social distancing

The PFT run length vs the PRT 1.5 always makes me think of that line in Kingpin when the kid tells Roy Munson why he bowls 15 frames instead of 10 is because the Amish always make everything harder than it has to be.

 

[wink]

China, South Korea, Italy, and a lot of European countries are providing us cold, hard data on what is coming and what it took to beat it down. Those are empirical observations. Reliable data.

I agree that no one has just "lied back and enjoyed it" yet to see how that works out.

I was quoting someone above that said the numbers were messy. Even then, empirical observations can be all over the place. They are observations of a point in time. It takes analysis to make sense of it. The devil is in the analysis. The article posted by @Treetop Flyer makes the point. Not saying who is right. Just that we have gone all in, at great cost, when there is still a lot to learn.

About those other countries. Useful sure. But how useful for the US. And how are we adjusting to their experience as it continues to roll in. China, if you believe them, is on the other side, in how many weeks? And at what cost in lives? Is there any doubt we can do better? South Korea has done well. They are just one of two countries with a lower death rate then the US. And yes, they to are beginning to emerge from the peak. They had a lot of experience with MERs and the Asian epidemic du jour. Their cases have dropped precipitously and is flattening. South Korea would not even be in the top 5 if it weren't for the cluster around that messianic church that brought in new cases. Italy, like South Korea has a modern health care system, but do you know how it is different to the US? Italy has just reported that 99% of their deaths came from people with underling serious medical issues. In my mind, more evidence that bringing a country, an economy, to it knees to protect an identifiable minuscule percentage of at risk people is over kill.

Italy is not the US. South Korea is not the US and the Chicoms most certainly not. Everything from elder care, demographics, transportation, mobility, nutrition, public sanitation, communication and civic mindedness differ between those countries and the US. The responses to the virus in each of those countries was different. Yet each seems to be getting through the worst of it within weeks, not many months. I don't see anyone in the US changing their long term shut down strategy with the knowledge that others are already showing real improvements. Learning from Italian and South Korean data indeed. Guess we are waiting for Germany to blow up to justify our response.

 

[taxi1]

About those other countries. Useful sure. But how useful for the US. And how are we adjusting to their experience as it continues to roll in.

There's quite a bit of data out there to suggest where we are going based on where we are at. This seems useful. The good news is there are a bunch of countries ahead of us to learn from. The bad news is we waited a long time to start learning from them. We could have been like Hong Kong and Singapore.

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

 

[IwannabeaPHROGdvr69]

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersec...rus-fears-to-spread-misinformation-in-western

 

[robav8r]

I was quoting someone above that said the numbers were messy. Even then, empirical observations can be all over the place. They are observations of a point in time. It takes analysis to make sense of it. The devil is in the analysis. The article posted by @Treetop Flyer makes the point. Not saying who is right. Just that we have gone all in, at great cost, when there is still a lot to learn.

About those other countries. Useful sure. But how useful for the US. And how are we adjusting to their experience as it continues to roll in. China, if you believe them, is on the other side, in how many weeks? And at what cost in lives? Is there any doubt we can do better? South Korea has done well. They are just one of two countries with a lower death rate then the US. And yes, they to are beginning to emerge from the peak. They had a lot of experience with MERs and the Asian epidemic du jour. Their cases have dropped precipitously and is flattening. South Korea would not even be in the top 5 if it weren't for the cluster around that messianic church that brought in new cases. Italy, like South Korea has a modern health care system, but do you know how it is different to the US? Italy has just reported that 99% of their deaths came from people with underling serious medical issues. In my mind, more evidence that bringing a country, an economy, to it knees to protect an identifiable minuscule percentage of at risk people is over kill.

Italy is not the US. South Korea is not the US and the Chicoms most certainly not. Everything from elder care, demographics, transportation, mobility, nutrition, public sanitation, communication and civic mindedness differ between those countries and the US. The responses to the virus in each of those countries was different. Yet each seems to be getting through the worst of it within weeks, not many months. I don't see anyone in the US changing their long term shut down strategy with the knowledge that others are already showing real improvements. Learning from Italian and South Korean data indeed. Guess we are waiting for Germany to blow up to justify our response.

Agree with your analysis Wink. This article is interesting as well . . . .

 

[Swanee]

There's quite a bit of data out there to suggest where we are going based on where we are at. This seems useful. The good news is there are a bunch of countries ahead of us to learn from. The bad news is we waited a long time to start learning from them. We could have been like Hong Kong and Singapore.

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

What does this graph look like when you normalize for population and population density (like we do with aviation mishaps per 100,000 flight hour)?

Just because the USA had 5 airplane crashes last week doesn't mean that Lithuania is doing better because they only had 3 in the same time.

 

[taxi1]

What does this graph look like when you normalize for population and population density (like we do with aviation mishaps per 100,000 flight hour)?

That’s a different kind of thing to reason about. This is about uncontrolled growth rate.

What this plot tells you is that if you start with a few infected in a country that is small, large, European, Asian, American, rural, urban, that without mitigating actions like Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore the growth rate is about 33% per day.

If you do normalize the population and also the starting number of sick as the same proportion of the population, you’ll get the same curve for Latvia and the US.

 

[zippy]

Best thing to come out of COVID-19...I will have an entire year without running the PFA (Operational waive last cycle, Excused this cycle...BE?)

#BREAKINGNEWS: SPRING 2020 PFA (NAVADMIN 071/20)

This NAVADMIN announces immediate suspension of the Navy physical readiness program physical fitness assessment (PFA) for Cycle 1, 2020 to minimize the risk from COVID-19 to Sailors and adhere to social distancing requirements. All personnel will be excused from participation in Cycle 1, 2020, including those who have already completed the PFA.

2. Suspension includes both the official Body Composition Assessment and Physical Readiness Test components of the PFA.
a. All official PFA records affected by this policy will be updated by the Physical Readiness Program office. The Physical Readiness Program office will work with Bureau of Naval Personnel (BUPERS) On-line to EXCUSE all Service Members in the Physical Readiness Information Management System (PRIMS) for Cycle 1, 2020. Commands that have already begun or completed the official PFA testing should stop immediately and take no further action in PRIMS. Commands that have not started the PFA should not enter any data in PRIMS for Cycle 1 2020.

b. All Navy commands are directed to immediately suspend all organized or group physical training (PT) (i.e. Command, Department or Division PT and the Fitness Enhancement Program) until further notice.

c. Exceptions to paragraph 2.a and 2.b for accessions missions (e.g. recruit training) and unit mission training requirements may be granted by the appropriate Echelon II commander with authority to delegate to the first flag officer in the chain of command.

3. Enlisted Service Members with a Soft End of Active Obligated Service before 30 July 2020 who are ineligible for retention or cannot submit a Career Waypoint (C-WAY) application due to adverse evaluations as a result of past PFA failure history and desire to stay Navy are authorized an extension to regain eligibility with command endorsement as follows:

a. Requested extension length should be of sufficient duration to allow for processing of a future special evaluation and application in C-WAY (if applicable), but must not exceed 30 September 2020.

b. Because this is an exception to policy, this action will not require a C-WAY quota (if applicable).

c. Once the Service Member successfully passes the official Cycle 2, 2020 PFA and has retention eligibility restored from the Commanding Officer (CO), the Service Member can submit their reenlistment/extension request directly to their CO, or BUPERS Enlisted Community Manager for enlisted Service Members who must use C-WAY. For Nuclear-trained Service Members, all requests must be submitted via their CO to Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Nuclear Program Manager. In all cases, PRIMS results must show the Cycle 2, 2020 results.

4. Officers who may be impacted by this NAVADMIN should contact the Officer Performance and Separations Branch.

5. Points of Contact.
a. Physical Readiness Program. AMCS Eric Anderson, Physical Fitness Branch, at (901)-874-4376, DSN 882 or via email at eric.anderson(at)navy(dot)mil.

b. Personnel Issues. MyNavy Career Center, 1-833-330-6622 or via e-mail at askmncc(at)navy(dot)mil.

6. This NAVADMIN will remain in effect until superseded or
canceled, whichever occurs first.

7. Released by Vice Admiral John B. Nowell, Jr, N1

Now commands need to have at least divisional and then departmental level quarters to discuss changes to the Navy PFA policy before it is addressed at the next command wide safety stand down...

 

[exNavyOffRec]

China, South Korea, Italy, and a lot of European countries are providing us cold, hard data on what is coming and what it took to beat it down. Those are empirical observations. Reliable data.

I agree that no one has just "lied back and enjoyed it" yet to see how that works out.

There was an interesting discussion on the radio today, what their point was is that while there are good testing and fatality numbers out of several countries there are variables that can make make correlations not as direct, smoking is very prevalent in China, Italy has much older population, etc..... and then here we have the issue what they said is the backlog of test, something like the next 2 days of test results will be of samples from the past 5 days? and then they have people that passed away that may have been due to flu or may have been due to COVID-19 so more deaths may attributed to COVID-19 as well, I was under the impression that all that any suspected deaths to COVID-19 had already been tested.

 

[HAL Pilot]

Don't need a meme today....the news provides....

Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Used For Coronavirus Patients

 

[Sam I am]

I still can't believe how many people I see on fb travelling to vacation spots, spring breakers, and even family trips. I mean...dumb. A neighborhood family's daughter went to FL for Spring Break. Afterward everyone will wonder how it spread so fast.

 

[Gonzo08]

Afterward everyone will wonder how it spread so fast.

Idiots. That's how.