COVID-19

[Flash]

So you’re saying we’re only two weeks away?

View attachment 28644View attachment 28645

With cases, hospitalizations and deaths at an all time high in this country this month, I'd say that 'surge' is already here.

Nice random charts BTW.

 

[SlickAg]

With cases, hospitalizations and deaths at an all time high in this country this month, I'd say that 'surge' is already here.

Nice random charts BTW.

Thanks, glad you like them! This is where I got them, you really ought to read some of his work.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1343301300306362368

Since I assume you haven’t been going out at all due to the pandemic surge and have some spare time on your hands, you ought to give this paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association a read as well. TLDR: symptomatic patients infect family members 18% of the time but asymptomatic ones do so only .7% of the time. Turns out asymptomatic spread is magnitudes lower than previously thought. You actually can’t question it because it’s science and it’s published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines evidence for household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), disaggregated by several covariates, and compares it with other coronaviruses

jamanetwork.com

 

[DanMa1156]

Can you imagine how morale would be if we were back in the early 90's when there was no or very limited email on ships and the main communication was letters? The thought of going on a deployment with no port calls is not an enjoyable one.

Ultimately, it comes down to expectation management. When you expect to go to port calls and see the world after joining the Navy and then you never do, it's disappointing. The same can be said for today's modern Sailors who expect they can send an email probably daily, but they don't expect their ration of whisky or grog, so they don't have heartburn on not getting that. But again, manage their expectations... go two weeks past 45 days without a port call in sight and no mention of a beer day, they will be grumbling.

 

[Birdbrain]

“Back in my day” is what I’m going to expect to hear a lot of in the coming years under “Covid mitigation”

 

[Treetop Flyer]

I assume the bold part is sarcastic?

As far as port calls go... I think we are years away from what we knew as port calls. I think you'll see more beer on the piers, but personal opinion, leaderhip on the 4 star level talks the game of "caring about morale" while underway, but doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. I really think we are several years away from "real" port calls again.

Separately, damage has been done to America's reputation as a clean, hygienic society. Assuming everyone will suddenly allow us back in is also a bad assumption in the short-medium term. I'll use Operation Christmas Drop as an example: look how many countries declined participation this year, supposedly because they were worried about receiving items from "dirty American hands."

I’ll stay up nights worrying about the damage done to America’s reputation as a clean, hygienic society. I guess all of Western Europe took a big rep hit too.

 

[ABMD]

I don’t think the mask wearing has had a hard time being accepted in America; in my experience it’s been quite the opposite. When ships are sinking people scramble about the decks to find whatever will help them stay afloat; they just don’t want to spend an inordinate amount of time waiting to get rescued. That’s what I see happening here. People were willing to put up with restrictions and measures because they were assured by people they trusted that it was only “temporary”.

If you look at normalized positive tests, meaning not raw numbers but adjusted for amount of tests given, the “Thanksgiving surge” wasn’t a thing. But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms. Just goes to show that graphs can be made to look super scary if that’s what the graph maker intends.

This is exactly what my wife's family did before we planned to have 30+ people in and out of the same house for a week. Found out my sister-in-law was positive so all plans had been cancelled. We are rescheduling for a few weeks from now after she tests negative, but better believe we are all testing before any of us gets together.

 

[taxi1]

Thanks, glad you like them! This is where I got them, you really ought to read some of his work.

I’ll play.

First, why not call his metric positivity rate?

Second, he doesn’t talk about how testing has evolved. Early pandemic testing was focused (much greater likelihood of person getting tested having it) due to limited testing. Current testing far more randomized. You highlighted this point when you said “But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms.” You would expect the positivity rate to go down. It didn’t.

Third, and biggest fail, he ignores the surge in hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[SlickAg]

I’ll play.

First, why not call his metric positivity rate?

Second, he doesn’t talk about how testing has evolved. Early pandemic testing was focused (much greater likelihood of person getting tested having it) due to limited testing. Current testing far more randomized. You highlighted this point when you said “But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms.” You would expect the positivity rate to go down. It didn’t.

Third, and biggest fail, he ignores the surge in hospitalizations and deaths.

First off, I thought wearing masks would solve all of this? Isn’t that what you were saying this spring? Also, did you get a chance to read that UF paper talking about asymptomatic spread?

As far as testing goes, we now know that the PCR threshold is extremely low and the “cases” to which everyone refers have an extremely high rate of asymptomatic positives.

Hospitalizations and deaths are going up in the winter just like people predicted. Flu deaths are basically non-existent. How do you explain that phenomenon? Also, how come California, which has had the “best” lockdowns so far is the epicenter of this current surge? Further, one article I read about a hospital in LA said its main issue is staffing problems. The article doesn’t mention why, but a separate study has shown 1 out of every 7 workers in LA (which includes medical personnel) has had to leave the workforce due to having to take care of schoolchildren aged 3 to 12 due to school closures.

 

[SlickAg]

This is exactly what my wife's family did before we planned to have 30+ people in and out of the same house for a week. Found out my sister-in-law was positive so all plans had been cancelled. We are rescheduling for a few weeks from now after she tests negative, but better believe we are all testing before any of us gets together.

Was she symptomatic?

 

[taxi1]

As far as testing goes, we now know that the PCR threshold is extremely low and the “cases” to which everyone refers have an extremely high rate of asymptomatic positives.

You keep making my point for me. So we’re now

• sampling much more randomly, and
• we’ve shifted from solely PCR tests with the extremely high false positives to the majority now being antigen tests that have a much lower false positive rate,

yet the positivity rate stays the same. That tells you we’re in a surge.

 

[SlickAg]

You keep making my point for me. So we’re now

• sampling much more randomly, and
• we’ve shifted from solely PCR tests with the extremely high false positives to the majority now being antigen tests that have a much lower false positive rate,

yet the positivity rate stays the same. That tells you we’re in a surge.

Show me some data that shows nationwide where we’ve shifted from PCR tests to antigen tests.

So counting asymptomatic people as “positive cases” is why you’re saying we’re in a surge? Let me guess, we’re still two weeks away? Is the Army National Guard and Reserve in each state getting called up to set up field hospitals?

Now, subtract the hospitalizations and deaths in say, California and a couple of other localized hot spots, and run the data from the rest of the country.

 

[Flash]

Thanks, glad you like them! This is where I got them, you really ought to read some of his work.

No thanks, I'll keep relying on the official data showing the rise in cases, hopitalizations and deaths and not some rando guy's Twitter claims about testing.

Since I assume you haven’t been going out at all due to the pandemic surge and have some spare time on your hands, you ought to give this paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association a read as well. TLDR: symptomatic patients infect family members 18% of the time but asymptomatic ones do so only .7% of the time. Turns out asymptomatic spread is magnitudes lower than previously thought. You actually can’t question it because it’s science and it’s published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines evidence for household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), disaggregated by several covariates, and compares it with other coronaviruses

jamanetwork.com

Okay, nice deflection. What about this absurd claim again?

If you look at normalized positive tests, meaning not raw numbers but adjusted for amount of tests given, the “Thanksgiving surge” wasn’t a thing.

Whatever spin you or whatever random dude you find on Twitter put on testing the rise in the numbers of hopitalizations and deaths after Thanksgiving belies your assertion.

 

[ABMD]

Was she symptomatic?

Not at time of test, but since getting the test has begun showing symptoms.

 

[SlickAg]

No thanks, I'll keep relying on the official data showing the rise in cases, hopitalizations and deaths and not some rando guy's Twitter claims about testing.



Okay, nice deflection. What about this absurd claim again?



Whatever spin you, or whatever random dude you find on Twitter, put on testing the rise in the numbers of hopitalizations and deaths after Thanksgiving belies your assertion.

So I'm not supposed to believe some random guy's Twitter claims, but I AM allowed to believe some random dudes' musings on AW instead? Got it.

What kind of a surge are you seeing in DC? What kind of a surge is @taxi1 seeing in State College? It must be just awful there since they allowed all the college students to come back this semester. I bet there was death and mayhem like no one has ever seen. Again, this is a local and regional issue. Like I said earlier, remove California and a couple of other states and I bet the numbers would be very different.

Ah yes, the official data. Pray tell, which official data are you using for your assertions? CDC, state, local, federal?

So you're saying the surge is due to Thanksgiving? And there's no way it's due to colder weather and it being the normal time when flu season takes a turn for the worse?

As for the "absurd claim", it's a paper published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association. You ought to try reading it. You also probably don't believe the results of the Danish mask study because it "goes against the science", right (you know, the RCT one that showed that those who wore masks and those who didn't still got infected at the same rate)?

 

[Treetop Flyer]

So I'm not supposed to believe some random guy's Twitter claims, but I AM allowed to believe some random dudes' musings on AW instead? Got it.

What kind of a surge are you seeing in DC? What kind of a surge is @taxi1 seeing in State College? It must be just awful there since they allowed all the college students to come back this semester. I bet there was death and mayhem like no one has ever seen. Again, this is a local and regional issue. Like I said earlier, remove California and a couple of other states and I bet the numbers would be very different.

Ah yes, the official data. Pray tell, which official data are you using for your assertions? CDC, state, local, federal?

So you're saying the surge is due to Thanksgiving? And there's no way it's due to colder weather and it being the normal time when flu season takes a turn for the worse?

As for the "absurd claim", it's a paper published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association. You ought to try reading it. You also probably don't believe the results of the Danish mask study because it "goes against the science", right (you know, the RCT one that showed that those who wore masks and those who didn't still got infected at the same rate)?

Masks work. We’ve already seen the circular logic as recently as yesterday on this thread. Masks work, if cases are spiking with mask mandates it’s because people aren’t wearing masks because.... masks work.