COVID-19

[Flash]

So I'm not supposed to believe some random guy's Twitter claims, but I AM allowed to believe some random dudes' musings on AW instead? Got it.

Not my musings, just data.

What kind of a surge are you seeing in DC? What kind of a surge is @taxi1 seeing in State College? It must be just awful there since they allowed all the college students to come back this semester. I bet there was death and mayhem like no one has ever seen. Again, this is a local and regional issue. Like I said earlier, remove California and a couple of other states and I bet the numbers would be very different.

Why not remove California, that's a great idea! It is just ~12% of the total US population so that makes perfect sense. Why not Texas too, with a higher number of deaths BTW, they like to think of themselves as the independent type! Such a fun game! Of course other places are being affected too unfortunately.

Ah yes, the official data. Pray tell, which official data are you using for your assertions? CDC, state, local, federal?

Federal, state, local...all of them. If you want to pick Google can help you find a few good sources. All of them show a dramatic rise in cases, hopitalizations and deaths in the past month. They aren't my assertions, just plain facts.

So you're saying the surge is due to Thanksgiving? And there's no way it's due to colder weather and it being the normal time when flu season takes a turn for the worse?

It just so happened the highest daily death toll in this country since the start of the pandemic happened 12 days after Thanksgiving, that included places like California, still part of this country, where the bitter cold in sweeping through LA and San Diego forced people to wear light jackets in the evening.

As for the "absurd claim", it's a paper published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association. You ought to try reading it. You also probably don't believe the results of the Danish mask study because it "goes against the science", right (you know, the RCT one that showed that those who wore masks and those who didn't still got infected at the same rate)?

Deflection again from your absurd claim. But hey, why not? Doctors and nurses have worn masks for all these years just because they are awesome fashion statements, who knew?

Keep fighting the good fight! Maybe those government oppressors who keep trying to make you wear a mask will finally give up on making you wear pants in public too!

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Not my musings, just data.



Why not remove California, that's a great idea! It is just ~12% of the total US population so that makes perfect sense. Why not Texas too, with a higher number of deaths BTW, they like to think of themselves as the independent type! Such a fun game! Of course other places are being affected too unfortunately.



Federal, state, local...all of them. If you want to pick Google can help you find a few good sources. All of them show a dramatic rise in cases, hopitalizations and deaths in the past month. They aren't my assertions, just plain facts.



It just so happened the highest daily death toll in this country since the start of the pandemic happened 12 days after Thanksgiving, that included places like California, still part of this country, where the bitter cold in sweeping through LA and San Diego forced people to wear light jackets in the evening.



Deflection again from your absurd claim. But hey, why not? Doctors and nurses have worn masks for all these years just because they are awesome fashion statements, who knew?

Keep fighting the good fight! Maybe those government oppressors who keep trying to make you wear a mask will finally give up on making you wear pants in public too!

I think his point is that California is getting its surge now largely because they didn’t get one before and because of the seasonal nature of respiratory viruses. Which means that the measures they took were pretty much worthless. Texas is largely back to normal and has been for a long time.

 

[SlickAg]

I think his point is that California is getting its surge now largely because they didn’t get one before and because of the seasonal nature of respiratory viruses. Which means that the measures they took were pretty much worthless. Texas is largely back to normal and has been for a long time.

Why bother, he’s on a roll.

But yes, I agree with you. If mask mandates and shutdowns were working so well, California should have the “best” metrics in the country instead of what they’ve got going on right now. I’m astonished at all of these people who’ve seen the results of lockdowns, masks, and shutdowns, and seem to think we just didn’t do it hard enough or long enough! I’m actually hoping more of the coronabros from this spring come out of the woodwork and talk about what a great job their beloved NPIs have done.

@Flash , I can’t force you to read that paper, but that “absurd claim” you keep harping on is their conclusion. Asymptomatic transmission is a fraction of symptomatic transmission among people staying at home after diagnosis. You can boohoo it all you want, but it’s facts and data and research and analysis. And then it was peer-reviewed.

 

[Flash]

@Flash , I can’t force you to read that paper, but that “absurd claim” you keep harping on is their conclusion. Asymptomatic transmission is a fraction of symptomatic transmission among people staying at home after diagnosis. You can boohoo it all you want, but it’s facts and data and research and analysis. And then it was peer-reviewed.

The absurd claim is all yours, that there wasn't a post-Thanksgiving surge.

 

[taxi1]

What kind of a surge is @taxi1 seeing in State College? It must be just awful there since they allowed all the college students to come back this semester.

It has gotten bad.

We ended up teaching most classes via Zoom, closed off all buildings, mandated randomized testing for all university students and employees in response to the growth in cases in October. Sent the students home at Thanksgiving, and now they aren't coming back for in person classes until mid-February due to the pandemic.

The local hospital was "full" at 41 COVID patients some time ago, but has been running in the mid-50s for patients since, sending excess to other hospitals. People that would otherwise be admitted are told to go home and monitor their Oxygen level, come back when it gets worse. My neighbor is a doctor at the hospital, so I get the intel. She got vaccinated last week, first shot, yay for her.

Good friend passed from COVID. Family had to settle for a Zoom session over an iPad as their last interaction with him.

Doctors and nurses have worn masks for all these years just because they are awesome fashion statements, who knew?

It boggles the mind

 

[SlickAg]

The absurd claim is all yours, that there wasn't a post-Thanksgiving surge.

The claim that normalized case data doesn’t show a huge rise post-Thanksgiving? I showed you some data in terms of cases. You’re free to come up with your own interpretation.

How do you explain Japan’s recent rise in cases? And England’s? Are their recent surges also due to their Thanksgiving celebrations?

Now that we’ve got this settled, can you please explain to me how, if masks and lockdowns work so well, the situation in California is getting so dire? I’d love to hear that.

Also, you should be more consistent in how you comment on quotes. Either above or below. Hence my confusion on what the absurd claim was. Please feel free to talk about the UF paper and the Danish mask study. I’d love to hear you explain those away.

 

[SlickAg]

It boggles the mind

Again, if masks and lockdowns work so well, please explain why California is doing so poorly. Also, did State College and/or Penn State also not do a good job of wearing masks? No other way to account for the rise in cases, right?

 

[SlickAg]

The absurd claim is all yours, that there wasn't a post-Thanksgiving surge.

Sounds like State College had a surge in cases in October. What holiday caused their surge?

Also, doctors and nurses HAVE been wearing masks for years...in surgical settings so their patients avoid infection. When’s the last time (pre-covid) you went for a flight physical or routine appointment and the nurses and doctors wore a surgical mask while taking your vitals and giving you an exam? Did doctors and nurses wear them to the grocery store? Or to the gym? Or at restaurants? Didn’t think so...

 

[Treetop Flyer]

It has gotten bad.

We ended up teaching most classes via Zoom, closed off all buildings, mandated randomized testing for all university students and employees in response to the growth in cases in October. Sent the students home at Thanksgiving, and now they aren't coming back for in person classes until mid-February due to the pandemic.

The local hospital was "full" at 41 COVID patients some time ago, but has been running in the mid-50s for patients since, sending excess to other hospitals. People that would otherwise be admitted are told to go home and monitor their Oxygen level, come back when it gets worse. My neighbor is a doctor at the hospital, so I get the intel. She got vaccinated last week, first shot, yay for her.

Good friend passed from COVID. Family had to settle for a Zoom session over an iPad as their last interaction with him.

It boggles the mind

It boggles the mind that a supposed bastion of learning and science would still be sending students home given what we have known about the virus for a long time.

 

[SlickAg]

It boggles the mind that a supposed bastion of learning and science would still be sending students home given what we have known about the virus for a long time.

The apple must not fall far from the tree.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

It has gotten bad.

We ended up teaching most classes via Zoom, closed off all buildings, mandated randomized testing for all university students and employees in response to the growth in cases in October. Sent the students home at Thanksgiving, and now they aren't coming back for in person classes until mid-February due to the pandemic.

The local hospital was "full" at 41 COVID patients some time ago, but has been running in the mid-50s for patients since, sending excess to other hospitals. People that would otherwise be admitted are told to go home and monitor their Oxygen level, come back when it gets worse. My neighbor is a doctor at the hospital, so I get the intel. She got vaccinated last week, first shot, yay for her.

Good friend passed from COVID. Family had to settle for a Zoom session over an iPad as their last interaction with him.

It boggles the mind

If hospitals would hire (even temporarily) more doctors and nurses they could handle more patients, but it comes down to cost, it is cheaper to send people home to watch their own oxygen levels than have them in a hospital.

 

[SlickAg]

If hospitals would hire (even temporarily) more doctors and nurses they could handle more patients, but it comes down to cost, it is cheaper to send people home to watch their own oxygen levels than have them in a hospital.

I think there’s more to it than just that. 1 in 7 workers has left the work force to care for school-aged children. Medical personnel have kids too, so if they can’t work due to schools being closed...

Also, in LA at least, seems to me as though the covid struggle is still a battle of the haves and the have nots - sounds like those who can work from home and/or telecommute are doing better than those who make less money, and are very likely unable to telework. Again, second and third order effects of lockdowns.

“As a result, the burden of the surge is much heavier at that hospital than those in wealthier areas of Los Angeles. According to recent statistics, 66 percent of the hospital’s capacity was taken up by Covid-19 patients — making it, in effect, the epicenter of the epicenter. Across town, on the whiter and richer West Side, 11 percent of Ronald Reagan U.C.L.A. Medical Center’s bed capacity was filled with coronavirus patients...

“What we see is a significant difference between patients who have commercial insurance versus Medicaid,” said Dr. Elaine Batchlor, the hospital’s chief executive. “Those with commercial insurance get out faster.” She added: “We’ve had a lot of talk about systemic racism and social justice and everybody says they want to do something about it, but our health care system is a huge reflection of separate and unequal. And the Covid pandemic is highlighting the same patterns.””

Southern California’s Hospitals Are Overwhelmed, and It May Get Worse (Published 2020)

Each day in California brings a mind-numbing new accounting of the tragedy underway. This week, the state became the first to reach two million virus cases.

www.nytimes.com

 

[taxi1]

Sounds like State College had a surge in cases in October. What holiday caused their surge?

Weekends. Students being students. I'd drive home on Friday past off-campus houses, and the beer pong in the driveway would be going. I'd have probably done the same back in the day.

Again, if masks and lockdowns work so well...

Where I work a significant portion have to come in, due to sensitive or classified work. We've had a mask mandate and social distancing requirements from mid-March, and required randomized testing through the Fall, along with mandatory testing for people who had to travel for work. We lock out anyone who needs to quarantine. We've adjusted the HVAC in the buildings to increase turnover and have policies on windows to increase outflow. We've had a lot of people come up positive this Fall. Contact tracing shows we've not had a single case of at-work transmission. What we do works. Beats me about California.

It boggles the mind that a supposed bastion of learning and science would still be sending students home given what we have known about the virus for a long time.

All students were requested to take a test prior to departing (free) and were offered free dorm space for quarantining if they came up positive (quite a few did). This included students that lived in town, not just on campus proper.

You're right, it was/is a hot topic of discussion in town.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

“What we see is a significant difference between patients who have commercial insurance versus Medicaid,” said Dr. Elaine Batchlor, the hospital’s chief executive. “Those with commercial insurance get out faster.” She added: “We’ve had a lot of talk about systemic racism and social justice and everybody says they want to do something about it, but our health care system is a huge reflection of separate and unequal. And the Covid pandemic is highlighting the same patterns.””

Southern California’s Hospitals Are Overwhelmed, and It May Get Worse (Published 2020)

Each day in California brings a mind-numbing new accounting of the tragedy underway. This week, the state became the first to reach two million virus cases.

www.nytimes.com

maybe another factor could be that those on medicaid could have more health issues due to age, lifestyle, etc.. than those with commercial insurance, it would be interesting to break down those numbers.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Weekends. Students being students. I'd drive home on Friday past off-campus houses, and the beer pong in the driveway would be going. I'd have probably done the same back in the day.

Where I work a significant portion have to come in, due to sensitive or classified work. We've had a mask mandate and social distancing requirements from mid-March, and required randomized testing through the Fall, along with mandatory testing for people who had to travel for work. We lock out anyone who needs to quarantine. We've adjusted the HVAC in the buildings to increase turnover and have policies on windows to increase outflow. We've had a lot of people come up positive this Fall. Contact tracing shows we've not had a single case of at-work transmission. What we do works. Beats me about California.

All students were requested to take a test prior to departing (free) and were offered free dorm space for quarantining if they came up positive (quite a few did). This included students that lived in town, not just on campus proper.

You're right, it was/is a hot topic of discussion in town.

College students face virtually no risk from the virus unless they have major complicating health problems. So sending them home accomplishes what exactly? It’s another feel-good “at least we did something” action, and it’s inexcusable given the mountain of data we have.