COVID-19

[Spekkio]

To me, it seems like this is where the COVID vaccine comes into play. It doesn't solve the short-term issue, but it's the long game. I've been a bit startled to find reasonable, intelligent people in the health care industry make comments about the vaccine not being helpful when it seems (to me) they're not understanding the long game of just getting everyone (whom it may apply to) past the severe symptoms and it just becoming, at worst, something that feels like the common cold.

I've become very frustrated with how the ICU beds situation has continued to be reported. I don't discount COVID-19, as I'm sure it would absolutely kill my mom, and does seem to hit some with no known co-morbidities harder than others. But this whole "the ICUs are at capacity!" message has been frustrating because the details aren't being defined in reporting. The CDC's own tracking is showing that, yes, ICU use specifically for COVID has increased in December for several states, including CA, but the actual numbers of ICU COVID patients is only about 30% (on the high side for states like CA). Averaging a typical ICU bed count of ~20 (which is probably generous), that's not that many patients/unit hospital, even if they're setting up COVID patients in the SICU or CVICU, which are typically different animals.

This site posts hospital beds in use. Of note, we're currently at about 118,000 people hospitalized with a capacity nation wide of about 250,000. Of course that nationwide number isn't very valuable since we're not going to fly a COVID patient from Wisconsin to Texas to get treatment. Additionally, hospitalized doesn't necessarily mean that the patient is in the ICU.

Random stuff about CA...

I'm not sure what you're expecting CA to do (or not do) after shotgunning a whole bunch of data. You seem to just want to stamp your feet about inconsistencies between different sources when the research is still in its infancy. New York and much of New England was flat after Gov Cuomo locked all the elderly patients in nursing homes to kill off their friends (I'm being hyperbolic, but only a little) from Jun 1 through Nov 1 and it looked like the PFR was going to settle in at 0.10-0.15%. Now with the recent surge all those states are also seeing a small but steady increase in fatalities, and it looks like the final number may be as high as 0.20%, which would equate to over 600,000 people killed nation wide.

California's PFR is 0.06%, so they're not even half way through the bulk of the disease. The reason the disease is spreading is that people think that COVID has been going on so long that they don't need to follow the guidelines anymore. The vast majority of people will do it in public because they want to avoid conflict, but at their home when no one else is watching is another story.

 

[taxi1]

Can we define "masks" when we say "masks work" . I don't see anyone wearing the N95s, which I agree work when they are fitted (they should be fitted to the wearer). I usually see cloth, neck gaiters/buffs and cheapo surgical masks.

They can be divided into filters and deflectors. The N95s filter the virus out, when fitted. The cloth ones keep the viral plumes closer to you, acting as an enhancement to social distancing. They're not magic, its just engineering. They direct it onto your eyeglasses.

I just saw your post about surgical masks, but please remember that the majority of people aren’t wearing a medical-grade mask. In fact, I’d still love to have an answer about when they are routinely worn by medical professionals in a non-surgical or non-sterile setting.

I had to see the doc the other day for the annual checkup. Contrary to the previous 30 years when no one wore a mask, everyone wore a mask. Including the doctors and nurses.

Same for the dentist visit.

Here's a nice shot of the Cowboys team physician and medical staff staring at Dak Prescott's ankle.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Here's what I have found fascinating. We've had known (after the fact) contagious workers at work near other workers, and yet have had zero transmission at work.

They are asked about precautions taken both at work and off work, as a part of contact tracing by the health folks.

The reason my work was moved to work from home was a positive coworker, this was back in March, turns out myself and dozens of others were in close proximity to this person on a daily basis and no one else ended up getting sick. This was right before everyone was told to wear mask and such.

How did none of us get it and then you have someone who is essentially a hermit that has minimal contact with anyone and they end up getting it, who knows? Maybe it was just dumb luck.

Edit: right before we were told to not come into the office I saw this coworker leaving in a hurry with his bag and on his phone, I thought to myself "someone is in a hurry to get home".

 

[SlickAg]

I had to see the doc the other day for the annual checkup. Contrary to the previous 30 years when no one wore a mask, everyone wore a mask. Including the doctors and nurses.

Same for the dentist visit.

Here's a nice shot of the Cowboys team physician and medical staff staring at Dak Prescott's ankle.

My point is that if surgical masks are SO effective at stopping respiratory viruses how come medical personnel HAVE NOT been wearing them for the previous 30 years. They’ve been surrounded by them for years and it’s such a small thing for them to do if it saves just one life, right?

As for mask efficacy, the dude in the back of the photo has blown it. His mask isn’t covering his nose. And the patient is wearing a mask, albeit the wrong kind. Everyone in the picture has had to have tested negative multiple times in order to even walk onto the field, so it’s mainly an exercise in theater.

 

[SlickAg]

words

I’d say my main point is that I’d like to see if the pro-lockdown and pro-mask crowd from earlier this year is still singing the same tune since “15 days to flatten the curve” has turned into almost 300.

Stay tuned for the full report, but early data gathering seems to indicate “yes”.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

They can be divided into filters and deflectors. The N95s filter the virus out, when fitted. The cloth ones keep the viral plumes closer to you, acting as an enhancement to social distancing. They're not magic, its just engineering. They direct it onto your eyeglasses.
I had to see the doc the other day for the annual checkup. Contrary to the previous 30 years when no one wore a mask, everyone wore a mask. Including the doctors and nurses.

Same for the dentist visit.

Here's a nice shot of the Cowboys team physician and medical staff staring at Dak Prescott's ankle.

Those masks are preventing COVID about as much as the pink gloves and towels cure breast cancer.

 

[SlickAg]

Speaking of California...here’s some snippets from today’s LA Times. Glad to see that they’re beginning to realize that there’s more to this than mask mandates and lockdowns.

“The dire situation has prompted confusion and dismay among Angelenos, many of whom are wondering whether their sacrifices over the past nine months have been for naught. L.A. County was an early adopter of masks, quickly instituted stay-at-home orders in March and November and, until this point, has kept its rate of coronavirus cases and COVID-19 deaths relatively low.“

“Experts also pin L.A.’s problems on rules that can appear inconsistent or arbitrary, as well as a confusing patchwork of policies across Southern California.”

“The coronavirus is thought to thrive in colder, drier weather, making transmission more likely during this time of the year. Short days in the winter may also push people to spend more time indoors, where the virus can easily spread.

Until November, California had avoided the huge outbreaks that had erupted elsewhere in the nation, so once the virus started circulating more, a higher proportion of the state’s population may have been susceptible, experts say. Additionally, having not seen as much early devastation firsthand, Californians may have had a false sense of confidence that the pandemic was manageable.”

L.A. was uniquely vulnerable to this COVID catastrophe. Here is what went wrong

L.A. was far more vulnerable to an extreme crisis from the coronavirus than nearly anywhere else in the nation.

www.latimes.com

P.S. @Spekkio THIS is why California matters in terms of public health policy going forward. First state to institute widespread lockdowns and mask mandates, and now they’re being described as “the next New York”. Citizens are rightfully confused and dismayed that their nine months of sacrifice will turn out to not have mattered in the grand scheme of things. Obviously the research hasn’t caught up yet and we have more to learn. But this isn’t February or March anymore. Fog of war is no longer a valid excuse. Americans deserve a coherent and clear plan moving forward that has a reasonable chance of working going forward. Shutting businesses down and telling everyone to stay home and wear a mask was never a viable strategy, and the proof is in the pudding. Instead, the “experts” caved into the fear that the media was stoking and they worked with politicians who were trying to appease their constituents in an election year.

 

[Spekkio]

I’d say my main point is that I’d like to see if the pro-lockdown and pro-mask crowd from earlier this year is still singing the same tune since “15 days to flatten the curve” has turned into almost 300.

Anyone who thought that the pandemic was going to be over in 15 days is an idiot. I don't know why you're so obsessed with that subset of the population.

Politicians were talking in short terms just to get public buy-in. No one would have successfully implemented any COVID-19 controls by saying "well, I'm gonna have to go ahead and ask you to shut down until April of 2022."

 

[taxi1]

Americans deserve a coherent and clear plan moving forward that has a reasonable chance of working going forward.

We should look at the winners (Australia, Taiwan, Scandinavian countries minus Sweden, etc.) and see what they've done. Then follow their example.

Instead, we're up there with the worst on the planet.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[SlickAg]

Anyone who thought that the pandemic was going to be over in 15 days is an idiot. I don't know why you're so obsessed with that subset of the population.

Politicians were talking in short terms just to get public buy-in. No one would have successfully implemented any COVID-19 controls by saying "well, I'm gonna have to go ahead and ask you to shut down until April of 2022."

Well of course we were being lied to. You and I both know that. I’m obsessed with the people on this website that don’t seem to understand that and what part of the puzzle they seem to be missing.

I’m also fascinated by all the people on active duty who spent several months on here arguing that a small sacrifice now isn’t a big deal and things will be fine soon enough etc etc. I’d like to hear their thoughts now that the landscape has clearly shifted dramatically and their thoughts on maybe being allowed to step off the ship onto a pier maybe a couple of times during a 9 month plus deployment.

 

[SlickAg]

We should look at the winners (Australia, Taiwan, Scandinavian countries minus Sweden, etc.) and see what they've done. Then follow their example.

Instead, we're up there with the worst on the planet.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Why do we need to look there? I thought you were a proponent of masking and lockdowns? I also recall that you weren’t super pumped about school reopening this fall.

 

[BigRed389]

We should look at the winners (Australia, Taiwan, Scandinavian countries minus Sweden, etc.) and see what they've done. Then follow their example.

Instead, we're up there with the worst on the planet.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

I was living in Australia until about a few weeks ago.

Won’t deny they played their cards well, but they also started with a winning hand (island nation, COVID arrived after it had hit everywhere else, personal/business travel almost entirely by air, less internal political division).

 

[ABMD]

They can be divided into filters and deflectors. The N95s filter the virus out, when fitted. The cloth ones keep the viral plumes closer to you, acting as an enhancement to social distancing. They're not magic, its just engineering. They direct it onto your eyeglasses.
I had to see the doc the other day for the annual checkup. Contrary to the previous 30 years when no one wore a mask, everyone wore a mask. Including the doctors and nurses.

When I posted 2 weeks ago it wasn't to start another S-storm, but to really hear peoples opinions. Clearly, there are plenty of strong opinions on this site.

Well, I think the cloth masks, and anything other than an N95 is just a crutch to make people believe they are protecting themselves and others. I thought the whole issue with the virus was that the particles are small enough to fit through any mask/barrier other than the N95. @taxi1 if I'm reading what you said correctly, you're saying masks work for the sick "cloth ones keep the viral plumes closer to you...they direct it onto your eyeglasses". I think the crap face covering wouldn't work either way, inward or outward.

 

[Spekkio]

We should look at the winners (Australia, Taiwan, Scandinavian countries minus Sweden, etc.) and see what they've done. Then follow their example.

They haven't done anything remarkable; the virus just hasn't run its course in those nations.

 

[taxi1]

Why do we need to look there? I thought you were a proponent of masking and lockdowns? I also recall that you weren’t super pumped about school reopening this fall.

Australia (for example) used masking and lockdowns. They shut down until it was miniscule, and now people are out and about maskless and shopping and getting on with their lives. Living freely. If it pops up, they contract trace the shit out of it (easy to do since it is ones and twos) and kill it before it grows.

It's the difference between going all-in and half-assing it. This is a winner's plot.

Won’t deny they played their cards well, but they also started with a winning hand

Once they had internal community spread, they were on an even playing field with the rest of us.

They haven't done anything remarkable; the virus just hasn't run its course in those nations.

And now we have a vaccine.

So as long as they keep it down until folks get the shot, it won't get to run its course.