COVID-19

[Flash]

Wait a minute...so you’re saying the WaPo isn’t omniscient??

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/post-infection-coronavirus-immunity-usually-robust-after-8-months-study-shows/2021/01/07/d7d369a6-511a-11eb-b96e-0e54447b23a1_story.html%3foutputType=amp

No more than you are, number of posts notwithstanding.

Immunity or not we are nowhere near any sort of herd immunity as the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise to new heights by the day.

 

[Jim123]

Immunity or not we are nowhere near any sort of herd immunity as the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise to new heights by the day.

A lot of areas in the country are on the steep part (or the steepening part, hopefully it doesn't get any steeper than this) of the gompertz curve.

(Gompertz is an S-shaped curve that was too complicated to explain back in the spring and so the media went with "exponential" instead, a word which is more familiar to most people and sounds more impressive anyway... never mind that another key concept, that "flatten the curve" doesn't mean fewer total infections, was lost on 90% of the population- many of whom were probably busy eating paste during high school math and science classes instead of paying attention.)

I do agree with the general theory that @Treetop Flyer mentioned, that there are a lot of cases out there of people who were infected and suffered only mildly or didn't know it at all. As to what that number is compared to the known cases, I think that's anybody's guess because I haven't seen any studies on random sampling of the population. COVID tests for anyone who wants one are easy to get in some places and still a big hassle in others (the only surefire way I know is to donate blood). I suspect the number of people who had it and got better is significant although I'm not willing to bet it's as high as 4~5 to 1. It'll be interesting to revisit this point a few years from now.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

A lot of areas in the country are on the steep part (or the steepening part, hopefully it doesn't get any steeper than this) of the gompertz curve.

(Gompertz is an S-shaped curve that was too complicated to explain back in the spring and so the media went with "exponential" instead, a word which is more familiar to most people and sounds more impressive anyway... never mind that another key concept, that "flatten the curve" doesn't mean fewer total infections, was lost on 90% of the population- many of whom were probably busy eating paste during high school math and science classes instead of paying attention.)

I do agree with the general theory that @Treetop Flyer mentioned, that there are a lot of cases out there of people who were infected and suffered only mildly or didn't know it at all. As to what that number is compared to the known cases, I think that's anybody's guess because I haven't seen any studies on random sampling of the population. COVID tests for anyone who wants one are easy to get in some places and still a big hassle in others (the only surefire way I know is to donate blood). I suspect the number of people who had it and got better is significant although I'm not willing to bet it's as high as 4~5 to 1. It'll be interesting to revisit this point a few years from now.

Just to clarify, I’m basing the 4 or 5 to 1 ratio of infections to reported cases purely off of the CDC’s estimate of 91 million cases as of Nov 30th compared to the current 22.5 million reported cases.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

I don't think we can make statements like that with any certainty with a virus that is only months and not years old. I don't think anyone can say how much or how long immunity lasts for folks or whether or not folks can be reinfected, especially given that variants are already appearing around the globe. Not only that, without much more widespread and better testing I don't think we can say with much confidence how many folks have been exposed or infected and to what degree they have been.

No, there’s no way to know exactly how long immunity lasts. However there is a pretty strong consensus both that there is lasting immunity and that reinfections are unlikely to as severe. That’s not me coming up with that.

 

[SlickAg]

No more than you are, number of posts notwithstanding.

Immunity or not we are nowhere near any sort of herd immunity as the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise to new heights by the day.

I love it. The guy with 10,000+ posts admonishes the guy with 1,400.

How do you otherwise explain the highly localized geographic nature of the case count? Masks and lockdowns are super effective...so why are things so bad in California? Maybe, just maybe, it’s because their population was never really exposed to it before, and places like NYC have reached some sort of herd immunity threshold.

I’ve said it before, my primary interest on this thread is mainly twofold: 1) seeing how many coronabros from this spring and summer still think lockdowns and masks are effective given that we’ve now had TEN months of them, and 2) seeing how political beliefs generally relate to COVID beliefs. Especially when they have “safe” jobs for all intents and purposes immune to any sort of economic-related downsizing.

Those that can, do. Those that can’t, teach (or work for the government in some civilian capacity).

 

[exNavyOffRec]

A lot of areas in the country are on the steep part (or the steepening part, hopefully it doesn't get any steeper than this) of the gompertz curve.

(Gompertz is an S-shaped curve that was too complicated to explain back in the spring and so the media went with "exponential" instead, a word which is more familiar to most people and sounds more impressive anyway... never mind that another key concept, that "flatten the curve" doesn't mean fewer total infections, was lost on 90% of the population- many of whom were probably busy eating paste during high school math and science classes instead of paying attention.)

I do agree with the general theory that @Treetop Flyer mentioned, that there are a lot of cases out there of people who were infected and suffered only mildly or didn't know it at all. As to what that number is compared to the known cases, I think that's anybody's guess because I haven't seen any studies on random sampling of the population. COVID tests for anyone who wants one are easy to get in some places and still a big hassle in others (the only surefire way I know is to donate blood). I suspect the number of people who had it and got better is significant although I'm not willing to bet it's as high as 4~5 to 1. It'll be interesting to revisit this point a few years from now.

Kroger for 25.00 has the antibody test, they said it was tested in a few areas and supposedly is somewhat accurate, the results come back in like 15 minutes.

 

[taxi1]

still think lockdowns and masks are effective given that we’ve now had TEN months of them

Why do you think we’re amongst the planet’s biggest losers in COVID response?

 

[sevenhelmet]

Why do you think we’re amongst the planet’s biggest losers in COVID response?

That’s an excellent question. Without politicizing things, I notice the most developed Western nations seem to be struggling the most, while nations I would have expected to struggle (India comes to mind) seem to be having such a relatively easy time. Cultural differences? Differences in testing? Politics (ugh)? Something else entirely?

The only thing I’m sure of is I don’t know the answer. I’m sure people here have some strong hypotheses/opinions on the matter.

 

[Hair Warrior]

That’s an excellent question. Without politicizing things, I notice the most developed Western nations seem to be struggling the most, while nations I would have expected to struggle (India comes to mind) seem to be having such a relatively easy time. Cultural differences? Differences in testing? Politics (ugh)? Something else entirely?

The only thing I’m sure of is I don’t know the answer. I’m sure people here have some strong hypotheses/opinions on the matter.

So - India. The hypothesis is that zinc plus an ionophore has made them incredibly resilient, biologically and not behaviorally, to SARS-COV2. Zinc is found in red meat (rare in Indian food) and to a lesser extent legumes (common in Indian food).

Many of the individuals who have been hit hardest by SARS-COV2 are coincidentally zinc-deficient, on average, relative to the overall population. But zinc alone doesn’t do it; you also need an ionophore to get the zinc across the cellular barrier. Turmeric is an ionophore - and is common in Indian food. There are some prescription ionophores, too.

More research (peer reviewed, double blind) is necessary.

 

[taxi1]

The ones that had a brush with other pandemics (SARS, MERS) have done the best. They learned, and were prepared.

Their lessons were there for the taking.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

So - India. The hypothesis is that zinc plus an ionophore has made them incredibly resilient, biologically and not behaviorally, to SARS-COV2. Zinc is found in red meat (rare in Indian food) and to a lesser extent legumes (common in Indian food).

Many of the individuals who have been hit hardest by SARS-COV2 are coincidentally zinc-deficient, on average, relative to the overall population. But zinc alone doesn’t do it; you also need an ionophore to get the zinc across the cellular barrier. Turmeric is an ionophore - and is common in Indian food. There are some prescription ionophores, too.

More research (peer reviewed, double blind) is necessary.

I’m not saying that particular hypothesis is wrong, but a lot of statistics from developing countries are skewed by less testing and reporting and the basic fact that they have much younger populations than western countries. That alone helps a lot with this one.

 

[sevenhelmet]

The ones that had a brush with other pandemics (SARS, MERS) have done the best. They learned, and were prepared.

Their lessons were there for the taking.

Here's hoping we learn from this one. I'd like to say I'm optimistic about that, but...

 

[scoolbubba]

Why do you think we’re amongst the planet’s biggest losers in COVID response?

We have an older, generally unhealthy population predisposed to be more at risk to novel health issues.


Nations with a younger population fare better. Nations with a lower average BMI fare better. Nations that eat less processed foods fare better.

Some nations don't meet all of these (Japan) but they meet some of these generalizations. It's not rocket surgery to understand the healthier a population is in their day to day life, the better they'll do when a new bug pops up.

Instead of telling people to lose weight and go for walks outside, we told them to lock the doors and eat delivery while they waited for a vaccine.

 

[sevenhelmet]

So - India. The hypothesis is that zinc plus an ionophore has made them incredibly resilient, biologically and not behaviorally, to SARS-COV2. Zinc is found in red meat (rare in Indian food) and to a lesser extent legumes (common in Indian food).

Many of the individuals who have been hit hardest by SARS-COV2 are coincidentally zinc-deficient, on average, relative to the overall population. But zinc alone doesn’t do it; you also need an ionophore to get the zinc across the cellular barrier. Turmeric is an ionophore - and is common in Indian food. There are some prescription ionophores, too.

More research (peer reviewed, double blind) is necessary.

That's interesting, I hadn't read that before. It's certainly a credible hypothesis; zinc supplements (e.g. ZICAM) have been used to help fight colds for a long time.

I personally think it's a bit of everything, diet, overall age and health of the population, and how data are collected. It's going to be interesting to digest all of this in hindsight.

 

[Jim123]

Zinc is found in red meat and to a lesser extent legumes.

One more thing I can blame on the public school system- since they're the ones who virtually banned peanut butter from school lunches.

(Just kidding about the blame part but not kidding about the peanut butter thing... dumb helicopter parent generation.)