Our intel community would know.
Maybe...
I'm not convinced they had a great handle on what was going on over there just a month ago, before everything unraveled in the west.
I see anecdotes popping out in the news here and there- indirect, weird stuff like the number of urns getting bought over there and cell phone activity. I'm taking it all with a grain of salt because I'm sure some of it is simply incorrect for some reason- somebody got the facts wrong, the facts are evolving too quickly, or somebody is deliberately planting misleading information (either simple hoaxes for mischief or complex misinformation campaigns). I don't mean that in a conspiracy nut sense either, I just think there are a lot of variables. But eventually you get to where there is enough evidence to support one conclusion or another.
And back to our intel communities, they have to sift through a lot of noise and figure out what might be true and what is probably not true.