COVID-19

[taxi1]

That's because it's more infectious than the flu, not more severe. An important distinction.

Not really.

Prob(you die from it) = Prob(you get it) x Prob(it kills you if you get it)

Increase either of these and the first probability goes up.

If the vaccine solves this thing, as you claim, then why are we now 64% fully vaccinated (including much higher percentages among the actual at risk population) and still having a death rate as bad as last winter, as you also pointed out?

New variants.

We would have been royally ska-rewed if the Delta variant had been the one that hit back in January 2020, instead of waiting until Summer 21. It would have been horrific. Our health system would have likely collapsed. See India for case study.

The long road to India’s unparalleled pandemic catastrophe

India’s health system was broken. Then the delta surge arrived.

www.vox.com

 

[Mirage]

Not really.

Prob(you die from it) = Prob(you get it) x Prob(it kills you if you get it)

Increase either of these and the first probability goes up.

New variants.

We would have been royally ska-rewed if the Delta variant had been the one that hit back in January 2020, instead of waiting until Summer 21. It would have been horrific. Our health system would have likely collapsed. See India for case study.

The long road to India’s unparalleled pandemic catastrophe

India’s health system was broken. Then the delta surge arrived.

www.vox.com

Yes, but variants are a reality, and they likely will be for the rest of human existence, so your analysis is faulty if you don't account for them. So, accounting for the fact that variants exist, how do the current vaccines "solve this thing"?

 

[sevenhelmet]

I'm still wondering why we haven't seen- or even heard about the pending rollout of- an update to the vaccine. We're still vaccinating against the original (Alpha?) variant. Wasn't this supposed to be a technology that could be rapidly updated? It's been over a year now...

Nobody seems to have an answer.

 

[ea6bflyr]

I'm still wondering why we haven't seen- or even heard about the pending rollout of- an update to the vaccine. We're still vaccinating against the original (Alpha?) variant. Wasn't this supposed to be a technology that could be rapidly updated? It's been over a year now...

Nobody seems to have an answer.

This is one of the reasons my wife and I haven’t received the booster.

 

[taxi1]

Yes, but variants are a reality, and they likely will be for the rest of human existence, so your analysis is faulty if you don't account for them. So, accounting for the fact that variants exist, how do the current vaccines "solve this thing"?

What would you do if you were put in charge?

Remember, we've already gone from zero to vaccine with the original variant.

I'm still wondering why we haven't seen- or even heard about the pending rollout of- an update to the vaccine. We're still vaccinating against the original (Alpha?) variant. Wasn't this supposed to be a technology that could be rapidly updated? It's been over a year now...

Nobody seems to have an answer.

It's an open question on the specifics. right now the current vaccines still work. Yes, at reduced effectiveness, but better than what we originally hoped for the original vaccine against the original variant. Ratcheting expectations...

How to redesign COVID vaccines so they protect against variants

Lineages that can evade immunity are spurring vaccine makers to explore ways to redesign their shots.

www.nature.com

 

[taxi1]

Yes, but variants are a reality, and they likely will be for the rest of human existence, so your analysis is faulty if you don't account for them. So, accounting for the fact that variants exist, how do the current vaccines "solve this thing"?

Question for you: so lets say a new variant pops up that is as contagious as Delta or Omicron, escapes immunity, and is as deadly as the original SARS COV (9% die on average). It's not impossible it will happen.

What would be the policy you'd promote?

 

[sevenhelmet]

This is one of the reasons my wife and I haven’t received the booster.

I don't disagree with that thought. I was all set to get the booster myself, and then I got COVID. I don't see the point of getting the booster now. The "CDC recommends" and "it's still effective" arguments only go so far.

It's an open question on the specifics. right now the current vaccines still work. Yes, at reduced effectiveness, but better than what we originally hoped for the original vaccine against the original variant. Ratcheting expectations...

How to redesign COVID vaccines so they protect against variants

Lineages that can evade immunity are spurring vaccine makers to explore ways to redesign their shots.

www.nature.com

We were told there would be regular updates. There have not been. That's not ratcheting expectations, that an overpromise and underdelivery. Saying "It works well enough" just sounds like a poor excuse, particularly when there has no serious talk of an updated shot. When one comes out, I'll consider getting boosted. For now, I'm getting on with my life while (apparently) riding a high of natural antibodies.

 

[taxi1]

We were told there would be regular updates.

I've never seen that. Link?

 

[Spekkio]

So you think the spike wouldn't be bigger if everyone went to restaurants with no NPIs and talked loudly with each other?

That's essentially what is happening when you walk in with a mask on for 5 minutes then take it off for the 30-60 minutes you sit down at a table in a packed joint. The mask is just feel good theater at that point.

It's an open question on the specifics. right now the current vaccines still work. Yes, at reduced effectiveness, but better than what we originally hoped for the original vaccine against the original variant. Ratcheting expectations...

The original vaccine was advertised to have a 95%+ efficacy and offer long-term immunity.

 

[taxi1]

The original vaccine was advertised to have a 95%+ efficacy and offer long-term immunity.

From back in September 2020.

A COVID-19 Vaccine May Be Only 50% Effective. Is That Good Enough?

Scientists are racing to develop a vaccine that proves "safe and effective." It may not prevent infection in everyone who gets it, but it still could eventually stop the pandemic. Here's how.

www.npr.org

“I'd like it to be 75% or more," Fauci said, but he acknowledged that may not be realistic.

What we got is still better against omicron than we hoped for against the original.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I've never seen that. Link?

Having trouble finding one from back then (early '21 is my recollection)- my post-work Google fu evidently isn't up to the challenge. I keep getting nothing but the most recent information- darn you, Google for staying current! However, I recall reading a claim in late 2020 / early 2021 that updated vaccines could be rolled out on a ~100 day timeline if/when an escape variant arose. But that's trusting my admittedly horrible memory. So, I'll shitcan my uncited claim if that makes you feel better. However, I'll also pose a more nuanced set of questions:

What is the threshold at which it will "be decided" that the current vaccine is no longer good enough? Is it ethical and appropriate to wait for that threshold before rolling out an updated version? Who does the deciding about what is "good enough"? And finally, why aren't updated versions of the vaccine being talked about more?

 

[robav8r]

Huh . . . . interesting.

 

[Spekkio]

From back in September 2020.

A COVID-19 Vaccine May Be Only 50% Effective. Is That Good Enough?

Scientists are racing to develop a vaccine that proves "safe and effective." It may not prevent infection in everyone who gets it, but it still could eventually stop the pandemic. Here's how.

www.npr.org

“I'd like it to be 75% or more," Fauci said, but he acknowledged that may not be realistic.

What we got is still better against omicron than we hoped for against the original.

That's not what the CDC said. If you posted that link in summer of 2021 on reddit, the mods would have banned you for misinformation.

 

[robav8r]

That's not what the CDC said. If you posted that link in summer of 2021 on reddit, the mods would have banned you for misinformation.

Misinformation has a scale Spekkio . . . .

 

[taxi1]

That's not what the CDC said.

Please show me a link where the CDC said the vaccine would be 94% effective in the summer of 20.

It's not even the CDCs job to evaluate vaccines while in development.

@robav8r , feel free to help with his googling.