COVID-19

[taxi1]

Back to where we are now, I think we should have started an updated vaccine 6 months ago.

Sad thing is, it looks like Omicron will have wrapped up its visit mostly in a next months or so. It became a thing in November, and will likely be past tense by May, six months later. Delta was kind of similar, but not as drastic.

We really need a process for going from variant to shot that is extremely short. We can design the vaccines in very short order. or the one Covid vaccine to rule them all. I know they are working on it.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Sad thing is, it looks like Omicron will have wrapped up its visit mostly in a next months or so. It became a thing in November, and will likely be past tense by May, six months later. Delta was kind of similar, but not as drastic.

We really need a process for going from variant to shot that is extremely short. We can design the vaccines in very short order. or the one Covid vaccine to rule them all. I know they are working on it.

Yup, I've read about that. Thing is, by the time it's ready, I have to wonder if this thing will be endemic and just a part of normal life. It's trending that way in a lot of places now.

 

[Mirage]

After more thought, since this is not a complete hypothetical...

- massive distribution of KN95 and N95 masks for people who want to wear them. They are good enough to protect people even if they are surrounded by non-masked, with some reasonable additional precautions
- massive testing, especially via air sampling and waste streams, so we know the "Pandemic Weather", where it is surging. This doesn't depend on individuals getting tested. But also that testing too. Testing should be too easy.
- If the vaccines remain reasonably effective, like the current ones against Omicron and Delta, then a campaign to get boosted up with a 4th shot. If not, then Warp Speed II needs to happen to get a new vax. This will take time because it requires new trials, 6 months or so.
- Public messaging better. Have signs on highways, public alerts, etc., so people can make their own risk decisions

The big problem is the health system. With a significant proportion of the population not using NPIs and boosters, the already weakened health system will be crushed. Curious for your ideas on that.

Yes, if we get a virus as contagious as Omicron with 9% fatality rate then the hospitals will be crushed. I outlined what I would do previously, and I think it would do as good as we could at minimizing the loss of life and impact on hospitals. But there's nothing anyone can do to stop the fact that hospitals would be crushed.

 

[Mos]

Public messaging better. Have signs on highways, public alerts, etc., so people can make their own risk decisions

I don't know how much more public messaging could be needed. I regularly hear radio advertisements and see ads on tv, YouTube, and billboards already about social distancing and encouraging people to get the vaccine. Maybe it's regional and northeast Florida just has this particular thing reasonably figured out.

 

[hscs]

Sad thing is, it looks like Omicron will have wrapped up its visit mostly in a next months or so. It became a thing in November, and will likely be past tense by May, six months later. Delta was kind of similar, but not as drastic.

We really need a process for going from variant to shot that is extremely short. We can design the vaccines in very short order. or the one Covid vaccine to rule them all. I know they are working on it.

i would offer that maybe we don’t need a process that rapidly reacts, to the point where we are giving people vaccinations ever couple of months. We already have a process and it is called the annual flu shot.

We don’t vaccinate people on every variant of other viruses, so why are we starting now? A process as you mentioned sounds similar (to me at least) to doctors who over-prescribed antibiotics and allowed superbugs to develop. At one one point, Drs told patients with a certain condition to take antibiotics before getting their teeth cleaned due to a minute risk of heart infection. They have since reweighed risks and stopped that silliness due to increased risk of patients not being able to fight off infection.

 

[Spekkio]

Yes, if we get a virus as contagious as Omicron with 9% fatality rate then the hospitals will be crushed. I outlined what I would do previously, and I think it would do as good as we could at minimizing the loss of life and impact on hospitals. But there's nothing anyone can do to stop the fact that hospitals would be crushed.

Why are we talking about a hypothetical disease with a mortality rate that is an order of magnitude higher than COVID-19 and 2 orders of magnitude more deadly than Omnicron?

The average age of someone who dies from COVID-19 is over 70.

Perhaps the CDC should have been conducting an active media campaign against tobacco - it kills an estimated 480,000 people per year. We probably should have banned smoking a long time ago via executive order, and publicly shame anyone who violates these orders or dies from tobacco use. We need more sob story anecdotes of 40 year old men who die from lung/throat cancer and leave behind a gaggle of children. If they started 2 years ago we could be talking about 900,000 fatalities, just like COVID!

 

[robav8r]

Why are we talking about a hypothetical disease with a mortality rate that is an order of magnitude higher than COVID-19 and 2 orders of magnitude more deadly than Omnicron?

The average age of someone who dies from COVID-19 is over 70.

Perhaps the CDC should have been conducting an active media campaign against tobacco - it kills an estimated 480,000 people per year. We probably should have banned smoking a long time ago via executive order, and publicly shame anyone who violates these orders or dies from tobacco use. We need more sob story anecdotes of 40 year old men who die from lung/throat cancer and leave behind a gaggle of children. If they started 2 years ago we could be talking about 900,000 fatalities, just like COVID!

Blasphemy Spekkio. !!!!!!

The only thing killing us all is COVID-19.

 

[taxi1]

Why are we talking about a hypothetical disease with a mortality rate that is an order of magnitude higher than COVID-19 and 2 orders of magnitude more deadly than Omnicron?

Delta variant was hypothetical until it came along and was more deadly and orders of magnitude more contagious than the original virus.

There’s a new variant of Omicron that is more contagious than OmicronV0 out there right now.

active media campaign against tobacco

How old (young) are you?

 

[sevenhelmet]

Delta variant was hypothetical until it came along and was more deadly and orders of magnitude more contagious than the original virus.

There’s a new variant of Omicron that is more contagious than OmicronV0 out there right now.


How old (young) are you?

I'm so scared. [/s]

There's always going to be a new variant. COVID-19 is endemic. Even Harvard professors are saying most of us should be getting back to life as normal at this point. It's time for healthy people to drop the BS and do something our government sucks at: have an exit strategy. It's pretty much already happened in my neck of the woods. Aside from a (very) few places where masks are still required by the property owner, and the logistical nightmare that our society's zero-risk/zero-defect culture has created, that is.

 

[taxi1]

I'm not saying run around scared, and Omicron is winding down anyway. Frankly, I've been living a 90% normal life through the whole pandemic.

I am saying it is stupid to be unprepared.

This is not the bad one, that one is in our future. I wonder if we've learned the right lessons to prepare us for when the *** really hits the fan. I don't think we have.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I'm not saying run around scared, and Omicron is winding down anyway. Frankly, I've been living a 90% normal life through the whole pandemic.

I am saying it is stupid to be unprepared.

This is not the bad one, that one is in our future. I wonder if we've learned the right lessons to prepare us for when the *** really hits the fan. I don't think we have.

I'm sort of with you. The playbook for this existed well before the test tube broke in Wuhan. "We" (that is, an undermanned administration with a super-high turnover rate) didn't follow it. Even if we ended up at the same fatality level, we could have lives that were a lot less disrupted, and I'd wager we could have both a lower overall number of fatalities, and less disrupted lives if leadership had come together with a cohesive and coherent message from the beginning. And an exit strategy. For the love of God.

 

[GroundPounder]

I'm not saying run around scared, and Omicron is winding down anyway. Frankly, I've been living a 90% normal life through the whole pandemic.

I am saying it is stupid to be unprepared.

This is not the bad one, that one is in our future. I wonder if we've learned the right lessons to prepare us for when the *** really hits the fan. I don't think we have.

When the bad one comes, this one will have sunk us. Whichever party is in power will have their 43% of the population that will go by what they say. The 43% that are of the other party will dig their heels in and " resist ".

 

[sevenhelmet]

When the bad one comes, this one will have sunk us. Whichever party is in power will have their 43% of the population that will go by what they say. The 43% that are of the other party will dig their heels in and " resist ".

Yup. Remember the old cow analogy for various forms of government? America post-2020 seems to be something like this:

You have two cows
Your neighbor complains to the government about the smell
The folks down the street don't believe cows exist, and harass you about the "conspiracy" regularly
The government prevents you from selling milk, and advertises a program to make all milk from almonds to prevent global warming
There are no almond trees this year due to a drought

 

[Randy Daytona]

I agree with the above, however the direction I was aiming was that globalization and extensive, complicated supply chains may break down into regional supply chains. For example, a substantial amount of industry could move out of China to locations such as Mexico, Vietnam, etc. Although there will be some positive effects for the US economy, there is the possibility it could be a much larger negative for the Chinese economy. In addition, individual nations may look again and consider subsidizing manufactured items critical to national security rather than rely on the economists who preach Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage.

Interesting articles from Bloomberg and CNN.

Putin and Xi Exposed the Great Illusion of Capitalism

Unless the U.S. and its allies mobilize to save it, the second great age of globalization is coming to a catastrophic close.

www.bloomberg.com

Putin and Xi Exposed the Great Illusion of Capitalism​

Unless the U.S. and its allies mobilize to save it, the second great age of globalization is coming to a catastrophic close.

BlackRock says Russia's war in Ukraine is the end of globalization

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has ended globalization as we know it, says the head of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.

www.cnn.com

BlackRock says Russia’s war in Ukraine is the end of globalization​

 

[taxi1]

A globalized economy, while efficient, is fragile. The shocks are always going to come. I guess the pendulum is swinging back?