Yup, Sweden is “leading the way” on relaxed restrictions. We will have some good data come May. They’re way ahead of Norway and Finland combined in deaths and rate.
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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Okay, what the fuck is going on here? These posts should not be normalized. This is saying lets just accept 1-2 million dead and move on... Economists who have any head on their shoulders know we need to suck it up and shut down extreme so we can minimize the amount of time that we shutdown in the long run.
Now that's just crazy talk!
So what’s different about Norway and Finland?
I hate to break it to you, but over 50 million people across the world die each year. In fact, the leading cause of death is life. So I think it’s been normalized. Airplanes have killed people. LOTS of them. Did you lose it and turn in your wings because of that?
The models don’t indicate 1-2 million dead anymore, or did I miss the latest update? They added somewhere around 1400, so the latest projection was 61,000+. For perspective, the 2018 flu season saw around 80,000 deaths.
We need to start formulating a plan, as a country, with how we move on from this. 10% of the nation’s work force is unemployed. That number is going up by the day. The major factor that got America out of the Great Depression was World War Two. A war with China wouldn’t help in the same way I don’t think.
Are Germany and Italy normalizing deaths for trying to move forward too, or is it just America (President Trump?) that’s crazy?
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Sweden didn't lock down, Norway largely did.
They did largely lock down along with Denmark, Sweden is the outlier in the region, that's why their infection and death rates are much lower.
They've also been updated with real world numbers that are driven by better behaviors. Because we've done what they asked us to do the numbers are looking better. Which is a good thing. Maybe spring warming up is helping too? No one seems to quite know that one. And we want updated models so leadership can use them to accurately and logically forecast when we can restart.
When the president is making these decisions it's not like he just has Fauci and Birx there discussing options. I'm sure he has the economists and other "functional leads/SMEs" providing him their perspectives as well. He then balances all the inputs and makes a decision. It's not like Fauci and Birx are making all the decisions.
We'll get to a point where we can restart. China has, it took them months. Parts of Europe are starting to come down the backside of the case loads, other parts like France and Spain, have yet to conclusively peak. Parts of the US, especially ones that aggressively shut down, may be peaking soon. Other parts havent peaked yet. But being able to predict where each location is in that case load is important for good decision making.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
Again, those models inexplicably assume the disease peaks in April-May then disappears entirely from the Earth on Aug 4th with no vaccination. This doesn't match the progression of our most recent pandemic with the swine flu.
Models should start with fitting reality (e.g. the swine flu), then it's a matter of manipulating coefficients and developing plans to attack the ones that have the highest sensitivity on the outcome.
If COVID-19 spreads twice as aggressively and is 10x deadlier than swine flu, then a projection of only 5x more total deaths is way off.
Under the current estimated rate of hospitalizations and deaths, we'll have to social distance for at least two years to keep the rate of spread within healthcare capacity. If the hospitalization or death rate is off by half, then that's a full year. If they're off by a factor of 10, we shouldn't have ever shut down the country in the first place.
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How many people died in planes in the last year?
Those projections are with mitigation and shutdowns in place. Flu season doesn't overwhelm hospitals.
Who’s demanding to stop all restrictions? Lockdowns and shutting down economies and commerce simply cannot go on forever. Our countries will cease to exist. There can be a balance of protecting the most vulnerable while taking measured steps to open back up the economy.
Serious question, do you and all the other Coronabros think it’s realistic to keep things the way they are for the next six months? Year? Most Americans can’t telework. They’ll lose their livelihoods. A huge percentage of Americans don’t even have $1,000 in a savings account. Are you going to give up half of your paycheck to cover them? Demand the Treasury starts printing more money to handle the trillions of dollars of government initiatives? What’s your answer, because you sure don’t seem to like the idea of getting the ball rolling again.
“Corona bro”...come on dude. Do I reply to your hyperbole? Your ad hominem is telling me you’re not worth my time.