COVID-19

[SlickAg]

“Corona bro”...come on dude. Do I reply to your hyperbole? Your ad hominem is telling me you’re not worth my time.

What hyperbole? The one where we voluntarily enter into another Great Depression? Tell us how your plan to keep everyone sheltered in place until 2021 is going to work out for our economy, national defense, international trade upon which we rely, etc. I’m all ears.

As far as corona bro: you should get Twitter. I’m really enjoying it. Helps pass the time not at work. Edit: and no, just because I posted the picture doesn’t mean I endorse them, agree with what they’re saying, blah blah blah. Feel free to post some fear porn in “retaliation”.

 

[MattWSU]

What hyperbole? The one where we voluntarily enter into another Great Depression? Tell us how your plan to keep everyone sheltered in place until 2021 is going to work out for our economy, national defense, international trade upon which we rely, etc. I’m all ears.

As far as corona bro: you should get Twitter. I’m really enjoying it. Helps pass the time not at work. Edit: and no, just because I posted the picture doesn’t mean I endorse them, agree with what they’re saying, blah blah blah. Feel free to post some fear porn in “retaliation”.

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My turn for ad hominem. I can’t save you from your own stupidity.

 

[SlickAg]

My turn for ad hominem. I can’t save you from your own stupidity.

Actually, I prefer my odds over yours right now. Enjoy that fresh high reg, devil.

 

[MattWSU]

Actually, I prefer my odds over yours right now. Enjoy that fresh high reg, devil.

View attachment 25095

??. This has been a bizarre exchange.

 

[SlickAg]

??. This has been a bizarre exchange.

When you said you couldn’t save me from my own stupidity, I assumed you meant that I was going to die or something from Covid-19 since I think the economy should be responsibly reopened. I posted that tweet because you are a Marine Cobra pilot from SoCal, and I thought you’d like to comment on the stupidity of your service mandating haircuts and grooming regulations. Since I’m on a paid leave from my job, I’m staying at home and being socially distant. Your service is making you go out into the MCX so you can get a fresh haircut. Hence, why I said I prefer my (survival) odds over yours.

For all of the modeling enthusiasts out there, here’s an interview from the IHME model guy. Who says we should reopen the economy soon. Looking at you @Sonog , @Pags, and @IKE . Tell everyone how wrong he is.

University of Washington coronavirus modeler: Data showing 'the worst is behind us'

Dr. Ali Mokdad, the physician behind the influential coronavirus pandemic model at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Fox News Friday that "the worst is behind us as a country."

www.foxnews.com

 

[MattWSU]

When you said you couldn’t save me from my own stupidity, I assumed you meant that I was going to die or something from Covid-19 since I think the economy should be responsibly reopened. I posted that tweet because you are a Marine Cobra pilot from SoCal, and I thought you’d like to comment on the stupidity of your service mandating haircuts and grooming regulations. Since I’m on a paid leave from my job, I’m staying at home and being socially distant. Your service is making you go out into the MCX so you can get a fresh haircut. Hence, why I said I prefer my (survival) odds over yours.

For all of the modeling enthusiasts out there, here’s an interview from the IHME model guy. Who says we should reopen the economy soon. Looking at you @Sonog , @Pags, and @IKE . Tell everyone how wrong he is.

University of Washington coronavirus modeler: Data showing 'the worst is behind us'

Dr. Ali Mokdad, the physician behind the influential coronavirus pandemic model at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Fox News Friday that "the worst is behind us as a country."

www.foxnews.com

I’m not where you think I am. Also I hope you’re as drunk as I am right now... posting this dribble.

 

[Pags]

When you said you couldn’t save me from my own stupidity, I assumed you meant that I was going to die or something from Covid-19 since I think the economy should be responsibly reopened. I posted that tweet because you are a Marine Cobra pilot from SoCal, and I thought you’d like to comment on the stupidity of your service mandating haircuts and grooming regulations. Since I’m on a paid leave from my job, I’m staying at home and being socially distant. Your service is making you go out into the MCX so you can get a fresh haircut. Hence, why I said I prefer my (survival) odds over yours.

For all of the modeling enthusiasts out there, here’s an interview from the IHME model guy. Who says we should reopen the economy soon. Looking at you @Sonog , @Pags, and @IKE . Tell everyone how wrong he is.

University of Washington coronavirus modeler: Data showing 'the worst is behind us'

Dr. Ali Mokdad, the physician behind the influential coronavirus pandemic model at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Fox News Friday that "the worst is behind us as a country."

www.foxnews.com

As Ive said before we will need to reopen. But that we should use models, current data, etc to guide when and how to make this decision. The modeling shows that many areas are peaking or will peak soon. But that's because of what we're doing. If we opened up tomorrow the results would change. States and localities need to use the models and actual data together as well as inputs from other SMEs to make data driven decisions. I also imagine those decisions will be weighed against political decisions such as reelection. My state is supposed to peak next week, but I think (based on models and state leadership actions to date) I'll be stuck at home for another 2-4wks as state leadership ensures that the real data is matching up with the model. I also think my kids won't go back to school this year.

 

[SlickAg]

I’m not where you think I am. Also I hope you’re as drunk as I am right now... posting this dribble.

The dribble about Marine Corps generals willing to gamble lives because they’re unwilling to see longer than normal hair? Your chain of command totally has your back.

 

[SlickAg]

As Ive said before we will need to reopen. But that we should use models, current data, etc to guide when and how to make this decision. The modeling shows that many areas are peaking or will peak soon. But that's because of what we're doing. If we opened up tomorrow the results would change. States and localities need to use the models and actual data together as well as inputs from other SMEs to make data driven decisions. I also imagine those decisions will be weighed against political decisions such as reelection. My state is supposed to peak next week, but I think (based on models and state leadership actions to date) I'll be stuck at home for another 2-4wks as state leadership ensures that the real data is matching up with the model. I also think my kids won't go back to school this year.

Totally agree. We’ll use models to help inform policy. These models may be wrong at first. That would be part of the assumed risk. But the alternative is worse. I think our nation’s leadership, unbound by Hippocratic oath, would agree

@Sonog , is @Pags also normalizing millions of deaths?

 

[wink]

Besides the differing tactics for opening the economy back up and lessening restrictions, how about shifting to a whole new strategy based on the accumulated data? It is clear who the high risk individuals are, and where the cluster outbreaks are and why. We know for a fact that age, diabetes, hypertension, obesity and of course respiratory problems are by far and away the most signifcant risk factors. To get much of America back to work isolate and restrict the high risk. They are easily identifiable and most are ready self isolating. Keep potential infection from them. Keep restrictions in epicenter outbreaks and restrict travel to and from those places. Yes, total cases will likely go up. But if those people have average health, nearly 90% of them will not require hospitization and overwhelm the system. And besides those that do get sick there will be untold number getting the virus but remain asymptomatic.

I keep hearing a vaccine is more than a year out. The economy cannot survive another year of this. Ugly and crude as it is, herd immunity is the best option now. Keep the most vulnerable safe ( many of whom are not employed ) and let the rest of America get back to work.

 

[Spekkio]

For all of the modeling enthusiasts out there, here’s an interview from the IHME model guy. Who says we should reopen the economy soon. Looking at you @Sonog , @Pags, and @IKE . Tell everyone how wrong he is.

University of Washington coronavirus modeler: Data showing 'the worst is behind us'

Dr. Ali Mokdad, the physician behind the influential coronavirus pandemic model at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Fox News Friday that "the worst is behind us as a country."

www.foxnews.com

I won't flat out say that he's wrong, but if I were interviewing him I would ask how he came to the conclusion that only 600,000 out of 300,000,000+ Americans would get the disease when 100x that many people got swine flu and there's supposedly no herd immunity to COVID-19.

 

[Flash]

As far as corona bro: you should get Twitter. I’m really enjoying it. Helps pass the time not at work. Edit: and no, just because I posted the picture doesn’t mean I endorse them, agree with what they’re saying, blah blah blah. Feel free to post some fear porn in “retaliation”.

View attachment 25094

Because when looking for entertainment you don't have to look further than a guy who went down the conspiracy rabbit hole at least 4 years ago.

 

[SlickAg]

I won't flat out say that he's wrong, but if I were interviewing him I would ask how he came to the conclusion that only 600,000 out of 300,000,000+ Americans would get the disease when 100x that many people got swine flu and there's supposedly no herd immunity to COVID-19.

Not to rain on your parade or whatever, but who DO you trust? Seems like there’s lots of armchair epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists, and the like these days.

I’d love to know why you feel as though even though he’s been vetted and trusted by a major research university, you have your doubts. Are you an MD, PhD, sort of dude? Or did you just sleep in a holiday inn express last night.

 

[IKE]

When you said you couldn’t save me from my own stupidity, I assumed you meant that I was going to die or something from Covid-19 since I think the economy should be responsibly reopened. I posted that tweet because you are a Marine Cobra pilot from SoCal, and I thought you’d like to comment on the stupidity of your service mandating haircuts and grooming regulations. Since I’m on a paid leave from my job, I’m staying at home and being socially distant. Your service is making you go out into the MCX so you can get a fresh haircut. Hence, why I said I prefer my (survival) odds over yours.

For all of the modeling enthusiasts out there, here’s an interview from the IHME model guy. Who says we should reopen the economy soon. Looking at you @Sonog , @Pags, and @IKE . Tell everyone how wrong he is.

University of Washington coronavirus modeler: Data showing 'the worst is behind us'

Dr. Ali Mokdad, the physician behind the influential coronavirus pandemic model at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Fox News Friday that "the worst is behind us as a country."

www.foxnews.com

I'm not sure what I did to warrant the shout out here, but I'll bite. I'm not prepared to say he's wrong, but nothing in the Fox News article tells me he's right. As usual with media bites about models, there is ZERO talk of the uncertainty of the input variables, assumptions, or sensitivity of output metrics. There's nothing to evaluate except a bald assertion that deaths-per-day has peaked or will soon.

The reason I'm suspicious of many models is that the sensitivity analysis is often overlooked (or at least, not reported). It's far too easy these days to put vast amounts of data into a computer and have it shit out a prediction, but it's a lot harder to do a professional job with the math, science, and underlying assumptions (I'm also a mild skeptic about anthropogenic global warming, so there's that...)

The level of detail and study required to make a good pandemic model means none of us lay folks could hope to verify his model, certainly not via interview or news article. The only thing I can do is wonder if he's the authority I'd trust, given his willingness to appear on such a fair and balanced news channel. I can also hope that the NIH/CDC teams vet their models.

 

[Jim123]

I'm not sure what I did to warrant the shout out here, but I'll bite. I'm not prepared to say he's wrong, but nothing in the Fox News article tells me he's right. As usual with media bites about models, there is ZERO talk of the uncertainty of the input variables, assumptions, or sensitivity of output metrics. There's nothing to evaluate except a bald assertion that deaths-per-day has peaked or will soon.

Why would they? Most of the viewership gets confused over their children's elementary school math homework.

(Which I understand to be what you're getting at.)