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Europe under extreme duress

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Waaaay oversimplification, I think claims like that (not necessarily from you) are a symptom of folks not realizing just how good we have it to include our government.

Believe me, I'm well-traveled enough to understand how good we do have it here. But being the best doesn't mean you stop seeing where improvements could be made. I think the allowance of free speech and criticism of our government leads to constructive feedback, despite all the ad hominem, alarmism, and fear mongering chaff that gets put out. So while it is an oversimplification to state that we are trending toward authoritarianism, it's one side effect that may arise from creating too many laws to administer, and too many agencies to oversee. We end up with fiefdoms who effectively (if not statutorily) answer to nobody. I'm not advocating massive deregulation, but there has to be a limit on what each layer of government (e.g. local, state, federal) is doing. Prioritize what can be done to a full level, rather than trying to fund & execute more than is possible to do in a competent manner. Yes, I understand it's hard to get there. But if we keep writing new laws without looking for old ones we can retire, we're going to continue trending toward more bureaucracy, less efficiency, and greater risk of effectively unilateral agencies and even whole branches of government.

CONGRESS passed that law. I am OK with that. That is the people's representatives representing them, apparently well since it was widely praised. I am not against regulations under executive branch authority for the very reasons you state. I am against the imperial nature of many of the agencies, encouraged by the presidency. You don't have to look far. Start with the EPA's moves. They have been stymied by the Federal courts. The court said it was beyond the power of a regulatory agency. That has happened before. Most times the case never goes far or gets the press because there isn't money for the little guy to appeal all the way. The EPA over reaching got ample funding from the energy companies to fight it.

...
You (responding to Flash) obviously disagree with me on this. That is quite alight. It is hardly a crisis yet. I am just wondering what it would take before you got uncomfortable with a regulatory agency's power and reach (hypothetically, of course). I am sure there is a limit for you. At some point it would cease to be a representative democracy. Executive branch agencies could ignore congress and the judiciary. Neither congress nor the federal courts have police forces to enforce their will.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Not a crisis, but something to guard against. How many politicians are calling for trimming the fat from the law books, the tax code, etc.? The ones who do hardly ever get anywhere because it's a tough sell to the voters and could be seen as undermining their own power.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Kidnapping attempt of a British airman outside a RAF base

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-36853106

Machete attack killing one and injuring more outside Stuttgart

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36879196

Adding onto the shooting in Munich, an ax attack on a train in Wuerzburg, the horrific Nice truck rampage and an attempted coup in Turkey - it has been a rough few weeks in Europe.

Update: Now a bomb explodes in Ansbach. Could be a gas explosion but the mayor just said it was an explosive device. 1 killed, 11 injured

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36880758
 
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Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Le Pen promises a referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU if elected. As the Front National has a very good chance of its candidate (Le Pen) making it to the 2nd round of elections (the French have a 1st round to narrow the field down to 2 candidates and then a 2nd round between the 2 candidates to determine the winner), it will be interesting to see if the other 2 parties (Parti Socialiste, Les Republicains) are pushed into giving the people a direct vote on the EU. Cameron was pushed into this in the UK and we saw how that worked out.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...en-if-im-elected-well-hold-vote-on-leaving-eu
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Of all the potential countries that could leave the EU, France is not on anyone's short list.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Of all the potential countries that could leave the EU, France is not on anyone's short list.
Because the votes aren't thought to be there for whatever reason, or they are too dependant economicly? I should think it is not because the French are so invested in the cultural and nation state independence minimizing Union. They are French after all. No shortage of pride and identity there.
 

Uncle Fester

Robot Pimp
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Because France and Germany are by far the strongest powers in the EU, especially when-if the Brits really do leave. They stand to lose far, far more than they'd gain by leaving.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
So dependant economicly. I would agree. Thing about that is, it is a reoccurring analysis of the cost vs benefit. And in reality, there are non ecomonic costs. If the cost becomes to high...
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Le Pen promises a referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU if elected. As the Front National has a very good chance of its candidate (Le Pen) making it to the 2nd round of elections....

They made it once before and got trounced in the final election because even though they have significant national support it isn't anywhere near a majority and enough French are still disgusted by Le Pen's father because of his racism and anti-semitism.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
They made it once before and got trounced in the final election because even though they have significant national support it isn't anywhere near a majority and enough French are still disgusted by Le Pen's father because of his racism and anti-semitism.

I think we had this same discussion concerning UKIP where they were the third largest party in Great Britain (like Front Nationale is in France). UKIP lost in the elections - but when a referendum was put in front of the people, they voted for Brexit.

France may be different, but then again... France would vote to leave the EU if it held a referendum, the country’s most celebrated living philosopher has said, as he warned that Europe has become “sad, grey and technocratic.” Bernard-Henri Levy, who is respected on both sides of the French political divide as a writer and activist, said his fellow countrymen would “probably” abandon the EU if they were given the chance.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-leave-eu-if-it-held-a-referendum-says-count/

Because the votes aren't thought to be there for whatever reason, or they are too dependant economicly? I should think it is not because the French are so invested in the cultural and nation state independence minimizing Union. They are French after all. No shortage of pride and identity there.

The waxing of supranational institutions, the waning of the national economy, the appearance of new immigrant communities, the disappearance of old industries and jobs: All of these are the tributaries spilling into the brackish bog called Frexit. As with Brexit, Frexit is fundamentally a crisis of national identity. The inability of both conservative and socialist governments to redress the growing social and economic fissures in French society, and to reinvent the republican model for the 21st century, has encouraged the retreat to nativism and nationalism.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/29/frexit-is-coming-brexit-france-le-pen/

A controversial French novel entitled "Submission" by Michel Houoellebecq came out last year (ironically on the day of the Charlie Hebdo massacre) whose plot line revolves around a French election in 2022 might be of interest for those following European politics. Might read it on the flight over to Europe in a few weeks.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I think we had this same discussion concerning UKIP where they were the third largest party in Great Britain (like Front Nationale is in France). UKIP lost in the elections - but when a referendum was put in front of the people, they voted for Brexit.

France may be different, but then again... France would vote to leave the EU if it held a referendum....

I don't think that the French would be stupid enough to hold a referendum now. And just because the FN is the third largest party in France doesn't mean they have a huge say in things, especially when they are a very distant third by most measures.

You also might want to stop saying that the UKIP is the 'third largest party in GB', they are the tenth largest party if you go by what actually counts in the UK, which is representation in Parliament.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
I don't think that the French would be stupid enough to hold a referendum now. And just because the FN is the third largest party in France doesn't mean they have a huge say in things, especially when they are a very distant third by most measures.

You also might want to stop saying that the UKIP is the 'third largest party in GB', they are the tenth largest party if you go by what actually counts in the UK, which is representation in Parliament.

In the link you provided (paragraph #4), it says that "Since then the Conservative and Labour Parties have dominated British politics, and have alternated in government ever since. However, the UK is not quite a two-party system as other parties have significant support. The Liberal Democrats had been the third largest party until the 2015 general election when it was overtaken by the Scottish National Party in terms of seats and by UKIP in terms of votes."

As they said in my NATO school, the answer to almost any question is: "It depends". If the Brexit vote on 23 June 2016 was in the House of Commons, then I would agree that the SNP would be the 3rd largest party. However, referendums are different animals than parliamentary elections and who is bringing more total votes in a national election is the more relevant metric - in that case, UKIP's 3.881 million votes was greater than the #4 Labour Party and #5 SNP's combined 3.870 million votes. If you want to disagree, by all means go ahead but that is the logic I used.

As for the reasoning behind the Brexit vote, Cameron never wanted to have a vote but was pushed to it by the Tories' continuous bleeding of votes to UKIP. The Guardian gives a good backstory to the maneuvering and infighting: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-did-uk-end-up-voting-leave-european-union

It will be interesting to see if Le Pen's tactics work similarly. Neither Les Republicains nor Parti Socialiste wants to let the people vote on a referendum but across the continent center left and center right parties are bleeding voters to the hard right and hard left as evidenced today in the German elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Merkel's home) Her center-right party (Christian Democrats) fell to the 3rd behind the center-left Social Democrats and the strengthening hard right Alternative for Germany (AfD). http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/09/04/world/europe/ap-eu-germany-election.html
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
In the link you provided (paragraph #4), it says that "Since then the Conservative and Labour Parties have dominated British politics, and have alternated in government ever since.... UKIP in terms of votes."

As they said in my NATO school, the answer to almost any question is: "It depends"....If you want to disagree, by all means go ahead but that is the logic I used.

I am sure their one Member of Parliment would agree but where it matters they have squat.

As for the reasoning behind the Brexit vote, Cameron never wanted to have a vote but was pushed to it by the Tories' continuous bleeding of votes to UKIP.

He could have easily absorbed the cost of not doing one, he took a gamble and lost and I think after that the French political leadership, Le Pen notwithstanding, wouldn't want to take that gamble.
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
History and culture is a bitch. The bureaucrats in Brussels are learning that............well at least the smart ones are.
 
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