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Europe under extreme duress

Eastern Hemisphere in bad shape - Western Hemisphere in good shape - at least according to George Friedman speaking at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. If you have an hour to kill, it might be worth your time.

 
Interesting development with our cousins' Brexit-or-not saga...

British court delivers blow to E.U. exit plan, insists Parliament has a say

"A senior British court on Thursday dealt a severe blow to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to begin the process of exiting the European Union early next year, ruling she must get Parliament’s approval before she acts...May will now have to decide whether to appeal to the Supreme Court. If she does, the proceedings could extend well into next year."

I don't know enough about Parliamentary politics to say how this would impact things. The 'regrexit' sentiment seemed pretty widespread immediately after the vote. Could this give the government the save-face fig leaf to back out of the Brexit?
 
Perspective on US-Germany relations from David Frum.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/trump-merkel-germany-europe/507773/

Ominously, the U.S.-Germany rift coincides with the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union—an exit that will greatly weaken London’s clout versus Berlin. Britain will need to renegotiate access to the EU market; Germany will have power to approve or refuse. The post-1945 vision of a secure and liberal Germany joined in an intimate partnership to the United States and the United Kingdom will fail. In its place: a Germany more distant from its former English-speaking allies, more vulnerable to an aggressive Russia, more polarized and afflicted by extremism in the wake of Merkel’s welcome of almost 2 million Middle Eastern and North African migrants. It’s not all Donald Trump’s fault. But he has in every way already made the situation gravely worse.
 
For those who missed it, Sarkozy just had his political career ended by finishing 3rd in the Les Republicain's primary. Looks like the contest between Fillon (a center-right politician) and Juppé (quite possibly getting socialists to crossover and vote for him) will have one spot in the general election and face Le Pen from the National Front. Both Fillon and Le Pen favor rapprochement with Moscow and a hard line on immigration.

http://www.economist.com/news/europ...-over-favourite-alain-jupp-republican-primary
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/21/can-french-sanity-hold-out-against-the-forces-of-the-far-right/

Merkel just announced she is running for her 4th term in the German elections of late 2017 and be facing a populist tide. Her CDU party is polling in the low-30% range, after winning 41.5% of the vote in a 2013 federal election. Still a long ways to go.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/angela-merkel-to-stand-for-re-election-as-german-chancellor-1479650799

Finally, Austria is having a redo of their Presidential election next month. The results from this summer's nail-biter (0.6% margin) were invalidated due to absentee ballot problems in the election between the Far Left and the Far Right.
 
Austria chooses former Green Party (4th largest party in Austria) candidate Van der Bellen over the FPO (3rd largest party in Austria) candidate Hofer. Extremely unusual was that neither of the 2 top parties was able to win the largely ceremonial position. Like everywhere else in the West, it is a very divided country, breaking once again along the Urban / Rural divide - in other words, Vienna against the rest of the nation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uffers-setback-as-austria-chooses-pro-eu-path


Meanwhile today in Italy:
Italian prime minister resigns in populist revolt
Europe’s embattled political establishment lost another round Sunday in its effort to thwart the anti-elite movement, as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned following a voter rejection of his constitutional reforms.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...1749443c5e5_story.html?utm_term=.f41a0f232a9d

European elections coming up in 2017 include The Netherlands (March), France (1st round April, 2nd round May), Germany (August-October) and the Czech Republic (October).

A complicating factor few seem to be looking at is across the Med in Algeria (population 40 million): President Boutiflika is in very ill health and if he dies, the country could go into civil war with another massive spillage of refugees into Europe.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/how-algeria-could-destroy-the-eu/
 
News coming from France. Les Republican's candidate Fillon (center-right) was originally considered to be a prohibitive favorite to win the French national election but now has been caught in a scandal? His wife has been paid over $500K but nobody seems to be able to find out what she actually did. According to the BBC...

There is also the fact that in his economic message he is urging the French to tighten belts and prepare for tough times. In the nation's current mood, there is little tolerance for politicians who come across as hypocrites. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38765426

and France24

Satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné reported this week that Penelope Fillon had been paid some 600,000 euros ($645,000) for many years of employment as a parliamentary assistant to Fillon, then as his replacement as a National Assembly lawmaker and also for work she did at a cultural journal. The newspaper said its research had showed there was no evidence she had ever really worked. http://www.france24.com/en/20170126...s-wife-rejects-allegations-fake-job-elections

If Fillon fades, this could set up a clash like the one earlier in Austria between the hard left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) and the far right (Marine Le Pen).
 
Randy Daytona said:
News coming from France. Les Republican's candidate Fillon (center-right) was originally considered to be a prohibitive favorite to win the French national election but now has been caught in a scandal? His wife has been paid over $500K but nobody seems to be able to find out what she actually did. According to the BBC...

There is also the fact that in his economic message he is urging the French to tighten belts and prepare for tough times. In the nation's current mood, there is little tolerance for politicians who come across as hypocrites. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38765426

and France24

Satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné reported this week that Penelope Fillon had been paid some 600,000 euros ($645,000) for many years of employment as a parliamentary assistant to Fillon, then as his replacement as a National Assembly lawmaker and also for work she did at a cultural journal. The newspaper said its research had showed there was no evidence she had ever really worked. http://www.france24.com/en/20170126...s-wife-rejects-allegations-fake-job-elections

If Fillon fades, this could set up a clash like the one earlier in Austria between the hard left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) and the far right (Marine Le Pen).
Click to expand...
It would probably be Macron v. Le Pen, I believe Macron has been consistently beating PS in the first round polls. Macron I think would have a very good chance of winning, though nothing is certain these days of course.
 
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