Europe under extreme duress

[Flash]

Putin played the somewhat limited hand he had pretty well for a very long time, until last year when he laid all his cards on the table thinking everyone else would just fold but Ukraine called his bluff. Since he helped make his country even more of a mess than it was before he ended up having to rely on mercenaries to do quite a bit of his heavy lifting in Ukraine, and when they proved somewhat competent the regular military legitimately saw them as a threat and tried to reign him in. It turns out the 'Chef' had other plans, such as they were, and a shitstorm ensued.

Excellent rundown of what is what @Uncle Fester!

I know a few actual Russia experts and even they scratching their heads and wondering just what the hell happens next. It is even harder than in the old days when Kremlinologists would wait with baited breath to see who would show up to the May Day parade and how close they were to the literal center of the reviewing party to get an idea of the latest internal politics of the Politburo.

 

[SynixMan]

Helicopters aren’t exactly hard to shoot down, especially with MANPADS… insurgents were shooting down Blackhawks every other week in Iraq for awhile with just RPGs. While modern weapons, they didn’t have any resemblance of an IADS as we know it on their little March. A further data point that attack/utility/lift helicopters are exactly survivable in modern war anywhere near a front line.

There were videos of them running their Pantsir-S1 systems on the M4 highway to Moscow. I'm guessing whoever was flying for the VKS that day didn't expect to get lit up by their own top tier SHORAD. They might have even mistaken it for their own and flown right into the WEZ.

 

[nittany03]

A few days earlier Shoigu ordered that the Wagner units to sign contracts joining the the regular army or disband; if they refused to do either, they would be declared an “illegal” force. Prigozhin has so many enemies within the nest of snakes Putin keeps around him, owning a personal army was about the only thing keeping him untouchable. So it looks like Shoigu forced his hand, and he and Putin either didn’t know or didn’t believe that Prigozhin would mutiny rather than go quietly.

There’s also the matter that the Wagner units remain loyal to Prigozhin personally, and nobody within Putin’s circle really knows how effective Prigozhin’s “I’m the savior of the Rodina” act has been with the army or the general public. So crushing the mutiny in good old traditional bloody Russian fashion risked both losing one of the few effective formations they’ve got left, and possibly making it worse by rallying the people to Prigozhin or making him a martyr. And whatever else happened, Vova would have to deal with a Russian civil war being live-streamed to the world.

Putin’s in real trouble. No matter what move he makes going forward, he risks looking vulnerable and out of control.

Everyone came out of this with egg on their faces. Prigozhin thought he could forestall a power play on Wagner, and that if he'd make a thunder run to Moscow, half the Russian military would join in. Instead he ended up like Will Ferrell in Old School as the only guy running naked down the street. Meanwhile Putin looks like a clown after he took less than 24 hours to go from "this is treason and it will be crushed" to "OK, I'll sign the sweetheart non-prosecution deal my mini-me just made." And Shoigu et al look like chumps after a literal armed insurrection gets within 2 hours' drive of Red Square, the Russian military could do fuck-all to stop it, and it only ended because Wagner quit.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Do you have a reliable source indicating there is a standing army that is fighting ready that could have protected Moscow from Wagner's claimed 25k troops? Details are scarce, and if that's true, it would help me understand how this came about. My understanding was that the Russian national guard was mostly in play in Ukraine already, and any force to counter Wagner would have had to come from the front lines.

Rosgvardia - the Russian National Guard - has a published strength of about 340,000 members; how many are in-around Moscow Oblast isn’t widely published but since internal security is their main function, it makes sense that the bulk of them would be garrisoned in or near the major cities. That includes aviation, SOBR (spetznaz) and OMON (military police) troops. It’s also worth noting that the Rosgvardia CoC reports to Putin personally, not through the MoD.

FSB, as the spiritual successors of the KGB, keeps its numbers more close-hold, but it’s in the 200K range. How many of those are Field officers, let alone paramilitaries, is up for educated guess.

Point remains: more than Prigozhin could muster.

There were videos of them running their Pantsir-S1 systems on the M4 highway to Moscow. I'm guessing whoever was flying for the VKS that day didn't expect to get lit up by their own top tier SHORAD. They might have even mistaken it for their own and flown right into the WEZ.

I was going to make the same point but ya beat me to it. Pantsirs are nasty pieces of work even if you’re expecting them.

 

[nittany03]

Rosgvardia - the Russian National Guard - has a published strength of about 340,000 members; how many are in-around Moscow Oblast isn’t widely published but since internal security is their main function, it makes sense that the bulk of them would be garrisoned in or near the major cities. That includes aviation, SOBR (spetznaz) and OMON (military police) troops. It’s also worth noting that the Rosgvardia CoC reports to Putin personally, not through the MoD.

FSB, as the spiritual successors of the KGB, keeps its numbers more close-hold, but it’s in the 200K range. How many of those are Field officers, let alone paramilitaries, is up for educated guess.

Point remains: more than Prigozhin could muster.

And yet who would or wouldn't fight? There's open-source reporting that the Wagner convoy bypassed at least one FSB or military checkpoint where the guards just laid down their arms. That's the sticky part going forward . . . how much control do Putin and his minions have over people now? You can have all the paper strength in the world, but people don't count towards end-strength if they're people you'd order to fight and they'd go "IDGAF, no."

 

[Uncle Fester]

@nittany03 I’m stealing the Will Ferrell analogy. Though it’s probably worth pointing out that when you’re a couple of FSB privates on a roadblock with AKMs and the other dudes got tanks and BMPs, maybe discretion vs valor, etc., is understandable.

I’m guessing Putin agreed to the “deal” to get the tanks off the streets and avoid the inevitable shitshow being broadcast on world media…things were already humiliating enough for him without that. Putin isn’t somebody you pull your gun on unless you fully intend to pull the trigger, so for the moment anyway, Prigozhin looks like a hero just for walking away in one piece. But in the words of the mythical warrior-poet Omar Little, “Come at the king, you best not miss.”

 

[taxi1]

Putin hasn't said a peep since his morning speech the other day. Kind of weird. no weirder than the rest of the shitshow, of course.

edit: guess he just talked...

 

[Griz882]

Wasn't he living/working in Belarus?

Yes.

 

[nittany03]

edit: guess he just talked...

At this point it kind of comes across like the loudmouth at the bar going "I totally would have kicked his ass, brah!"

 

[Uncle Fester]

Putin hasn't said a peep since his morning speech the other day. Kind of weird. no weirder than the rest of the shitshow, of course.

edit: guess he just talked...

At this point it kind of comes across like the loudmouth at the bar going "I totally would have kicked his ass, brah!"

That's more or less exactly what he said...

Putin claims Russia would have crushed rebellion but Wagner fighters will be allowed to go to Belarus​

I get what the RuMOD gets out of this. Wagner stays on the board, albeit off to the side where the FSB can vet them and maybe the loyalty-suspect ones can be quietly shuffled off to somewhere obscure, or just disappeared. As long as they're a force in being they're an at least potential threat.

I get what the Wagner guys get - a nice quiet place out of the line indefinitely that they know the Ukrainians aren't going to hit. And if they decide to prematurely informally resign their contracts, nobody's going to say boo (they're certainly not going to get bashed in with a sledgehammer, which was the previous early-termination penalty).

I don't get why Prigozhin thinks this is a good idea. Lukashenko is basically Putin's purse dog, he can reach out and touch Prigozhin whenever he feels the time's ripe, and the Belarussians aren't going to give a shit what happens to him. He'd be equally safe from Vova if he was staying in his guest room. And you don't survive that long in Putin's circle if you're an idiot, so my bet is he'll be out of there as soon as he's done stuffing his suitcases with gold, loose diamonds, and kompromat. Hightail it for Angola or Mozambique or one of the other shitholes where Wagner is basically a branch of the government.

 

[Mirage]

Rosgvardia - the Russian National Guard - has a published strength of about 340,000 members; how many are in-around Moscow Oblast isn’t widely published but since internal security is their main function, it makes sense that the bulk of them would be garrisoned in or near the major cities. That includes aviation, SOBR (spetznaz) and OMON (military police) troops. It’s also worth noting that the Rosgvardia CoC reports to Putin personally, not through the MoD.

FSB, as the spiritual successors of the KGB, keeps its numbers more close-hold, but it’s in the 200K range. How many of those are Field officers, let alone paramilitaries, is up for educated guess.

Point remains: more than Prigozhin could muster.

I was going to make the same point but ya beat me to it. Pantsirs are nasty pieces of work even if you’re expecting them.

I get your point, but none of those numbers refer to a standing army that is ready to fight. We have many thousands of national guardsmen too, but they arent always sitting in tanks around the white house. Most are sitting at home. And there has been reporting for a long time that they're deployed in Ukraine.

Everyone came out of this with egg on their faces. Prigozhin thought he could forestall a power play on Wagner, and that if he'd make a thunder run to Moscow, half the Russian military would join in. Instead he ended up like Will Ferrell in Old School as the only guy running naked down the street. Meanwhile Putin looks like a clown after he took less than 24 hours to go from "this is treason and it will be crushed" to "OK, I'll sign the sweetheart non-prosecution deal my mini-me just made." And Shoigu et al look like chumps after a literal armed insurrection gets within 2 hours' drive of Red Square, the Russian military could do fuck-all to stop it, and it only ended because Wagner quit.

Your argument is trying to have it both ways. Wagner is so weak and nobody joined in... But they were so scary to Putin that he signed an awful concession, and Wagner could have taken Moscow.

I know I'm throwing stones here and have no answers. Just playing the devil's advocate to point out the flaws in the arguments. None of this makes any more sense to me.

 

[nittany03]

Your argument is trying to have it both ways. Wagner is so weak and nobody joined in... But they were so scary to Putin that he signed an awful concession, and Wagner could have taken Moscow.

I know I'm throwing stones here and have no answers. Just playing the devil's advocate to point out the flaws in the arguments. None of this makes any more sense to me.

My point wasn't to literally talk about who could have done what. My point is that if you look at it from all angles, everyone involved ultimately projected weakness, and that's destabilizing. No, I don't think Wagner could have taken Moscow any more than I think they "took" Rostov-on-Don. What matters is that this is a mafia-like society, and three or four of the main dons just got humiliated.

 

[Griz882]

Prigozhin’s “coup”’is one of Pro-Russian rhetoric vs actual military strength. If he can get enough Russian combat veterans to believe they were led to slaughter by a weak/poor leader (Team Putin) then he can build an army, using his as the core, to take Moscow.

 

[Mirage]

My point wasn't to literally talk about who could have done what. My point is that if you look at it from all angles, everyone involved ultimately projected weakness, and that's destabilizing. No, I don't think Wagner could have taken Moscow any more than I think they "took" Rostov-on-Don. What matters is that this is a mafia-like society, and three or four of the main dons just got humiliated.

That's why this is all so odd. Why did Putin sign this deal? Do you really think you have a more accurate estimation of Wagner's and Putin's actual strengths than Putin did? You think you know Wagner wasn't actually strong enough to take Moscow, but Putin did not? If Putin did know Prig was screwed, why project weakness and risk his own future? Do you think killing Russian mercenary rebels would have looked that bad, if he indeed had this overwhelming force and capability to do so? On the other hand, if Wagner was actually strong enough and both sides knew it, then why did Prig sign this deal, if it really will likely mean his assassination down the road? To borrow your analogy, mafia dons don't project weakness like that unless they have absolutely no choice... they'd sooner die fighting, because they know that's what will happen if they lose anyway.

My point is that there seems to be folks here talking definitively about things that we don't know definitively. I don't get the sense that people know they are speculating wildly, though that's what they're doing.

 

[Random8145]

Rosgvardia - the Russian National Guard - has a published strength of about 340,000 members; how many are in-around Moscow Oblast isn’t widely published but since internal security is their main function, it makes sense that the bulk of them would be garrisoned in or near the major cities. That includes aviation, SOBR (spetznaz) and OMON (military police) troops. It’s also worth noting that the Rosgvardia CoC reports to Putin personally, not through the MoD.

FSB, as the spiritual successors of the KGB, keeps its numbers more close-hold, but it’s in the 200K range. How many of those are Field officers, let alone paramilitaries, is up for educated guess.

Point remains: more than Prigozhin could muster.

I was going to make the same point but ya beat me to it. Pantsirs are nasty pieces of work even if you’re expecting them.

How well trained, equipped, and ready to fight are those troops though? If they are as well-armed as the regular army but better trained, that's like 500,000 troops in total, you're talking U.S. active-duty Army size and hence budget as well I'd think.

One thing I think that showed Putin was in real trouble was he called the leadership of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey.