Europe under extreme duress

[Random8145]

Putin played the somewhat limited hand he had pretty well for a very long time, until last year when he laid all his cards on the table thinking everyone else would just fold but Ukraine called his bluff. Since he helped make his country even more of a mess than it was before he ended up having to rely on mercenaries to do quite a bit of his heavy lifting in Ukraine, and when they proved somewhat competent the regular military legitimately saw them as a threat and tried to reign him in. It turns out the 'Chef' had other plans, such as they were, and a shitstorm ensued.

I'm guessing he probably also thought his military was more capable than it really was.

 

[Uncle Fester]

It really doesn't matter how many combat-ready (or even how many, period, really) troops Putin was going to be able to put on the highway to Moscow. It's not a game of Risk. The point is that if Prigozhin didn't have government troops publicly and definitively throwing in with him, he was fucked, whether he actually got into Moscow or not. A successful coup requires taking control of the apparatus of the legitimate government, not simply storming into the legislature and waving guns around. A bunch of bitter-ender Francoist officers tried that in Spain in 1981 and it worked about as well as you'd expect (the plotters all went to prison).

 

[ChuckMK23]

 

[taxi1]

My point is that there seems to be folks here talking definitively about things that we don't know definitively. I don't get the sense that people know they are speculating wildly, though that's what they're doing.

I'm definitely in the "guessing out my ass" camp. I don't think there's ever been a story anywhere near this complex where the hot takes weren't wrong, and this one screams "bad hot takes".

So many wars and other screw ups happen when positions and intentions aren't clearly signaled or misinterpreted. I wonder...

 

[Uncle Fester]

ISW as usual has some high-fiber food for thought on the situation, namely that Putin offered the Belarus "exile" as a way for the Wagner troops more loyal to Prigozhin personally than to Russia to self-identify:

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so. Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I'm definitely in the "guessing out my ass" camp. I don't think there's ever been a story anywhere near this complex where the hot takes weren't wrong, and this one screams "bad hot takes".

So many wars and other screw ups happen when positions and intentions aren't clearly signaled or misinterpreted. I wonder...

I'm with you. But I am pretty sure this little interlude is not over. I'd say there's about an 80% chance that Prigohzin is vanished or dead within a year. That's about the only prediction I'm willing to make.

 

[Flash]

That's why this is all so odd. Why did Putin sign this deal? Do you really think you have a more accurate estimation of Wagner's and Putin's actual strengths than Putin did? You think you know Wagner wasn't actually strong enough to take Moscow, but Putin did not? ... To borrow your analogy, mafia dons don't project weakness like that unless they have absolutely no choice... they'd sooner die fighting, because they know that's what will happen if they lose anyway.

I think the big problem for both sides was that things were so uncertain they wanted to play it safe instead of actually fighting it out on the streets of Moscow. So they both blinked. I think Prigozhin did because he didn't really know what his endgame was and Putin because he was alarmed at just how far Wagner got in such a short time, so they bought themselves time to figure out what to do next. Prigozhin is probably thinking about what comes immediately next and that includes his survival, while Putin cut a deal to get some time to get his own house in order while mitigating the immediate threat...followed by a defenestration and/or poisoning sometime in the future.

 

[taxi1]

If I'm Prigozhin, my immediate goal is to take my Wagner bubbas and turn Belarus into a failed state with me as a warlord over Independent Quadrant of Prigozhia.

 

[sevenhelmet]

If I'm Prigozhin, my immediate goal is to take my Wagner bubbas and turn Belarus into a failed state with me as a warlord over Independent Quadrant of Prigozhia.

If I were Prigozhin, I'd find a nice, comfy, off-grid spot to retire, well away from Belarus and Russia.

 

[Uncle Fester]

If I'm Prigozhin, my immediate goal is to take my Wagner bubbas and turn Belarus into a failed state with me as a warlord over Independent Quadrant of Prigozhia.

If I were Prigozhin, I'd find a nice, comfy, off-grid spot to retire, well away from Belarus and Russia.

Probably Libya. Wagner already has a big presence there, the government is only semi-functional (so he doesn’t need to worry about extradition east or west). Nice climate to boot, at least on the coast.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Prigozhin and his crew wear out their welcome with Lukashenko real fast. Wagner has a reputation in the countries they’ve operated that makes the Hells Angels look like Teletubbies.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Probably Libya. Wagner already has a big presence there, the government is only semi-functional (so he doesn’t need to worry about extradition east or west). Nice climate to boot, at least on the coast.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Prigozhin and his crew wear out their welcome with Lukashenko real fast. Wagner has a reputation in the countries they’ve operated that makes the Hells Angels look like Teletubbies.

Not sure Lukashenko's crowd is much better. I am curious how many of Prig's followers are taking the bait and going up to Belarus though.

 

[robav8r]

Probably Libya. Wagner already has a big presence there, the government is only semi-functional (so he doesn’t need to worry about extradition east or west). Nice climate to boot, at least on the coast.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Prigozhin and his crew wear out their welcome with Lukashenko real fast. Wagner has a reputation in the countries they’ve operated that makes the Hells Angels look like Teletubbies.

Quote of the week right here ?

 

[taxi1]

Somebody photoshop Prigozhin in here...

 

[sevenhelmet]

That's pretty good. I was thinking about some kind of "Mad Max: Fury Road" meme for Prigozhin's mad rush to Moscow... He "saw the desert" and doubled back, just like the movie.

 

[Random8145]

I think the big problem for both sides was that things were so uncertain they wanted to play it safe instead of actually fighting it out on the streets of Moscow. So they both blinked. I think Prigozhin did because he didn't really know what his endgame was and Putin because he was alarmed at just how far Wagner got in such a short time, so they bought themselve3s time to figure out what to do next. Prigozhin is probably thinking about what comes immediately next and that includes his survival, while Putin cut a deal to get some time to get his own house in order while mitigating the immediate threat...followed by a defenestration and/or poisoning sometime in the future.

I just don't get how he could be so stupid though. I mean did he really not have a plan on what to do once he got to Moscow?