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Europe under extreme duress

hscs

Registered User
pilot
Likely a tactical victory but strategic blunder. US and international community is more likely to pressure Netanyahu to make concessions to Hamas to end hostilities now that Hezbollah has formally entered the conflict. And yes, everyone knows they were supporting Hamas, but imagine the response if we got attacked on US soil for supplying Israel.

Israel also did a poor IO job of controlling the messaging after the strike.

Could change if Trump gets elected, but that's a case of better to be lucky than good.
How so? Between the beeper / radio hits, other leadership elimination, and killing the leader of an organization that wants you wiped off the map, I would say it was pretty smart. Take out all of the principals and hundreds of operatives in short order puts the organization on its heels. Those that do survive will fight each other for control / try and purge who were the leaks for the beeper hit.

It also eliminates any brain power that Iran can use to use them as a puppet.

And if that’s not enough, when has Israel ever apologized? If there was a country that was firing rockets at us daily, we wouldn’t apologize for killing their leader.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
I explained how so. Israel is trying to secure itself against Hamas and overtly dragging a very popular national government into the conflict will ultimately be counter-productive to its aims.

Envision that Hamas managed to coordinate an attack that killed Biden, Secretary Austin, and the COCOMs because *they* think the Democrat party is a terrorist organization. Does that do anything to help their cause for a single state Palestine? Does that actually remove all American "brain power" from political and military leadership? Or does that change our stance from "yeah I guess we'll sell you some weapons as long as you don't go scorched earth on Hamas and Gaza" to full-on use of military force with an international coalition?

Similarly, there's a reason we don't just make Ali Khamenei and Iran's top Generals disappear even though we could.

President Biden isn't happy with the escalation. It's not going to go well for Israel. Israel has now put itself in a position where it would have to invade Southern Lebanon to achieve its objectives or agree to concessions as mediated by the US and its allies.
 
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ChuckMK23

FERS and TSP contributor!
pilot
I explained how so. Israel is trying to secure itself against Hamas and overtly dragging a very popular national government into the conflict will ultimately be counter-productive to its aims.

Envision that Hamas managed to coordinate an attack that killed Biden, Secretary Austin, and the COCOMs because *they* think the Democrat party is a terrorist organization. Does that do anything to help their cause for a single state Palestine? Does that actually remove all American "brain power" from political and military leadership? Or does that change our stance from "yeah I guess we'll sell you some weapons as long as you don't go scorched earth on Hamas and Gaza" to full-on use of military force with an international coalition?

Similarly, there's a reason we don't just make Ali Khamenei and Iran's top Generals disappear even though we could.

President Biden isn't happy with the escalation. It's not going to go well for Israel. Israel has now put itself in a position where it would have to invade Southern Lebanon to achieve its objectives or agree to concessions as mediated by the US and its allies.
Israel has virtue on their side. They cannot thrive as a society and repeat the last 50 years of the policies of Hez and Hamas.

Depopulate Gaza and West Bank. Provide a path for "Palestinians" to migrate and resettle on the African continent. Destroy the ideology calling for destruction of Israel. Then Israel should normalize and indeed invest in relationships with KSA and Emirates and build an economic and technological powerhouse.
 

hscs

Registered User
pilot
I explained how so. Israel is trying to secure itself against Hamas and overtly dragging a very popular national government into the conflict will ultimately be counter-productive to its aims.

Envision that Hamas managed to coordinate an attack that killed Biden, Secretary Austin, and the COCOMs because *they* think the Democrat party is a terrorist organization. Does that do anything to help their cause for a single state Palestine? Does that actually remove all American "brain power" from political and military leadership? Or does that change our stance from "yeah I guess we'll sell you some weapons as long as you don't go scorched earth on Hamas and Gaza" to full-on use of military force with an international coalition?

Similarly, there's a reason we don't just make Ali Khamenei and Iran's top Generals disappear even though we could.

President Biden isn't happy with the escalation. It's not going to go well for Israel. Israel has now put itself in a position where it would have to invade Southern Lebanon to achieve its objectives or agree to concessions as mediated by the US and its allies.
Two fronts - and they just eliminated (maybe just temporarily) the paramilitary / authoritarian group within a state which another state is using as a proxy. This allows a focus back south. With the chaos that they caused within Hezbollah (not Hamas), they may not have to invade. Making the situation a one front issue is pretty strategic.

POTUS isn’t happy about the humanitarian situation in the south with the fight against Hamas. However, he just called Hezbollah’s leader death a “measure of justice”. I tend to agree, and probably the 300+ families of Marines and diplomats killed by his antics.

To your second point, we have killed and captured Iranian generals. See “Soleimani”.

Last, none of us know the real going’s on that led to their decision, so this is all a thought experiment. It could have been an opportunity, or there could have been a significant threat coming that they were preemptively targeting.
 

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
I doubt IR wants any of this smoke. I'm guessing they'll try some face-saving action for domestic politics. Just my opinion...
 
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