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Europe under extreme duress

jarhead

UAL CA; retired hinge
pilot

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
The gap from the Carpathian mountains to the Baltic Sea accesses the European heartland to the much larger Asian mainland - with the only barriers being rivers such as the Vistula which bisects Poland. These bloodlands have been some of the most contested geography for centuries. When? 3 years, 3 decades - but history suggests the strategic location of the Northern European Plain will be in perpetual conflict.

In related news, Poland just placed an order for 250 US Abrams tanks.


$6 billion tank deal to Poland cleared by State Department​

By Jen Judson
Friday, Feb 18

And because I like maps, here is a map of the constantly changing borders (and populations) of Europe over the centuries. Another map showing the physical features of Europe.

View attachment 34546



You don't "bitch slap" someone with 6,000 nuclear warheads.

As for hard sanctions, Russia is the world's biggest producers of oil and natural gas - you take that off the market and Europe freezes. Likewise, Russia is the world's biggest exporter of wheat (Ukraine is 4th) and the world will see famine, compounded by the fact that Russia is one of the largest exporters of ammonia which is the basis of nitrogen fertilizer - again, famine. This doesn't take into account other minerals such as coal and rare earth metals needed for modern economies. Finally, the political ramifications of hard sanctions will drive inflation, already at a 40 year high, even higher. This is not something that the ruling parties with upcoming elections want (In addition to US midterms, there is an election in France this year.)
On the nuclear issue, I think you could most definitely "bitch slap" someone like a Putin. Just because he has nukes doesn't mean he will use them. By that logic, Russia, China, etc...can do whatever they want and not fear anything from the West due to it being fearful of them. Remember, the U.S. has nukes too, and Putin isn't stupid.
 

ABMD

Bullets don't fly without Supply
On the nuclear issue, I think you could most definitely "bitch slap" someone like a Putin. Just because he has nukes doesn't mean he will use them. By that logic, Russia, China, etc...can do whatever they want and not fear anything from the West due to it being fearful of them. Remember, the U.S. has nukes too, and Putin isn't stupid.
He may not be stupid, but maybe he is crazy enough to use them. Crazy =/= stupid.
 

Max the Mad Russian

Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
For now Russians spent 160+ Caliber TLAMs from surface ships (my fucking profession) and 30+ X-101 air-launched cruise missiles. About 22% failed to home. What they have in stock is 100+ Calibers and 130+ air-launched X-101s. Guys please if you have at least some influence use it now since tomorrow they will be empty of smart weapons and start to drop iron bombs which they have a lot with colossal collateral damage. Putin apparently lost his mind just like Saddam 20 years ago, so Ukraine needs help. We'll cope on our own but it will take decades of suffer. Let's finish this madness together, if it's possible
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Nuclear entanglement is an issue. I believe quite a few SS-26 Iskander (NATO "Stone") have been deployed, and they are duel use weapons.
I don’t know enough about Russian nuke command and control systems, but I rather doubt that officers below the “mad general” level will actually smash the “end-o-the-world” button. It is one thing to be a megalomaniac but quite another to launch an attack that will result in the total destruction of the thing you love most (Mother Russia). Like Sting sang…let’s “hope the Russians love their children too.”
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
For now Russians spent 160+ Caliber TLAMs from surface ships (my fucking profession) and 30+ X-101 air-launched cruise missiles. About 22% failed to home. What they have in stock is 100+ Calibers and 130+ air-launched X-101s. Guys please if you have at least some influence use it now since tomorrow they will be empty of smart weapons and start to drop iron bombs which they have a lot with colossal collateral damage. Putin apparently lost his mind just like Saddam 20 years ago, so Ukraine needs help. We'll cope on our own but it will take decades of suffer. Let's finish this madness together, if it's possible
Stay low and hang on Max…I wish there was something I could do.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
On the nuclear issue, I think you could most definitely "bitch slap" someone like a Putin. Just because he has nukes doesn't mean he will use them. By that logic, Russia, China, etc...can do whatever they want and not fear anything from the West due to it being fearful of them. Remember, the U.S. has nukes too, and Putin isn't stupid.
I will respectfully disagree. There is a reason that US and Russian forces never engaged each other directly (not via proxy) in the Cold War - the threat of nuclear escalation.

That said, if a land based power and a sea based power engage in a very limited (ie tactical) nuclear exchange, the sea based power would be at a disadvantage: land forces are more spread out and can be replaced significantly faster vs naval forces (and infrastructure) that are very high value targets that take years to replace.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
I will respectfully disagree. There is a reason that US and Russian forces never engaged each other directly (not via proxy) in the Cold War - the threat of nuclear escalation.

That said, if a land based power and a sea based power engage in a very limited (ie tactical) nuclear exchange, the sea based power would be at a disadvantage: land forces are more spread out and can be replaced significantly faster vs naval forces (and infrastructure) that are very high value targets that take years to replace.
Yes but I am not talking about U.S. forces directly engaging Russian forces, I am talking about sanctions and proxy fighting (supply the Ukrainians). That said, the Russians need to be fearful of challenging the United States in the same way that many in the U.S. are fearful of Russia.

Many seem to have the view that Putin is crazy but I don't think so at all. I think he is an ultra-patriotic Russian nationalist who sees it as his sacred duty to protect Russia against the decadence of the West (as he sees it) and rebuild the Russian empire. Ukraine is a major keystone in that. The other former Soviet bloc states are nice to have too, but Ukraine is the major prize. It accounted for I believe about 70% of Soviet agricultural production during the Cold War. It has the most fertile agricultural soil in the world.. It is a land route through which to invade Russia. It has important natural resources and it provides access to the Black Sea via the warm water port at Sevastopol.

This is just my opinion if course, but saying Putin is crazy I think is applying a Western mindset to what is not a Western mindset. The Russian mindset is alien in many ways to a Westerner. For two reasons:

1) Communism and the collectivist brainwashing that occurred along with the lack of knowledge, upbringing, or understanding of human rights as we know them

2) WWII. Russia still hasn't psychologically gotten over what happened to them in WW2 by Germany. They lost anywhere from 20 - 40 million people and the level of brutality exhibited by the Germans was extreme (shooting babies, burning people alive, etc...).

And then unfortunately many Russians do the exact same thing many Westerners do, which is to apply THEIR mindset to the West, so they think the West thinks and reasons like them. So to a Westerner, the Russians and Putin are just bullies and liars and thugs. They know there is no threat of the West invading Russia or anything like that. From the Russian mindset though, it is different. They see a majorly important piece of land that directly borders Russia possibly joining NATO. They see the West more and more encroaching the sacred Russian homeland and Russia becoming more and more vulnerable to potential invasion should the West ever fall prey to a Hitler again. IRONICALLY, there is some truth to this too I think, because there are those who say it would be a bad idea right now to let Germany build up a fully offensive capable military, if it so desired.

The thing is though, the Russians themselves ARE bullies and seek to expand their territory in the name of communism and glory. So it's a weird combination of protect the sacred Russian homeland/expand communism around the whole planet, although maybe not so much the communism aspect now but Russia is not a land of free enterprise either.

I think Putin has just made a calculated decision that now is the time to try and take Ukraine. Western Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy, the U.S. public is war weary, the U.S. leadership are idiots, and Russia he believes has enough military capability to pull it off.
 

Max the Mad Russian

Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Like Sting sang…let’s “hope the Russians love their children too.”
Well, Sting is school teacher by first trade. Putin is spy. Any spy in Russia knows that average Russian military officer has no idea what liberal arts is, nor history of course. It's better for anyone on Western side to understand that Russian military education and training doesn't include any academical stage in history as science, let alone major degree. Russian flag officers are as fluent in the basics of society-related sciences as 7-years old child. They will push the red button when ordered. Sometimes when I talk to my naval college classmates I wonder how and why they allowed to substitute their heads with TV-sets with the sole propaganda channel tuned on... Yes, they love their children too, but... We mostly have no habit to think by our own brain, all who was born in USSR. Yes the troops rolling on Ukranian soil are young enough to remember it, but their education level is even lower. Just like ancient Rome, you face barbarians now, believe me. And seeing the only Slavic country that raised against it, Ukraine, they wanted to return her into stone age of Orthodox world. The most significant challenges are always cultural, not economical nor political. Russians behave just like that, suppressing that cultural challenge. Well, we'll give them hell.
 
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