Europe under extreme duress

[Griz882]

UK sources say Putin's losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armored vehicles. The Ukrainian’s are putting up a strong if futile resistance. The following insurgent war will be devastating.

 

[wink]

UK sources say Putin's losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armored vehicles. The Ukrainian’s are putting up a strong if futile resistance. The following insurgent war will be devastating.

The stronger Ukrainian military resistance is now, the larger the myth of the heros and ordinary people who rose to the occasion. That will fuel the insurgency. Though the near term result is obvious, the sacrifice made now has an enduring value.

 

[Mos]

Yes but I am not talking about U.S. forces directly engaging Russian forces, I am talking about sanctions and proxy fighting (supply the Ukrainians). That said, the Russians need to be fearful of challenging the United States in the same way that many in the U.S. are fearful of Russia.

Many seem to have the view that Putin is crazy but I don't think so at all. I think he is an ultra-patriotic Russian nationalist who sees it as his sacred duty to protect Russia against the decadence of the West (as he sees it) and rebuild the Russian empire. Ukraine is a major keystone in that. The other former Soviet bloc states are nice to have too, but Ukraine is the major prize. It accounted for I believe about 70% of Soviet agricultural production during the Cold War. It has the most fertile agricultural soil in the world.. It is a land route through which to invade Russia. It has important natural resources and it provides access to the Black Sea via the warm water port at Sevastopol.

This is just my opinion if course, but saying Putin is crazy I think is applying a Western mindset to what is not a Western mindset. The Russian mindset is alien in many ways to a Westerner. For two reasons:

1) Communism and the collectivist brainwashing that occurred along with the lack of knowledge, upbringing, or understanding of human rights as we know them

2) WWII. Russia still hasn't psychologically gotten over what happened to them in WW2 by Germany. They lost anywhere from 20 - 40 million people and the level of brutality exhibited by the Germans was extreme (shooting babies, burning people alive, etc...).

And then unfortunately many Russians do the exact same thing many Westerners do, which is to apply THEIR mindset to the West, so they think the West thinks and reasons like them. So to a Westerner, the Russians and Putin are just bullies and liars and thugs. They know there is no threat of the West invading Russia or anything like that. From the Russian mindset though, it is different. They see a majorly important piece of land that directly borders Russia possibly joining NATO. They see the West more and more encroaching the sacred Russian homeland and Russia becoming more and more vulnerable to potential invasion should the West ever fall prey to a Hitler again. IRONICALLY, there is some truth to this too I think, because there are those who say it would be a bad idea right now to let Germany build up a fully offensive capable military, if it so desired.

The thing is though, the Russians themselves ARE bullies and seek to expand their territory in the name of communism and glory. So it's a weird combination of protect the sacred Russian homeland/expand communism around the whole planet, although maybe not so much the communism aspect now but Russia is not a land of free enterprise either.

I think Putin has just made a calculated decision that now is the time to try and take Ukraine. Western Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy, the U.S. public is war weary, the U.S. leadership are idiots, and Russia he believes has enough military capability to pull it off.

 

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

There’s a distinct lack of dank memes being posted regarding Ivan’s bullshit. Clearly this needs to be rectified.

 

[Brett327]

On the nuclear issue, I think you could most definitely "bitch slap" someone like a Putin. Just because he has nukes doesn't mean he will use them. By that logic, Russia, China, etc...can do whatever they want and not fear anything from the West due to it being fearful of them. Remember, the U.S. has nukes too, and Putin isn't stupid.

A certain three letter agency has a very interesting brief on Russian red lines that would, in their judgement, trigger the use of nukes.

 

[WhiskeySierra6]

The gap from the Carpathian mountains to the Baltic Sea accesses the European heartland to the much larger Asian mainland - with the only barriers being rivers such as the Vistula which bisects Poland. These bloodlands have been some of the most contested geography for centuries. When? 3 years, 3 decades - but history suggests the strategic location of the Northern European Plain will be in perpetual conflict.

In related news, Poland just placed an order for 250 US Abrams tanks.

$6 billion tank deal to Poland cleared by State Department

The State Department has approved the sale of M1 Abrams tanks to Poland as regional tensions continue to rise as Russian aggression on its border with Ukraine builds.

www.defensenews.com

$6 billion tank deal to Poland cleared by State Department​

By Jen Judson
Friday, Feb 18

And because I like maps, here is a map of the constantly changing borders (and populations) of Europe over the centuries. Another map showing the physical features of Europe.

View attachment 34546

You don't "bitch slap" someone with 6,000 nuclear warheads.

As for hard sanctions, Russia is the world's biggest producers of oil and natural gas - you take that off the market and Europe freezes. Likewise, Russia is the world's biggest exporter of wheat (Ukraine is 4th) and the world will see famine, compounded by the fact that Russia is one of the largest exporters of ammonia which is the basis of nitrogen fertilizer - again, famine. This doesn't take into account other minerals such as coal and rare earth metals needed for modern economies. Finally, the political ramifications of hard sanctions will drive inflation, already at a 40 year high, even higher. This is not something that the ruling parties with upcoming elections want (In addition to US midterms, there is an election in France this year.)

I see someone is current on their Zeihan newsletters. ?

 

[Randy Daytona]

I see someone is current on their Zeihan newsletters. ?

Absolutely. Along with the Hoover Institution’s The Goodfellows and Ian Bremmer’s G-Zero media.

Your thoughts?

 

[WhiskeySierra6]

Absolutely. Along with the Hoover Institution’s The Goodfellows and Ian Bremmer’s G-Zero media.

Your thoughts?

Absent Superpower: Chapter 6 pretty much sums it up. I think Russia will have its hands full with conventional or insurgent forces (if it comes to that). If they attack an Article 5 country then shit will hit the fan Desert Storm style.

 

[Random8145]

A certain three letter agency has a very interesting brief on Russian red lines that would, in their judgement, trigger the use of nukes.

Do you have a link? I would like to read it.

 

[Random8145]

Absent Superpower: Chapter 6 pretty much sums it up. I think Russia will have its hands full with conventional or insurgent forces (if it comes to that). If they attack an Article 5 country then shit will hit the fan Desert Storm style.

Things can of course change, but thus far it seems they are having trouble overwhelming a country with about a $4 billion defense budget. That should be a steamroller operation for big Russia. Yes, the occupation might entail an insurgency, but it shouldn't be difficult to take out Ukraine's conventional forces, yet thus far they have not achieved air superiority or taken out Ukraine's command-and-control, at least from what I have read. If they really are this bad, then even if/when they do manage to overwhelm Ukraine, I think they will get their butts royally handed to them by NATO forces should they attack a NATO nation. The generals in the Pentagon especially are going to take note of how actual Russia military capabilities fair when given a good fight.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

UK sources say Putin's losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armored vehicles.

Including this night about 3.200 troops, counting Candid full with men shoot down near Vasilkiv airfield from where Ukranian MiG-29 guys (Ghost among them) still operate. Thanks for support! This weekend will be tough but we'll go through

 

[Brett327]

Do you have a link? I would like to read it.

What would you imagine the classification of such an assessment might be?

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Brett, all our mutual antipathy aside - what do you think about nuke threshold for now?

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

This is one of two Calibers aimed at Zhulyany Intl Airport, in Kyiv. First hit airport's tower, second one came into this building. Smart-fucking-weapon.

 

[Random8145]

What would you imagine the classification of such an assessment might be?

Oh, I see. Just curious, have you been able to read it, or just know of it from someone who has?