Europe under extreme duress

[Max the Mad Russian]

Given my experience in Iraq I’d rather have 25 armed drones capable of loitering (so they could strike sniper positions) than a battalion of tanks.

Russian counterpart of Reaper or Bayraktar, called Orion, is in infancy and I think doomed - forbidden supply of electronics and optics makes impossible even R&D let alone production in notable numbers.

 

[Flash]

At this point two weeks into the war I am beginning to wonder if the Russians can run large-scale military ops at all and not just large-scale air ops. The Russians/Soviets demonstrated several times post-WWII that they could conduct large-scale military ops from Hungary in '56, Czechoslovakia in '68 and Afghanistan in '79. Whatever the eventual outcome those invasions were well planned and executed, achieving their objectives quickly and in a decisive manner even in the face of resistance, notably in Hungary. Today? They can't even do the basics done at times from what I've seen.

Almost every smart commentary I've seen on the war has said that Putin has lost already in some way or another, if not on the battlefield then geopolitical power around the world. After coming across to some as a smart guy who played his somewhat limited cards so well for over 20 years he is looking like an utter fool who has made a possibly fatal blunder.

Which brings up another point that several things I have read and watched have pointed out, when Russia loses a war upheaval has almost always followed in the last 200 years from Crimea and the Russo-Japanese War to World War I. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out in the end, because I really don't see a 'good' ending for the Russians or Putin right now.

Unfortunately the bad news is that almost everyone, from commentators to the US government, agree that Putin will likely double down and try harder to win with increasing brutality. That becomes more evident every day this war grinds on.

 

[jmcquate]

Just a personnel theory. I think the virtually overnight collapse of the Soviet military in 1990, severed any continuity in institutional knowledge with in the reconstituted Russian military. Modern equipment with no combat proven doctrine.

 

[taxi1]

Unfortunately the bad news is that almost everyone, from commentators to the US government, agree that Putin will likely double down and try harder to win with increasing brutality. That becomes more evident every day this war grinds on.

This worries me a lot. Why wouldn't he use a tactical nuke or chemical weapons? Where's the upside/downside trade for him?

I think he'd rather rule over a shattered world than lose in a whole one.

This is about a lot more than Ukraine.

 

[Griz882]

This worries me a lot. Why wouldn't he use a tactical nuke or chemical weapons? Where's the upside/downside trade for him?

I think he'd rather rule over a shattered world than lose in a whole one.

This is about a lot more than Ukraine.

This…exactly this. The only hope is that his minions won’t follow that particular order.

 

[jmcquate]

The only hope is that his minions won’t follow that particular order.

It's happened before (sort of).

 

[Hotdogs]

Just a personnel theory. I think the virtually overnight collapse of the Soviet military in 1990, severed any continuity in institutional knowledge with in the reconstituted Russian military. Modern equipment with no combat proven doctrine.

Probably true to some extent, but in that context - OIF in 2003 should’ve been a resounding success for the American military after learning the lessons of the Gulf War. Impressive none the less to the outside world - it was still a huge exploratory learning session for the joint force during the invasion. The American military establishment was subsequently caught off guard by the massive insurgency that followed in 2004.

 

[HSMPBR]

Probably true to some extent, but in that context - OIF in 2003 should’ve been a resounding success for the American military after learning the lessons of the Gulf War. Impressive none the less to the outside world - it was still a huge exploratory learning session for the joint force during the invasion. The American military establishment was subsequently caught off guard by the massive insurgency that followed in 2004.

You could argue, like RAND does, that the speed and ease with which the US Coalition forces toppled Saddam was too successful and it created a vacuum for that insurgency to fill.

 

[Randy Daytona]

One possible outcome is a bifurcation of the world as China, Russia, and others want to insulate themselves from the dollar as a reserve currency and the ability of western sanctions to disrupt their economies.

Good article from Foreign Affairs.

The Anti-Dollar Axis

Russia and China’s plans to evade U.S. economic power.

www.foreignaffairs.com

The Anti-Dollar Axis​

Russia and China’s Plans to Evade U.S. Economic Power​

By Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Mihaela Papa​

March 7, 2022

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Russia and China’s Plans to Evade U.S. Economic Power

Having US$ as a currency of government accounting, they just cannot imagine how hard this task is.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Today? They can't even do the basics done at times from what I've seen.

It seems, as one Russian media anchor stated, that military leadership in Russia follow the general rule of Russian politics: best decision is the fast decision. If so, they simply abandoned the planning process at all, thinking the overall armed forces are in alert status constantly. Typical logic of politician who got used to work with SOF. But big military machine isn't SOF, and cannot be it as such. Knowing neither history nor his own society Putin made huge and (probably most important) toxic mistake as a leader, first of all. No way to fix it, obviously.

 

[Random8145]

If Putin starts using tactical nukes and/or chemical weapons, then IMO the United States/NATO is going to have to lay down the law in some way and make him stop, because otherwise it shows too much fear to Putin and to our enemies that we will even let him get away with mass scale slaughter so long as it isn't a NATO country. Which then means he could attack a NATO country or try to annex part of one and just say, "Stop me and I nuke you." You can't live in constant fear like that. The Chinese, Iranians, and North Koreans are most definitely watching and will take note, so the West must stand strong and firm and be ready to fight if it comes to it. I do not mean that out of any gung-ho war attitude, I mean that out of the concern that otherwise, not only would we be allowing mass slaughter to occur, but we'd also be giving carte blanche for China, Iran, and NK to start behaving with the same tactics. It is one thing to attack a nation, it is another thing to start using nukes and chemical weapons.

I do not think the West should say anything right now about this; if Putin hasn't said anything about such weapons, then we should keep quiet so as not to provoke him. But if Putin himself starts saying he may use them, I think the West should immediately law down the law and say basically that if he escalates to that level, he will be stopped. You cannot have someone lobbing nukes and chemical weapons with no stopping. Showing such fear and leniency, IMO, is what can start a domino of events that leads to a full-on war that is much larger than anyone imagined.

 

[Random8145]

At this point two weeks into the war I am beginning to wonder if the Russians can run large-scale military ops at all and not just large-scale air ops. The Russians/Soviets demonstrated several times post-WWII that they could conduct large-scale military ops from Hungary in '56, Czechoslovakia in '68 and Afghanistan in '79. Whatever the eventual outcome those invasions were well planned and executed, achieving their objectives quickly and in a decisive manner even in the face of resistance, notably in Hungary. Today? They can't even do the basics done at times from what I've seen.

Almost every smart commentary I've seen on the war has said that Putin has lost already in some way or another, if not on the battlefield then geopolitical power around the world. After coming across to some as a smart guy who played his somewhat limited cards so well for over 20 years he is looking like an utter fool who has made a possibly fatal blunder.

I believe Putin has been politically intelligent, but political intelligence != military intelligence. IMO, a major difference between modern Russia and the Soviet Union was that the Soviet Union was not a straight dictatorship with one guy with absolute power in charge. It was authoritarian, but the General Secretary wasn't a straight dictator. That was ended after Stalin. Militaries of absolute dictators tend to have lots of outright lackeys, people put into power for reasons of loyalty and not merit. Whereas the Soviet military, while still having a load of corruption, probably had more meritocracy in it than the military of a straight dictator.

I have read that the current Russian military is not structured very well for power projection. They can drive or fly into a neighboring country and pretty much take over so long as there isn't much resistance, but if they encounter serious resistance (such as very patriotic citizens with training and weapons supplied by the U.S.), they do not have the training or the logistics to continue to operate. Their military is much more optimized for defensive warfare than power projection. They use the very extensive Russian railroad system to move forces and military vehicles around. This would allow them to move forces around very quickly in an invasion and their forces would operate with short supply lines. But their rail network doesn't extend beyond Russia, so once it stops, they need to switch to trucks. And apparently their force structure doesn't call for huge numbers of trucks.

Here is the article: Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look At Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli

So I guess instead of what everyone thought was the Big Bad Russian Military, it's actually the Bad Big Russian Military (so far)

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

I have read that the current Russian military is not structured very well for power projection

And never was. It is classical tellurocracy that had never had and still has no instruments of military power projection, just military power as such (and nuke deterrence, but in case of Russia it has no element of projection) and whose military doctrines were always centered around land decisive battle. Accordingly, it has no potential to withstand so-called "decisive siege", which hits civilians harder than militaries and so brings about economical collapse shutting the military activity down. That is definitely what US made for Japan in 1944-45 and NATO makes for Russia now, albeit by different proportion of approaches. Note that this decisive siege as method does not work well against land-locked enemies, it takes more time. But eventually it will bring fruits. The problem is Ukraine has no time to wait. And I'm afraid Finland too - if you won't stop the bear there, who will stop it here, still outside of the NATO realm? For that crazy bear there's no difference between neighbours. Find the "nazi" in Finland is even easier.

 

[Gatordev]

I do not think the West should say anything right now about this; if Putin hasn't said anything about such weapons, then we should keep quiet so as not to provoke him.

He has said things about such weapons, he just may not say the literal words. When he makes statements to the media about how "the West is...waging the equivalent of a war on Russia, and there will be consequences," that's a nuclear threat. Putin knows the only thing keeping NATO forces from interfering directly (ie, a No-Fly Zone) is that Russia is a nuclear power, and he's using that card continuously.

BT

I wonder if Putin's contingency is to use the various sanctions as a way to turn Russia back into a more "Soviet" society. The media is making Russia the victim in this, and the populace is buying it. Everyone is "attacking" Russia and it could be a great way for Putin to rally his people in an "Us vs Them" kind of way. "The Russian citizens will need to make sacrifices as the Imperialist West continues to attack our way of life through sanctions."

I'm not arguing that's a sustainable plan, but it's a decent way to pivot from the disastrous invasion so far.