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Europe under extreme duress

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
So, do I dig out Coyle’s “Team Yankee” or Hackett’s “Third World War” for tonight’s read?

No doubt, Hackett. His novel would have made a phenomenal mini-series like the networks used to do back in the 70’s and 80’s.

With everything going on, and after watching Niall Ferguson take apart Ian Bremmer and Francis Fukuyama, I pulled this out of my library and have started rereading for the first time in awhile.


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Notanaviator

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Best open source analysis I've seen so far.
It’s behind a modest membership pay wall, but the range of regular podcasts by War on the Rocks, particularly Warcast (more tactical/military focus) and Net Assessment (more geopolitical), have been typically very good. Last couple weeks they’ve put out some good material in a timely manner. Pretty level headed and thoughtful.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
It has been a united response by the West over Russia - I have doubts that Europe (for that matter, US corporations) will be united when there is a similar crisis in the Pacific over Taiwan.
Yes, was thinking that myself, especially about the corporations. It is easy for corporations to come out against Russia as Russia isn't a huge market for them, but to come out against China and stop doing business with them if/when they attack Taiwan, that will take some fortitude.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
An Israeli friend of mine thinks that all this in Ukraine is Chinese experiment to evaluate international response to a territorial seizure in XXI century.
Oh yes, I certainly think the Chinese are observing closely the Western response. But I think it will be a different with Taiwan due to different dynamics (Europe not directly threatened by Chinese takeover of Taiwan, money at stake with China's economy, etc...)
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Anyone think there are some eerie similarities to WWI and WWII with this? Like Russia invades Ukraine, let's say they fail and have to pull out, the West then punishes the crap out of Russia with the most harsh sanctions economically, and then over the following twenty years, a new, much more nationalist political party comes to power in Russia and starts WWIII around 2040.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Attached is an interesting report from the Brits about Russia’s poor use of air power.

 

Max the Mad Russian

Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Those eight missiles hit Vinnitsa airport - X-101s Tu-95MS Bear from Engels airbase full load, from over Black Sea. Sad AiM-54 is out of business - F-14 over Bulgaria may hit that Bear with no any proof and just rumors.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Best open source analysis I've seen so far.
Attached is an interesting report from the Brits about Russia’s poor use of air power.


I've seen several videos featuring that Russian air analyst from RUSI, smart guy who is worth listening too.

Watched this video from CSIS, a bit out of date now but still good if you have the time:

 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
The Ukrainian government is now promising Russian deserters 5 million rubles (approximately US $47,000), which is 450 times more than what the Kremlin pays the families of soldiers killed in action. Law professor Ilya Somin, economist Timur Kuran and others have suggested NATO and the EU match that and add an offer of asylum for surrendering Russian soldiers and their families ( one wonders if they could escape Russia after their soldier family member publicly surrenders in protest ). Seems pretty cost effective to me.
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
As you allude, @wink , most of those guys are going to be worried about reprisals against their families back in Russia if they desert. It's a worthwhile offer, but only for the ones that a.) don't care what happens back in Russia, and b.) Don't believe in the fight against Ukraine. It's worth offering, but I don't think it's going to move the needle a whole lot on the full-scale war. I think a lot of those troops are indoctrinated into Putin's bullshit, or just in too much fear to surrender to the enemy.
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
I've seen several videos featuring that Russian air analyst from RUSI, smart guy who is worth listening too.

Watched this video from CSIS, a bit out of date now but still good if you have the time:

Wow, didn't notice that Griz and I had the same Brit. As for CSIS, I was in a brief by them at work about a week before this all happened. Their open source intel was impressive.
 
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