Europe under extreme duress

[Max the Mad Russian]

it's not the exact same thing as attacking the historical Russian homeland

Irony is that there's no historically Russian homeland, because there isn't a nation that is Russians and not just called Russians. Those called Russians are essentially deeply rooted in Mongol Empire times. At least they behave just like that. Strangely enough this is not evident from beyond old good lake of Atlantic.
That is not pathetics, far from it. There is no underlying idea here except of Horde. Not a single one except this. And, amazingly, never had been from XIV century. And some cultural brilliance like Leo Tolstoy or alike are just like kinda chips of old Chinese culture floating on a swells of Horde.

 

[Griz882]

Kaliningrad Is a bone that would stick in the craw of both sides. In simple, conventional, military terms it would be quite easy to snip it off in the first stages of any war. But…that would automatically raise the number of required troops for NATO considerably. The problem for Russia is that they can use the BTG/insurgent model a’ La’ Dombas, but the supply routes for the west are far easier and much shorter meaning that Putin’s “separatists” would be easy to defeat along very narrow flanks. To secure his hybrid war Putin would need to secure his left flank where Poland cuts Kaliningrad off from Russia. That piece, the Suwalki corridor, is surely marked on every ground commander’s map and I am willing to bet the 82nd Airborne planning staff have visited it several times. Moreover, now that NATO is stationing forces on a rotating basis in the Baltic states it raises the risk for Putin substantially of triggering an article 5 response.

I imagine all the Baltics saber rattling is just that, an attempt to pull NATOs eye away from Ukraine especially now that war crimes talk has started.

 

[taxi1]

Japan ought to take advantage of all the attention to the West and start rumblings about getting those Kuril Islands back.

Nobody actually likes Russia. None of their neighbors. They should all take advantage of what's going on to advance their interests against the Russians.

 

[Griz882]

Japan ought to take advantage of all the attention to the West and start rumblings about getting those Kuril Islands back.

Nobody actually likes Russia. None of their neighbors. They should all take advantage of what's going on to advance their interests against the Russians.

Oh…so you’re THAT guy.

Just kidding, but your position combined with what’s going on now would make for a great novel.

 

[DanMa1156]

Japan ought to take advantage of all the attention to the West and start rumblings about getting those Kuril Islands back.

Nobody actually likes Russia. None of their neighbors. They should all take advantage of what's going on to advance their interests against the Russians.

Have they not? I could have sworn I read something to the effect they had, but have garbage internet now so I can't provide it.

 

[wink]

I have enjoyed the speculation and debate regarding Russia's next move and going nuclear. But I have run out of popcorn, so putting down the empty bucket, I have hands to type with.

We all know Russian is getting beat up a good bit. Seems to me that some of the timelines I read about here are too short to allow the Russians to purge the military of scapegoats, promote Putin sycophants, refit, and retrain. To then take on any NATO country would seem suicidal when there may be other less risky moves that would make for incremental advancement of a new Russian Empire. Why not Moldova? Russia does not share a direct border, though they may if Ukraine cedes some of the southeast in a peace bid. Former state of the USSR, Moldova even has their own disputed territory in Transnistria. That makes Moldova suited to the Russian playbook. Poor, small marginal military, no NATO or EU membership, a grape for the picking. Even the Russian military should be able to take it given 30 days ?. Sure, Moldova is a member of the Russian dominated Commonwealth of Independent States, but so was Ukraine and that didn't stop Russia from fomenting trouble in the east and taking Crimea. I have read a lot of compelling arguments in these pages. Learned a good bit too. But I think we are stuck on the crown jewel of Russia's possible courses of action. No matter whether it goes nuclear or not, the cost would be catastrophic because of the Article 5 trigger. They have other options to rebuild the empire and bring home a military victory for the propagandists.

 

[Griz882]

@wink I was thinking Putin might be able to take Prangli Island…much more might prove too much. I like your Moldova theory but I think the logistic would be nearly impossible for an army that couldn’t get tank fuel a few hundred kilometers down a relatively solid road.

 

[Griz882]

Interesting read here…

Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin

Philip Breedlove says the West is so concerned about the possibility of nuclear conflict with Russia that "we have allowed ourselves to be fully deterred." He also tells RFE/RL that the West likely has no possible "off-ramp" to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

They have other options to rebuild the empire and bring home a military victory for the propagandists.

Doubts are huge. First, to restore an empire Russia has to be strong, but it's weak, and international sanctions are making it weaker every single day. Second, the only open way to rebuild an empire for them is territorial seizure and neither economy progress nor - most important - cultural model which is attarctable enough for a people on those territories to buy instead of striking back.

Propaganda... Look, the word "condom" in Russian plain sounds as "gandon". So "propagandist" is often offencively called "propagandon". So what the Putin's propa-condoms may drew from the "victories" on Ukranian soil to May 9th, the main day of Soviet and still Russian history to celebrate? Killed children and raped women?

 

[DanMa1156]

Japan ought to take advantage of all the attention to the West and start rumblings about getting those Kuril Islands back.

Nobody actually likes Russia. None of their neighbors. They should all take advantage of what's going on to advance their interests against the Russians.

Have they not? I could have sworn I read something to the effect they had, but have garbage internet now so I can't provide it.

 

[taxi1]

What’s going on in the France election is interesting. Looks to be a close run thing between Macron and pro-Putin Le Pen.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

What’s going on in the France election is interesting

Money. Putin was corrupting EU for decades. Money. The root of all evil today © Roger Waters

 

[Randy Daytona]

What’s going on in the France election is interesting. Looks to be a close run thing between Macron and pro-Putin Le Pen.

View attachment 34828

Zemmour emerged on the hard right, moderating the image of Le Pen. Zemmour seems to have fallen into disfavor with those voters gravitating back to Le Pen.

Add in the general dislike of Macron and it boils down to whether the left will hold their nose and vote for Macron again or sit out the election, in which case the election becomes a tossup.

Late edit: Good article from The Economist. (it has a whole section on The French election of which the first round is tomorrow.) Polling is showing Macron over Le Pen 53-47 but Le Pen is surging.

Why Macron matters

France’s president presents a cautionary tale for centrists everywhere

www.economist.com

Late, late edit. Ian Bremmer is showing 51-49 Macron over Le Pen with the younger voters in favor of Le Pen while older voters favor Macron.

latest polling, france
macron 51 le pen 49
age 18-24 - macron 44, le pen 56 (!)
age 25-34 - macron 47, le pen 53
age 35-44 - macron 47, le pen 53
age 45-54 - macron 49, le pen 51
age 55+ - macron 55, le pen 45

 

[Griz882]

Zemmour emerged on the hard right, moderating the image of Le Pen. Zemmour seems to have fallen into disfavor with those voters gravitating back to Le Pen.

Add in the general dislike of Macron and it boils down to whether the left will hold their nose and vote for Macron again or sit out the election, in which case the election becomes a tossup.

Le Pen has backed away from Putin a bit but remains closely attached to Russia oil and wouldn’t follow any sanctions on the one thing keeping fuel prices manageable (for France) but keeping Russia in the economic game. I think someone lease noted earlier that the ruble is already back at it’s pre-war levels.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Interesting read here…

Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin

Philip Breedlove says the West is so concerned about the possibility of nuclear conflict with Russia that "we have allowed ourselves to be fully deterred." He also tells RFE/RL that the West likely has no possible "off-ramp" to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

Meanwhile in the Pacific….. Any thoughts?

WSJ News Exclusive | China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup Over Rising Fears of U.S. Conflict

China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking say.

www.wsj.com

Among recent developments, work has accelerated this year on more than 100 suspected missile silos in China’s remote western region that could be used to house nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S.