Europe under extreme duress

[taxi1]

I wouldn't ever think there's any remote chance of nuclear warfare coming out of this. This war is going to be purely economic, unless Putin is actually, genuinely insane. Poland, the Baltics, and Finland are all completely safe, and if there was to be a war it wouldn't constitute a total war.

Google on "War's Irrational Motivators", an essay in the Armed Forces Journal by Ralph Peters. Can't reach it from my work computer to link.

In short, don't be so sure. Humans have been doing "hold my beer" at scale for centuries.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

unless Putin is actually, genuinely insane.

Just this, namely this, the last drop to detonate inevitable.

 

[Mirage]

I don't get this concept of "too escalatory" regarding such weaponry. That just sounds like weakness to me. "Escalation" is one of the primary ways you get the enemy to stop. I could see not sending heavy weapons at the start of the invasion due to the belief that they could fall into the hands of the Russians, but not doing so based on the idea that it is too escalatory just seems silly to me. "Too escalatory" would be saying we'll send in the U.S. military to start shooting down Russian aircraft or even directly attack forces inside of Russia pre-emptively before they can cross the border into Ukraine. But otherwise, IMO, the enemy needs to think about not being too escalatory with the United States and NATO overall, not the other way around. Once you start worrying about being "too escalatory with them," you've got a losing mindset.

You're contradicting yourself here. You say it's silly to justify not doing something by saying it's too escalatory, then you justify not declaring a no fly zone by saying it would be too escalatory. So you agree there is a line where something is too escalatory, you just draw the line at shooting Russians instead of others more conservative approaches.

There is room for both sides to fear being too escalatory. Us fearing it doesn't mean we're giving them a pass to not worry about it.

The only way Russia even comes close to threatening US national interests is if we back the bear into a corner and make it fight for it's life. And that bear is Putin, not Russia, and he may be literally fighting for his life right now.

 

[Flash]

Le Pen has backed away from Putin a bit but remains closely attached to Russia oil and wouldn’t follow any sanctions on the one thing keeping fuel prices manageable (for France) but keeping Russia in the economic game. I think someone lease noted earlier that the ruble is already back at it’s pre-war levels.

She was so damn close to him there wasn't really an option to do anything but back away at this point, but not much is going to moderate a party founded in part on anti-Semitism and recently kept afloat because of a loan from Putin.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

And that bear is Putin, not Russia, and he may be literally fighting for his life right now.

Plus about 3M men in uniform, 500K of them involved in aggression to a degree. It will take decades to find a corner for each of them. Please believe me: Russian military personnel is culturally in XIX century, and the only means to deal with them is the force in itself. It is up to you how to employ the force but I'm afraid you have no choice as to whether use that force or not.

 

[Random8145]

You're contradicting yourself here. You say it's silly to justify not doing something by saying it's too escalatory, then you justify not declaring a no fly zone by saying it would be too escalatory. So you agree there is a line where something is too escalatory, you just draw the line at shooting Russians instead of others more conservative approaches.

There is room for both sides to fear being too escalatory. Us fearing it doesn't mean we're giving them a pass to not worry about it.

The only way Russia even comes close to threatening US national interests is if we back the bear into a corner and make it fight for it's life. And that bear is Putin, not Russia, and he may be literally fighting for his life right now.

Maybe I should have written my point better, but I mean it seems silly to me to consider acts such as sending some old jets to Ukraine as escalatory, as opposed to directly attacking Russian military. Fearing "escalation" over such an act, IMO, is giving the Russians a pass to not worry much because it shows too much fear and timidity.

 

[number9]

She was so damn close to him there wasn't really an option to do anything but back away at this point, but not much is going to moderate a party founded in part on anti-Semitism and recently kept afloat because of a loan from Putin.

I think Le Pen sucks, but do you have a source for the Putin loan?

 

[Hozer]

Maybe I should have written my point better, but I mean it seems silly to me to consider acts such as sending some old jets to Ukraine as escalatory, as opposed to directly attacking Russian military. Fearing "escalation" over such an act, IMO, is giving the Russians a pass to not worry much because it shows too much fear and timidity.

Or it could be the very rational concern that war may actually escalate beyond Ukraine.

Just an observation, but it seems at least some western euro leaders want to leave open a way out for Putin to save some face and possibly de-escalate the war, and eventually keep the war limited to the Donbas. That may be perceived as appeasement or timidity, but it seems perhaps some euro leaders believe if they can just run the Russian army out of conventional steam, let Putin consolidate and declare a limited victory and wind up the broader war, then all the better.

I don't agree with that strategy, but I don't know shit. And this war has certainly taken a toll on the Russian conventional army that will take a long time to recover.

 

[Mirage]

Plus about 3M men in uniform, 500K of them involved in aggression to a degree. It will take decades to find a corner for each of them. Please believe me: Russian military personnel is culturally in XIX century, and the only means to deal with them is the force in itself. It is up to you how to employ the force but I'm afraid you have no choice as to whether use that force or not.

The thing is, we don't have to use force. This doesn't have to involve America. It's a war between Russia and Ukraine. YOU have to use force. This has very little to do with America. Does Canada have to use force? How about Brazil? Australia? Why must American soldiers and treasure be spent every time some asshole wants to pick a fight with anyone else?

Should we help out when and where we can? Sure. But dont act like we have some duty or responsibility to protect Ukraine from it's neighbor. Europe has been willingly making Russia stronger for years while not paying for its own defense, and now it's looking for help from US tax payers and soldiers once again for an explicitly European crisis.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

The thing is, we don't have to use force

Yes you probably don't have to. For now.


You just cannot hear what Russian military say privately, revealed in leaks to social media. "Instead of hitting Ukraine we'd better nuke Washington". 36-years old O-5 to his subordinates. If you don't care, it is your right. Within a year the same will be said by some flag officer, within two years - by RU DoD. Wait and see.

Just don't say then "why you didn't warn us in time?"

 

[Flash]

I think Le Pen sucks, but do you have a source for the Putin loan?

Yup. As the article lays out the bank later went under and was taken over by the state but the loan bounced around a bit during the collapse of the bank, not sure where it ended up in the end. To answer the obvious question yes, a loan from a 'private' Russian bank to a foreign political party had to be approved by the government which = Putin.

She can't break the habit either, taking out a personal loan from a Hungarian bank linked to Prime Minister Orban who happens to be one of Putin's biggest fans in Europe. Birds of a feather...

 

[number9]

Yup. As the article lays out the bank later went under and was taken over by the state but the loan bounced around a bit during the collapse of the bank, not sure where it ended up in the end. To answer the obvious question yes, a loan from a 'private' Russian bank to a foreign political party had to be approved by the government which = Putin.

She can't break the habit either, taking out a personal loan from a Hungarian bank linked to Prime Minister Orban who happens to be one of Putin's biggest fans in Europe. Birds of a feather...

Thank you! I'll take a read. In my former life I spent a lot of time in Francophone West Africa, which meant a decent amount of time in France to support it. I have a lot of love for the French... but Le Pen sucks balls.

 

[taxi1]

Should we help out when and where we can? Sure. But dont act like we have some duty or responsibility to protect Ukraine from it's neighbor.

Yep, we should definitely act in our own interest, just need to make sure we have the expanded view of what that is.

Just an observation, but it seems at least some western euro leaders want to leave open a way out for Putin

He needs to save face in order for this to end. Give him some territory.

But then tolerate no more meddling in elections, social media, etc., etc. Not our friends, don't act like they are. Treat them like pariahs. Let Russia wither away demographically. The long game.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Yep, we should definitely act in our own interest

Well, that is big deal to tell tactical interest from strategic one, especially when there's nobody around to consult with. Paradoxally the RU position is more grounded since there's no strategic interest there because its dying anyway.

 

[Randy Daytona]

I wouldn't ever think there's any remote chance of nuclear warfare coming out of this. This war is going to be purely economic, unless Putin is actually, genuinely insane. Poland, the Baltics, and Finland are all completely safe, and if there was to be a war it wouldn't constitute a total war.

There are not a lot of historical precedents of Poland and the Baltics being completely safe. That part of Europe is one of the most contested, and bloody, parts on the planet.

On a separate subject, one of the people I pay particular attention to is Michael Pettis who is a Finance Professor at Peking University. He has an interesting article out on the future of the dollar.

Changing the Top Global Currency Means Changing the Patterns of Global Trade​

Changing the Top Global Currency Means Changing the Patterns of Global Trade

carnegieendowment.org