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Europe under extreme duress

Flash

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
MIDNJAC said:
It seems as if people are getting pretty wrapped around the axle about what might constitute a "threat to the very existence of the state" in USSR Vlad's little brain. Is it now a hostile act committed by Ukraine using western hardware in annexed territory? Is it a russian defeat in Crimea? Is it social unrest in Moscow that threatens the leadership, due to losses in Ukraine? While I don't personally think that his calculus has changed enough to include such niche factors, I can see how there is some ambiguity with that whole phrase, given the current situation. But that is also dependent on believing some really optimistic western projections.....such as the idea that there might be a domestic uprising, or that this will result in something more than a stalemate.
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That's the $64,000 question I think no one knows except the man himself. I think that is why western allies have been circumspect about what we have supplied to the Ukrainians so far, providing them with plenty of 'defensive' weapons but not many 'offensive' weapons that could strike the (actual) Russian homeland. I think he is trying to intimidate folks buy moving the supposed Russian 'red lines' but no one seems to be buying it yet.
 
SynixMan

SynixMan

Mobilizer Extraordinaire
pilot
Contributor
Flash said:
That's the $64,000 question I think no one knows except the man himself. I think that is why western allies have been circumspect about what we have supplied to the Ukrainians so far, providing them with plenty of 'defensive' weapons but not many 'offensive' weapons that could strike the (actual) Russian homeland. I think he is trying to intimidate folks buy moving the supposed Russian 'red lines' but no one seems to be buying it yet.
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With HIMARS launchers already in play, the discussion seems to be entirely about ATACMS that the administration seems leery to provide. That being said, Tube Artillery and HIMARS were considered escalatory back in March/April and eventually came and made a difference. I'm surprised we've held back as much as we have, but I know nothing that's not in the news. I was as shocked as most to see we had adapted HARMs to their jets for airborne SEAD, so there's plenty of "disruptive, innovative, agile" work happening without much fanfare in DoD.

Quite a contrast to attriting one of the largest peer competitors in battle without endangering our troops vs the all in commitment we'd need to make in the Middle East to prop up the increasingly worthless GCC nations.
 
Flash

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
SynixMan said:
With HIMARS launchers already in play, the discussion seems to be entirely about ATACMS that the administration seems leery to provide. That being said, Tube Artillery and HIMARS were considered escalatory back in March/April and eventually came and made a difference. I'm surprised we've held back as much as we have, but I know nothing that's not in the news. I was as shocked as most to see we had adapted HARMs to their jets for airborne SEAD, so there's plenty of "disruptive, innovative, agile" work happening without much fanfare in DoD.
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None of those weapons have a very long reach though and largely only replace or supplement Ukraine’s previously existing inventory, except HARMs and those don’t have that far a reach. It will be the same with the SAM systems on their way to Ukraine now.


SynixMan said:
Quite a contrast to attriting one of the largest peer competitors in battle without endangering our troops vs the all in commitment we'd need to make in the Middle East to prop up the increasingly worthless GCC nations.
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While not the case for all of them that is an unfortunate reality with most of them it seems now.
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
R

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
jmcquate said:
"I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon. I didn't realize how much serious damage the previous administration did to our foreign policy."
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Flash said:
That wasn't idle partisan political talk, and he isn't wrong either.
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What damage, regarding Russia, did the previous administration do to our foreign policy?
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
sevenhelmet said:
Like what? Space lasers? Antimatter bombs?

Not sure what breaks this conflict. Putin being replaced isn't very likely to result in more reasonable Russian leadership.
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Is it so hard to believe that Russia can't just be driven out of Ukraine altogether? We are less than a year in and already the Russians are losing. Wars can take a few years at least.
 
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