Pags said:
The Russian jets will never be a threat due to economics. The Russian government is not in the position to fund any superplane program. Russian jets are traditionally exported to 3rd world nations, and no Third world nation is going to be able to order enough of them to make it worthwhile to build the superplanes. So, we'll probably never see the day when squadrons of combat ready Su-37s and MiG 1.44s facing off against F-22s.
Wrong.
Foreign exports by the Former Soviet Union are a very real problem. Is the FSU going to be able to afford mass-production of any new Sukhoi variants? Certainly not in the short term, but quite possibly (and this is debatable) in the distant future.
The real problem however is not the FSU. Secretary Rumsfeldt touched on this shortly before 9/11. The future threat to the U.S is China (and I’m speaking specifically to an air threat even if Rumsfeldt was referring to an overall threat).
China is in the midst of the largest weapons platform upgrade in the history of their country. They are looking to be on par with western technology in 10-15 years (both size and technology).
China is the only country to purchase the productions rights to the SU-27 and follow on variants. Yup, that means they produce them indigenously and with their rather tenacious work ethic, you can bet they can mass produce them.
Is the Fulcrum a threat to be concerned about? Most certainly. It’s got tremendous legs, outrageous speed, and a pretty lethal arsenal of air-to-air weapons. Will it be a threat to the FA-22? To dismiss the Fulcrum’s current and future capabilities would be nothing less than idiotic, and I don’t think too many of you would debate that. Yes, western technology is far superior to the FSU and the Raptor is far superior to the Fulcrum.
However, the U.S. cannot currently afford to mass-produce the Raptor. At this point it is important that I define “mass-production” and for our purposes I am defining mass production in one of two ways. One – the ability to replace the current inventory of F-15’s one for one (F-16’s are not included here) with Raptors. Or, two - the ability to produce Raptors in the amount that the Chinese can produce Fulcrums. Neither of which the U.S. can do/afford.
Now I know the idea of the Raptor is one in which a single raptor can engage multiple targets/threats, therefore decreasing the number of U.S. assets needed to fight a war. But, this begs the questions – how many Raptors are needed in the U.S. inventory?
If the bubble goes up on WWIII will replacing the current inventory of F-15’s with a much smaller inventory of FA-22’s be enough?
How much is enough? 20% less, 40%?
There are a lot of guys out there with fifty-pound heads that will tell you that one Raptor can do the work the work of ten F-15’s. Maybe, but I don’t think so.
Nikita Khrushchev said it best when he said “Sometimes quantity has a quality all it’s own”.
Imagine if you will the ability of a country to launch wave after wave of something as simple as MiG-21’s at a section or division of Raptors (2 ship and 4 ship for you Air Force guys). Maybe they’re waves of 10 to 20 aircraft at a time. They could in fact have the ability to soak up our missiles and still keep coming and more importantly, get into the WVR arena. Do they have the bodies to soak up these losses? Absolutely, China’s got us (and everyone else) beat on the sheer size of their army. Do they have the ability to absorb the loss of assets? Currently speaking, it’s quite possible. MiG-21’s are very affordable. Now let’s move forward 10-20 years. Is the threat worse? You bet! Even MiG-21’s with AA-11’s could wreak havoc, and resting on our FA-22 laurels is not the answer.
This is the same war fighting doctrine that the Soviets used during the Cold War. Generally speaking, they played the size card and we played the technology card (again, I’m speaking specifically to air to air warfare).
Air to air warfare is multifaceted and very complex. Technology will certainly change the face of air-to-air tactics. With the advent of AIM-9X and follow on Pythons and Archers, the WVR arena is going to be a very scary place and it won’t matter if your opponent is in a MiG-15 or an SU-35.
I don’t pretend to have all the answers. But, I do know this; The proliferation of FSU technology is a very real threat.
I’ve rambled on long enough.
Stinky out