F22's

[Flash]

China is the only country to purchase the productions rights to the SU-27 and follow on variants. Yup, that means they produce them indigenously and with their rather tenacious work ethic, you can bet they can mass produce them.

Actually, the first few that they assembled (not produced, but just put together kits the Russians sent them) were so poorly put together the Russians tore them apart and put them together themselves. They have gotten better but their aircraft industry is notorious for producing an extremely poor product.

Another thing is their pilot training. It just sucks. They are doing elementary stuff when we are doing doctorate level work. I can say from personal experience they are poor pilots. Maybe in 30 or 50 years they will be a threat but not anytime soon.

 

[Pags]

I agree that FSU exports should not be outright ignored, but I highly doubt that even a country with the economic potential of China could afford large-scale numbers of super-jets. I find the idea of waves of 4th gen fighters much easier to believe. I would tend to thinkthat even the world's most badass fighter pilots would be in trouble fighting 10+ enemies. Technology doesn't always win wars.

However, in the timeline we're considering, UCAVs will start to become a factor for an enemy facing the US. How good these UCAVs will be remains to be seen, but I'm sure in 10yrs some pretty startling advances will be made to advance them from Predators to something with the potential for a bit more.

 

[stinky]

Another thing is their pilot training. It just sucks. They are doing elementary stuff when we are doing doctorate level work. I can say from personal experience they are poor pilots. Maybe in 30 or 50 years they will be a threat but not anytime soon.

Of course they’re not very good (both their ability to produce and to fly) but please don’t under estimate their potential. I think you missed the point of my response.

You can put a bunch of third world gomers in a MiG-21 with only the most rudimentary flying ability and an AA-11 with a helmet mounted site, maybe add a little EA to the equation and you’ve got yourself an opponent. Now I say a bunch because they’d have to send up massive numbers (with most likely massive losses) in order to get one or two through to the WVR arena.

As it stands right now, that MiG-21 I mentioned with high off bore sight capability is and has been for some time without peer in the WVR arena (Israel excluded). Certainly the Navy at this moment could not compete with that threat and most of the Air Force either. Yea, the AIM-9X is a far superior weapon to the Archer, but until the Navy finishes testing, we’re still at a technology disadvantage. Yes, the Navy is carrying the weapon, but only on legacy Hornets and yes, the Navy is incorporating the Helmet Mounted Cuing System but only in Super Hornets. And when the Navy finally marries the two systems up, guess what? We’ve just reached slightly beyond parity with that MiG-21 I mentioned (in the WVR arena that is).

So now you’re probably thinking that if you get to a merge with anyone, you did something wrong. Not true. If you’re on a DCA mission you have to clean up that group. We would all like to think that the Pk of that weapon is going to be 1 to 1, but that is simply is not the case. From my experience, running down range on a guerilla (8 or more), it is impossible to determine a proper sort let alone kill. And with Strikers behind you or a Vul window to cover, that group has got to be cleaned up.

Now, fast forward 10 years. The PLA has pulled their head out of their ass (and they will) and now they’re doin’ a marginal job of puttin’ together SU-27’s, 35’s, etc. Where are we now?

Bottom line, FSU technology is a real threat and as fantastic as it is, the FA-22 is not our savior. We just can’t afford to buy enough.

Remember, it’s very healthy to question our war fighting ability. If we tell ourselves we’re the greatest all time, we’re gonna get lazy and soft. And just because some booger eater in air intelligence told you that the Chinese pilots suck, doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong.

 

[vegita1220]

There's also the fact that the FSU is constantly upgrading its Archers...

As far as I can tell, your point is that they have many many gomers...while we've downsized, and that regardless of the arena, when there are thousands of gomers, you really just don't have the ammo to deal with them all of them.
I agree(China's got hundreds of antiquated bombers-but those bombers carry antiship missiles w/huge warheads and a few hundred SSKs)...but I doubt they have the logistical infrastructure to project power: meaning our primary point of concern is when we attempt to project power in THEIR waters. Which of course we need to in order to be able to keep our promises to Taiwan.
I would venture to say that it's not likely they'd ever be able to take us on in full force...but I'd also say that they don't need to. If they could kill even a single CVN they can really make our leadership hesitate.

 

[kevin]

so the russians shouldnt get credit because they cant mass produce it? that makes sense. as mentioned, theyve got less money than anyone, yet they were able to come up with a phenomenal aircraft that another country can mass produce in time. another point im not quite getting....we have better technology than everybody else, and it's important that we have that advantage.....then why are we talking about pilot skill? seems to me if that's the case it should be a non-issue.

 

[stinky]

so the russians shouldnt get credit because they cant mass produce it? that makes sense. as mentioned, theyve got less money than anyone, yet they were able to come up with a phenomenal aircraft that another country can mass produce in time. another point im not quite getting....we have better technology than everybody else, and it's important that we have that advantage.....then why are we talking about pilot skill? seems to me if that's the case it should be a non-issue.

I don't even know where to begin with this one.

Study hard Kevin, study hard.

 

[kevin]

"The F-22, on the other hand, uses thrust vectoring seamlessly. It is fully integrated into the flight system and fully computer controlled. There are few things that you can do with multidimensional TV that can’t be done with vertical TV." .....like beat an f18 10 out of 10 times from both advantaged and disadvantaged engagements (X-31). by the way, the su37 has fully integrated tv as well, but which can also be controlled manually when chosen.

 

[stinky]

I agree(China's got hundreds of antiquated bombers-but those bombers carry antiship missiles w/huge warheads and a few hundred SSKs)...but I doubt they have the logistical infrastructure to project power: meaning our primary point of concern is when we attempt to project power in THEIR waters. Which of course we need to in order to be able to keep our promises to Taiwan.

Okay, I’ll try and make this quick.

My example is based on the “big one”, not just littoral warfare and protecting Taiwan but rather going to war with China. Troops involved – the whole nine yards. Possible? Certainly. Probable? Not likely giving the current state of affairs but then the FA-22 was not designed with the short sighted thinking of only using recent conflicts as models for it’s potential.

It was designed with the forethought of air supremacy over any theater. A theater in which OCA may not be an option and DCA is the norm.

Look, being in Navy TacAir for as long as I have, I believe strongly that we (Naval Air & Air Force) are superior to all others in both quality and quantity. I would just caution against the emphasis on technology as a force multiplier. It has the ability to bite you if underestimate the potential of a tremendously resourceful adversary.

Remember this: It’s not that we’re the world’s greatest air power; we just suck less than everyone else.

 

[kevin]

"I don't even know where to begin with this one.

Study hard Kevin, study hard."

perhaps you missed my point. it was that technology is never going to erase the need for skill, i guess unless you're flying a ucav. ok, now i'll get to that studying.

 

[nittany03]

If they could kill even a single CVN they can really make our leadership hesitate.

vegita, our inventory is designed to defend against just such a threat. Soviet bombers with ASMs are just the thing we built Tomcats and AEGIS ships to defend against. Toms are going away. AEGIS isn't. The first big battle in Red Storm Rising comes to mind. IMO, though, it doesn't matter what insignia you paint on the side. That would be suicide. Say a CVBG with 10 Tomcats (potentially 60 Phoenix missiles), and 36 Hornets of the regular or Super variety. Add to that two Ticonderogas and three Arleigh Burkes to get a grand total of over 800 VLS cells, all capable of carrying Standard missiles. It becomes a mathematical equation, with success dependent on the enemy's willingness to accept grievous casualties. I'd bank on a more asymmetric approach if I was a Chinese flag officer wanting to take out a CVN. Granted, I'm no SWO or F-14 pilot, just a bored A-pool Ensign playing armchair admiral.

 

[nittany03]

Wow. 4 messages while I'm writing my little thesis. Stinky, that last line is one to remember! I suppose I'll get to studying now too since I'm classing up soon. :graduate_

 

[stinky]

"I don't even know where to begin with this one.

Study hard Kevin, study hard."

perhaps you missed my point. it was that technology is never going to erase the need for skill, i guess unless you're flying a ucav. ok, now i'll get to that studying.

I did miss your point - sorry

 

[kmac]

Has anyone seen the JAG episode where a Marine General gets tried for disobeying orders in a wargame? He and his staff used civilian boats and planes to damage/destroy ships and take down aircraft. I know it's just a tv show, but it does show the resourcefulness and ingenuity in taking on a superior force. How do you think the Marines beat up on the Air Force in wargames? It's been mentioned before, but one aircraft vs another aircraft, or purely mathematical computations are not going to determine the outcome of battle.

Assuming the Chinese are willing to take heavy losses to damage/sink one of our CV's, do you think the Americans would just let that go? I would think that a response in force would be automatic. It wouldn't be the first time that we've taken heavy losses to come back and prevail.

... side question... has anyone seen ideas for using E2s as a platform to control UCAVs? I saw slides for a presentation on it (didn't see the presentation).

 

[phrogdriver]

The seed for the JAG episode was a real incident. A retired Marine general, I believe it was VanRiper, was given the job of leading the OpFor during an exercise. He did a bunch of things very outside the box, and allegedly outside the guidelines of the wargame. These led to his getting fired.

It's not as clear-cut a scenario as on TV. All wargames have constraints inherent to them. Some of you will remember the 7-day (maybe it's a day-and-a-half now) war at TBS. They didn't just put the platoons in the woods and say, "go kill the other plt." The fights were somewhat set up, lest the Lts just stumble around the woods for a week. At the same time, too much scripting kills the learning process.

 

[vegita1220]

Assuming the Chinese are willing to take heavy losses to damage/sink one of our CV's, do you think the Americans would just let that go? I would think that a response in force would be automatic. It wouldn't be the first time that we've taken heavy losses to come back and prevail.

... side question... has anyone seen ideas for using E2s as a platform to control UCAVs? I saw slides for a presentation on it (didn't see the presentation).

On that...it's not that I don't think we'd let it slide, it's that is undermines our ability to deal with multiple crises at once. If they have the ability to take down a CVN, I think that deploying a CVBG to that kind of region stops being power projection, and becomes more of a tripwire force.

I'd rather we were able to keep our lead to the point that we never have to take heavy casualties. Sure coming back from Pearl Harbor(I'm assuming that's the reference) was a heroic effort, but it also 3000+ US casualties even before we got to hit back.