It's not that the board numbers are fudged, it's that the numbers that get sold to the fleet look more promising than they actually are.
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FY-25 O4 Promotion Board
- Thread starter 2XFOS_Hopeful
- Start date
It's not that the board numbers are fudged, it's that the numbers that get sold to the fleet look more promising than they actually are.
I guess I'm narrowly focused on AD 0-3 to O-4 promotions. Maybe I'm blind to other scenarios, but I still don't understand how PERS is misrepresenting stats.
They add the AZ and BZ selectee numbers to the IZ selectees for the total number of selectees, so far good, but then use only the total number of IZ eligibles to come up with the percentage of those selected (I hope that makes sense). Like Gator says, it boosts the percentage by using fuzzy math, fooling 0% of the Navy folks but likely making things look better to others and themselves I suppose.
Ah, makes sense...honestly, in my experience BZ and AZ selects were unicorns, but that was just my perception.
It's enough to skew the numbers a bit, though probably not big enough to make sense for PERS to keep doing it thus adding to the frustration.
After having done 2 years in Quantico as a monitor (detailer), there was zero connection between us and the promotion branch of manpower. It was by design walled off.
I guess it's surprising that PERS would juice promotion stats like that. I mean the numbers are the numbers.
2XFOS_Hopeful
Member
It makes sense to not add in the below zone number since they look at 1000+ records and only select a handful but in reality their promotion rates are less because they don't account for AZ individuals. For 1310's there was 66 AZ individuals and only 15 were selected but the other 51 don't count as they divide by the IZ eligible individuals.
Navy doing stupid navy things. W/e, getting ISP and a free Masters out of it.
Navy doing stupid navy things. W/e, getting ISP and a free Masters out of it.
TYFYS
2XFOS_Hopeful
Member
You're welcome
You gotta really try to not get picked up as a 1310 these days. BZ
I hate coming to pers defense, but I think this is just an issue of a useful stat being improperly used. (Az sel + iz sel)/(Iz elig) just compares the size of the block of people who will promote in the fy to the size of the block of people who's date of rank meant that they should pin in the fy. I'm not a pers guy, but that actually does seem like a pretty useful ratio.
Once you get into really small sample sizes like o5 selres nfo females, I suspect you'll always get weird artifacts like 250%. If you only have two IZ eligible, it doesn't take a lot of az eligible to reduce the usefulness of the stat. Or it could be nefarious intent by pers to lie to the masses.
What number would you prefer pers publish?
Once you get into really small sample sizes like o5 selres nfo females, I suspect you'll always get weird artifacts like 250%. If you only have two IZ eligible, it doesn't take a lot of az eligible to reduce the usefulness of the stat. Or it could be nefarious intent by pers to lie to the masses.
What number would you prefer pers publish?
2XFOS_Hopeful
Member
That is correct. I've spent the last 4-5 years setting this up. Thank you!
2XFOS_Hopeful
Member
The correct numbers. (AZ Sel + IZ Sel + BZ Sel)/(AZ elig + IZ elig). You'll then see promotion isn't 94% rather is 87.77% for URL. Both should be included because those are the only zones that count against you and the convening order specifically states that AZ and IZ elig must have equal consideration regardless of zone (granted that is not the case; NFO had more BZ selects than total AZ elig and your chances diminish AZ unless you take those hard "get well" tours even though the detailer knows how the boards work).
PERS just sucks
Try not to overthink it.