Hard Power and Soft Power

[JTS11]

We just lost a 20-year conflict to people who bang goats for funsies and have no weapons of war beyond Ak-47s and home made IEDs.

Probably shouldn't talk too much shit about Russia's problems with a 1st world military.

Total non-comparable stuff.

Funny that you said what I said is talking shit though...please elucidate.

 

[Griz882]

Russia has committed something like 1 / 100th of its fighting aged males to the conflict.

As for munitions and armor - we have a lot to do with that. But supplying munitions for a country to stall an offensive is not the same as repelling an invasion in Eastern Europe after invoking NATO Article V while simultaneously fighting the PLAN in the Pacific. What frequently gets lost on people is that we partnered with Ukraine to prepare them for this defensive operation and build up a world-class military for 8 years before Russia's 2022 assault began. Then we embarked on a slow bleed strategy that the current administration wants no part of, and even if they did we forgot to consider that our defense-industrial base cannot support Ukraine's protracted war effort without assuming too much risk to defending Taiwan.

Are we doing the same thing with Poland and Lithuania? Does John Q. Public even care about Lithuania, or does the very name of the country create a mental connection with Russian culture and heritage? How about when mainstream media puts war footage of American soldiers dying in Eastern Europe on TV 24/7? Can Russia adequately regenerate in 2-3 years? Will we be able to put aside our incredible fear of nuclear escalation that has permeated our national strategy since 1950?

I have no doubt a US JTF can curb stomp a Russian division. War is more complex than that... the Germans learned that lesson the hard way in 1941.

I think we are kind of arguing past each other. I (mis)understood your comment on “disposable” meaning cannon fodder troops while keeping your best and brightest out of the fight.

That said, you are mistaken about their surplus military aged population. Russia has just under 150,000,000 people and fewer than 45,000,000 are military aged males. Of course, Ukraine has a mere 35,000,000 people total so the man-to-man comparison is off the scale…basically Russia can easily afford to bleed the Ukraine to death and lose significant numbers of soldiers. Still, the 1/100 number is off…some 700,000 Russians have been killed or wounded (no longer battlefield effective) meaning Russia has lost 2% of their military age population - not an easy number to make up in a nation already in population decline.

This isn’t 1941…Then Russia had nearly 180,000,000 people (most of them military aged) facing a Nazi “empire” that could count on fewer than 90,000,000 not considering the burden of a two front war and the coming avalanche of U.S. military aid (that frankly kept Russia alive). Today NATO can fall back on a combined population of some 390,000,000 and that doesn’t even count the roughly 330,000,000 in the U.S. So, war is, in fact, that simple and Russia is terrified because they can count. The only complex side here is nuclear weapons and the question of Russia would rather go out kicking, or screaming. As for the rest, I completely agree. The U.S. and Europe have, quite frankly, kept the Ukraine in this fight.

 

[JTS11]

We just lost a 20-year conflict to people who bang goats for funsies and have no weapons of war beyond Ak-47s and home made IEDs.

Probably shouldn't talk too much shit about Russia's problems with a 1st world military.

You continually are a contrarian just for the sake.

 

[Spekkio]

I think we are kind of arguing past each other. I (mis)understood your comment on “disposable” meaning cannon fodder troops while keeping your best and brightest out of the fight.

That said, you are mistaken about their surplus military aged population. Russia has just under 150,000,000 people and fewer than 45,000,000 are military aged males. Of course, Ukraine has a mere 35,000,000 people total so the man-to-man comparison is off the scale…basically Russia can easily afford to bleed the Ukraine to death and lose significant numbers of soldiers. Still, the 1/100 number is off…some 700,000 Russians have been killed or wounded (no longer battlefield effective) meaning Russia has lost 2% of their military age population - not an easy number to make up in a nation already in population decline.

This isn’t 1941…Then Russia had nearly 180,000,000 people (most of them military aged) facing a Nazi “empire” that could count on fewer than 90,000,000 not considering the burden of a two front war and the coming avalanche of U.S. military aid (that frankly kept Russia alive). Today NATO can fall back on a combined population of some 390,000,000 and that doesn’t even count the roughly 330,000,000 in the U.S. So, war is, in fact, that simple and Russia is terrified because they can count. The only complex side here is nuclear weapons and the question of Russia would rather go out kicking, or screaming. As for the rest, I completely agree. The U.S. and Europe have, quite frankly, kept the Ukraine in this fight.

Disposal means that the nation can use them at will without risk to its homeland national security. The U.S. makes broad use of disposal forces, which is what we used to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as maintain the Korean border and conduct various other ops around the world... because we take after the former British empire, which also made broad use of disposal forces to maintain its empire. The word "disposal force" has no inherent bearing on the tactics used or fighting skill of the units.

Casualty estimates in Ukraine vary wildly, so I'm not going to put too much stock into one source or another, and U.S. media is too stuck on the 'hahaha look at those silly Russians, what a fumbling bag of dicks' narrative while Russia just outright lies. So it's going to be a while until we get the real numbers. I think if the situation were as dire as you (and many media sources) are presenting it, Putin would be facing significantly more internal pressure than he is.

Russia is building up a force of 1.5 million on the border of the Baltics. That's the size of 10-15 U.S. divisions. We only have 10 divisions active, total.

Our brothers in green don't share your hubris about this situation.

 

[Spekkio]

Are you honestly saying that Afghanistan failed because we couldn’t handle the Taliban on military terms?

I'm illustrating an example that war is more complex than which nation can inflict more casualties on another.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Disposal means that the nation can use them at will without risk to its homeland national security. The U.S. makes broad use of disposal forces, which is what we used to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as maintain the Korean border and conduct various other ops around the world... because we take after the former British empire, which also made broad use of disposal forces to maintain its empire. The word "disposal force" has no inherent bearing on the tactics used or fighting skill of the units.

Casualty estimates in Ukraine vary wildly, so I'm not going to put too much stock into one source or another, and U.S. media is too stuck on the 'hahaha look at those silly Russians, what a fumbling bag of dicks' narrative while Russia just outright lies. So it's going to be a while until we get the real numbers.

Russia is building up a force of 1.5 million on the border of the Baltics. That's the size of 10-15 U.S. divisions. We only have 10 divisions active, total.

Our brothers in green don't share your hubris about this situation.

The Telegraph is running a series on the hollowing out of the British Armed Forces - its just a newspaper article but it doesn’t look good. (The Tories have held power for most of the last decade and a half.)

The British Army’s armoured division does not really exist​

Almost no big guns, rocket launchers without rockets, not enough tanks

The British Army’s armoured division does not really exist

Almost no big guns, rocket launchers without rockets, not enough tanks

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[JTS11]

I'm illustrating an example that war is more complex than which nation can inflict more casualties on another.

deep...thanks

did you complete a war college somewhere? Residence or distance?

I did mine distance.

 

[Hotdogs]

We just lost a 20-year conflict to people who bang goats for funsies and have no weapons of war beyond Ak-47s and home made IEDs.

Probably shouldn't talk too much shit about Russia's problems with a 1st world military.

“Losing” to the Taliban is duplicitous. We could’ve smashed that country for another 20 years, but the political will didn’t exist to keep punking dudes on motorbikes with hellfire anymore. Also don’t ever say that to an OEF combat vet in person, you’re running a risk of getting your jaw rearranged.

The problem with not talking shit about Russia’s “1st world military” problems (whatever that means) is that they couldn’t/cant even do basic stuff right. I’m not even talking about point end of the spear stuff. Logistics, medical, communications, fires, intelligence, and basic force-pro. So yeah, they’re fucking amateurs and deserved to be studied for time immemorial on how not to conduct a war.

 

[Spekkio]

“Losing” to the Taliban is duplicitous. We could’ve smashed that country for another 20 years, but the political will didn’t exist to keep punking dudes on motorbikes with hellfire anymore. Also don’t ever say that to an OEF combat vet in person, you’re running a risk of getting your jaw rearranged.

Pelunking dudes on motorbikes ad infinitum doesn't win the war. Problem is they have a safe haven in Pakistan, so we're back to incredible fear of nuclear escalation permeating our national strategy.

Plenty of OEF combat vets recognize we lost the war despite superior combat capability. Take a chill pill.

 

[Griz882]

Disposal means that the nation can use them at will without risk to its homeland national security. The U.S. makes broad use of disposal forces, which is what we used to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. The word "disposal force" has no inherent bearing on the tactics used or fighting skill of the units.

Casualty estimates in Ukraine vary wildly, so I'm not going to put too much stock into one source or another, and U.S. media is too stuck on the 'hahaha look at those silly Russians, what a fumbling bag of dicks' narrative.

Russia is building up a force of 1.5 million on the border of the Baltics. That's the size of 10-15 U.S. divisions. We only have 10 divisions active, total.

Our brothers in green don't share your hubris about this situation.

The loss numbers come from Russia.

Let’s be clear…even Russians are chained to the fundamentals of logistics and administration. A force of 1.5 million does not mean a force of 1.5 combat arms types. With a tooth-to-tail ratio of 1:5 that means Russia is actually getting a front line force of some 300,000 to 500,000. As a former infantryman I am quite confident that an American mechanized division is equal to about 1.5 Russian divisions while our armored divisions are about 2 Russian divisions. Add to that you are seriously under counting the U.S. force structure where we have 8 additional divisions, 6 independent armored brigades, and 2 independent cavalry regiments. Oh…let’s not forget the 3 German divisions, 2 British divisions, 5 Polish divisions, 2 French divisions, and a host of independent brigades and maneuver units from smaller NATO allies. In basic numbers we have 2,000,000 available military members and Russia has 2,000,000. But we get to roll in approximately 1.5 million NATO allies. Just for fun…let’s roll in America’s 5800 plus military helicopters compared to Russia’s 1700.

The only concern from Russia is their nuclear force.

 

[Hotdogs]

Pelunking dudes on motorbikes ad infinitum doesn't win the war. Problem is they have a safe haven in Pakistan, so we're back to incredible fear of nuclear escalation permeating our national strategy.

Plenty of OEF combat vets recognize we lost the war despite superior combat capability. Take a chill pill.

Ok dude. Thanks for the lecture.

 

[JTS11]

Pelunking dudes on motorbikes ad infinitum doesn't win the war. Problem is they have a safe haven in Pakistan, so we're back to incredible fear of nuclear escalation permeating our national strategy.

Plenty of OEF combat vets recognize we lost the war despite superior combat capability. Take a chill pill.

What a stupid take...fuck you and your chill pill suggestion. "Pelunking dudes on motorbikes"...are you trolling everyone?

 

[Spekkio]

The loss numbers come from Russia.

Let’s be clear…even Russians are chained to the fundamentals of logistics and administration. A force of 1.5 million does not mean a force of 1.5 combat arms types. With a tooth-to-tail ratio of 1:5 that means Russia is actually getting a front line force of some 300,000 to 500,000. As a former infantryman I am quite confident that an American mechanized division is equal to about 1.5 Russian divisions while our armored divisions are about 2 Russian divisions. Add to that you are seriously under counting the U.S. force structure where we have 8 additional divisions, 6 independent armored brigades, and 2 independent cavalry regiments. Oh…let’s not forget the 3 German divisions, 2 British divisions, 5 Polish divisions, 2 French divisions, and a host of independent brigades and maneuver units from smaller NATO allies. In basic numbers we have 2,000,000 available military members and Russia has 2,000,000. But we get to roll in approximately 1.5 million NATO allies. Just for fun…let’s roll in America’s 5800 plus military helicopters compared to Russia’s 1700.

Yes, on paper if we were to commit all of our available forces to the Russian theater we could match their numbers.

The key problem here is the concurrent conflict with PLAN.

 

[Spekkio]

"Pelunking dudes on motorbikes"...are you trolling everyone?

His words, not mine.

 

[Griz882]

I'm illustrating an example that war is more complex than which nation can inflict more casualties on another.

But we are expected to assume that Russia is a master of war when their finest airborne Guards armored units were checked by a bunch of vodka swilling Ukrainian farmers with Mavic drones and left-over mortar shells?