Hard Power and Soft Power

[Griz882]

Looks like ramping up artillery production is more difficult than expected.

Exclusive: Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine | CNN Politics

Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year.

amp.cnn.com

The real question is how fast they are replacing gun tubes. Once worn out they can fire, but their accuracy is severely degraded.

 

[Griz882]

The global 2 front war and how to manage forces across multiple cocoms is a fairly popular topic.

The punch line is that the outcome is anything but certain victory against Russia and our NATO allies currently don't meet force shaping requirements to ensure victory.

Which permeates into what you see on the news about US pressuring Europe to spend more on military stuff.

Although this administration seems content to just declare that we're not going to bother.

Of course NATO will have to enhance their force structure…thus the weeping after Vance’s speech. The die is cast, the time is now, and Europe knows it. For them it is an easy choice…live under Putin’s thumb or dump a few more bucks into an effective military.

 

[BigRed389]

Of course NATO will have to enhance their force structure…this the weeping after Vance’s speech. The die is cast, the time is now, and Europe knows it. For them it is an easy choice…live under Putin’s thumb or dump a few more bucks into an effective military.

The Germans have got to be losing their minds.

Yes we really do want you to rebuild a powerful military.
Yes, we’re even ok if you ride East into Poland to be ready to fight Russia.
Hell, we might even want you to embrace your far right political elements to achieve national unity to fight Russia.

What? Too crazy?

 

[Griz882]

The Germans have got to be losing their minds.

Yes we really do want you to rebuild a powerful military.
Yes, we’re even ok if you ride East into Poland to be ready to fight Russia.
Hell, we might even want you to embrace your far right political elements to achieve national unity to fight Russia.

What? Too crazy?

It’s all about the music…

Enter Poland playing “Technohead”…acceptable.
Enter Poland playing “Panzerlied”…wrong.

 

[taxi1]

The Germans have got to be losing their minds.

Yes we really do want you to rebuild a powerful military.
Yes, we’re even ok if you ride East into Poland to be ready to fight Russia.
Hell, we might even want you to embrace your far right political elements to achieve national unity to fight Russia.

What? Too crazy?

Any European country has to be thinking having some nukes in the hip pocket would be wise. Security guarantees and alliances are written in sand these days. Heck, Israel and Pakistan have them.

Germany with nukes...

 

[Griz882]

It's coming back after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to the extent that it ever fully went away.

On this, we agree.

 

[JTS11]

It’s all about the music…

Enter Poland playing “Technohead”…acceptable.
Enter Poland playing “Panzerlied”…wrong.

I lived there for a month in the 90's and there was definitely a sentiment from the West Germans that they didn't really care for reunification. Will be interesting to see how these coalitions play out. That was a snapshot in time though.

Griz's musical references fly over my head. 😄

 

[JTS11]

Any European country has to be thinking having some nukes in the hip pocket would be wise. Security guarantees and alliances are written in sand these days. Heck, Israel and Pakistan have them.

Germany with nukes...

UK and France has some. Poland should get some too...

 

[Randy Daytona]

Of course NATO will have to enhance their force structure…thus the weeping after Vance’s speech. The die is cast, the time is now, and Europe knows it. For them it is an easy choice…live under Putin’s thumb or dump a few more bucks into an effective military.

Do you really think all of the NATO countries are going to rapidly expand their militaries- or just Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia? As Europe deindustrializes due to Nordstream being destroyed and grows older due to bad demographics, are these other nations going to choose guns or butter?

The UK, at 2.3% GDP, is calling Defence Spending of 2.5% “ambitious”

What we know about the UK's defence spending plans

Sir Keir Starmer is next week expected to confirm a timeline to increase UK defence spending.

uk.news.yahoo.com

 

[BigRed389]

Do you really think all of the NATO countries are going to rapidly expand their militaries- or just Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia? As Europe deindustrializes due to Nordstream being destroyed and grows older due to bad demographics, are these other nations going to choose guns or butter?

I think the heavy hitters like France and Germany will buckle down on favoring guns over butter, including social policy reforms needed to get there. Also remains to be seen how they form a Western European led alliance. Nukes are an example of something that might make some sense for them to do as a joint project, with the delivery systems owned by individual nations as they produce them.

But overall I think the European military industrial complex will do quite well going forward…

 

[Griz882]

Do you really think all of the NATO countries are going to rapidly expand their militaries- or just Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia? As Europe deindustrializes due to Nordstream being destroyed and grows older due to bad demographics, are these other nations going to choose guns or butter?

The UK, at 2.3% GDP, is calling Defence Spending of 2.5% “ambitious”

What we know about the UK's defence spending plans

Sir Keir Starmer is next week expected to confirm a timeline to increase UK defence spending.

uk.news.yahoo.com

While I can’t predict the future, it may be a matter of simple reality. I believe the EU was counting on a very long stalemated proxy war in Ukraine to keep Russia occupied. For the moment that idea is fading so things are changing.

 

[Hotdogs]

It's coming back after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to the extent that it ever fully went away.

Really? Fascinating. Can you cite the NSS or NDS where it says that? Otherwise - it’s made up in your own mind (plus others, I suppose).

 

[Griz882]

I think the heavy hitters like France and Germany will buckle down on favoring guns over butter, including social policy reforms needed to get there. Also remains to be seen how they form a Western European led alliance. Nukes are an example of something that might make some sense for them to do as a joint project, with the delivery systems owned by individual nations as they produce them.

But overall I think the European military industrial complex will do quite well going forward…

After the election the CDU leader, Mertz, said. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

Not a bad start. He also said he won’t form a coalition with AfD and SDP is running a bit anemic (for now) so that means the Greens. Sadly, for Germany, I don’t see this government lasting too long.

 

[Randy Daytona]

While I can’t predict the future, it may be a matter of simple reality. I believe the EU was counting on a very long stalemated proxy war in Ukraine to keep Russia occupied. For the moment that idea is fading so things are changing.

Ian Bremmer yesterday. I think the odds are that history returns and Europe unravels has a more likely possibility than Europe solidifying.

 

[Griz882]

Ian Bremmer yesterday. I think the odds are that history returns and Europe unravels has a more likely possibility than Europe solidifying.

Interesting, but Europe doesn’t necessarily need the EU to defend itself.