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Iran Building Targets
- Thread starter hurricane221
- Start date
FormerRecruitingGuru
Making Recruiting Great Again
A DDG would still pimp smack that bitch around.
No matter the result will be the same
In 1988 during Op Praying Mantis two Iranian frigates the best they had sorties to engage merchant traffic. DCag from Enterprise Airwing made a fly by I'd run was fired on set up and fired a harpoon. Scored a direct hit on Sabalan. It went DIW and the A strike of A-6s and A7s wheeled in and put her under. The airwing then went to work on sister ship Sahan and were in process of sending it the bottom when directive came from on high to cease fire. The chain of command decided the message had been sent. Sahan never put to sea again. Was there.
In 1988 during Op Praying Mantis two Iranian frigates the best they had sorties to engage merchant traffic. DCag from Enterprise Airwing made a fly by I'd run was fired on set up and fired a harpoon. Scored a direct hit on Sabalan. It went DIW and the A strike of A-6s and A7s wheeled in and put her under. The airwing then went to work on sister ship Sahan and were in process of sending it the bottom when directive came from on high to cease fire. The chain of command decided the message had been sent. Sahan never put to sea again. Was there.
What kind of useless gibberish are you talking about?
I was kinda thinking the same thing. It looks like someone types on his cellphone while driving. Though I do get the gist.
Isn't that what planes are for?
It seems like many assume they will be able to close the SOH, how can one be so sure?
Well, they can threaten and ramp up their various anti-ship tactics. I'm fairly sure that our govt's response will be one of de-escallation, but I'm also fairly confident that most of the anti-surface and anti-air capabilities on their west coast could be neutralized within a few hours if necessary.
Brett
The Iranian Gov't has already mined most of the SoH. If they activate those mines, how many merchant ships do you think will be willing to go through? If we (US and coalition) decide to clear those mines we'll need to establish air superiority and sea control prior to sending in the slow moving mine sweeps. How long do you think that will take? One estimate (UNCLASS) in International Security magazine said it will take at least a MONTH (best case estimate) for the US to be able to clear the mines from the channels.
What will be the economic results of the SoH being closed for a month???? What will be the cost of oil when over 40% of the world's oil market is shut off for a month????
So you don't want to wait a month; you need to open it quicker? How many ships you going to risk in the ASCM evelopes? Sure you can employ US airpower, but what happens when a couple of our pilots get tagged over Iranian waters/soil and get rolled up? Iran will shoot missiles at everything that moves, so we will take hits and we'll lose ships. So, how many billion dollar cruisers you want to send into harms way to cover the mine sweeps?
Iran CAN shut down the SoH, anyone who thinks they can not has not done any analysis of the situation. They won't be able to close it down forever, but the economic impact to the world market of a closure of a week or more could be devestating.
Granted if Iran decided to close the Strait then that will probably lead very quickly to military intervention by the US and most of the world's industrial countries (I'd love to see China sent a force to be in a coaltion with US to schwak someone else) but my point is that Iran can close the SoH for a substantial period of time and it will get ugly very quickly if they do.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
You mentioned this, but wouldn't Iran be cutting off oil supplies to its allies, too? I don't think Iran's government is crazy enough to think that they can take on the entire world, and the long-term economic, political, and military troubles they'd incur from taking the act would far outweigh the benefits of cutting off the SoH.
You don't think Iran will do what ever it feels is in thier own best interests regardless of world opinion? Look at the uranium enrichment program; do you think anyone is in favor of Iran closing in on nuclear weapons?
When dealing with Iran, we must not mirror image our own perceptions on what is the correct course of action. Back in 1984 Iran started shooting ASCMs at oil tankers passing through the SoH, the US had to reflag vessels and provide military escort to keep the oil flowing.
Suppose Israel decides to follow up the Osiris raid in Iraq with one in Iran? What will Iran do to respond? In my opinion, they'll close of the SoH to everything until they get what they feel is adequate payback.
One must also temper one's view of such things in terms of what is likely to happen. Many things are possible, and while we must prepare for those potential trigger events, we can find solace in the notion that most of them will never, ever come to pass.
Brett
Eh?! I have not seen anything even suggesting that they have mined the SOH, at least the navigable ship channels. If they had it would be a blatant violation of international law that we would have called them on a long time ago. It's not like they would be able to just sit there for a long time anyways, they do have a shelf life.
I think that shutting down the SOH is much harder than many expect, especially for a longer period of time. Not to mention the economic impact would be devastating on Iran itself and would cause significant domestic as well as international political problems.
Not only would it be devastating to Iran itself but it would severely damage relations with countries int eh region it has cordial relations with, notably Qatar and Oman, that rely heavily on the SOH and the economic benefits it brings.
It is a 'nuclear option', irony intended, where no one would win. Iran included. Which is why Brett.....
...is right. The closure of the SOH is a bogeyman that is often brought up when talking about Iran. However, the devastation that it would inflict on Iran, both economically and politically, make it a very unlikely scenario to happen any time soon, no matter how nutty the guys in charge seem to be.