Iran Building Targets

[xj220]

I think that shutting down the SOH is much harder than many expect, especially for a longer period of time. Not to mention the economic impact would be devastating on Iran itself and would cause significant domestic as well as international political problems.

I think they could halt movement through the SOH initially fairly easy. The SOH isn't very big and all they have to do is sink a couple tankers, causing others to get skittish and avoid the area. Insurance prices on ships going through there would probably sky rocket, making anyone who would still go through think twice. I agree though, sustaining it would be difficult for them however by then most of the damage would be done.

 

[Mumbles]

If IRGCN pulls some shenanigans....then I'd like to think they's be dealt with....but after being reminded of how the USN was neutered by these dirtbags last year, I'm not so sure. They have been constantly probing and testing us for decades....(including the Vincennes incident). They try shutting down the SOH for a couple days...and you will see the most lopsided Naval battle since Leyte Gulf. I'm way mo' concerned about the "martyr brigades" of Shia suicide bombers that they will unleash all over the mid-east and Europe. And for that matter....I think the USN needs to really worry about the swarms of go fast cig boats loaded with HE. We may have a really tough time defeating all of them.

 

[Spekkio]

You don't think Iran will do what ever it feels is in thier own best interests regardless of world opinion? Look at the uranium enrichment program; do you think anyone is in favor of Iran closing in on nuclear weapons?

What Flash said...

I suppose my overall point was that shutting down the SoH would not be in Iran's long term best interest, and I'm fairly sure their government is aware of this.

 

[BigRed389]

If IRGCN pulls some shenanigans....then I'd like to think they's be dealt with....but after being reminded of how the USN was neutered by these dirtbags last year, I'm not so sure. They have been constantly probing and testing us for decades....(including the Vincennes incident). They try shutting down the SOH for a couple days...and you will see the most lopsided Naval battle since Leyte Gulf. I'm way mo' concerned about the "martyr brigades" of Shia suicide bombers that they will unleash all over the mid-east and Europe. And for that matter....I think the USN needs to really worry about the swarms of go fast cig boats loaded with HE. We may have a really tough time defeating all of them.

The Brits have civilian contractors with go fast boats they bring out for Joint Warrior to play OPFOR. Ballsy drivers too, from the bridge they appeared to cross under our bow when we were ahead flank.

Point is though, surface assets do have tactics that have been validated against them, even in numbers. The real concern is ROE + maneuvering limitations, and there's no real good answer to that.

 

[Mumbles]

I suspect that the 5th fleet could deal with any of these threats independently. Big question is, how will we do when dealing w/ Kilos and mini subs, fast boat swarm attacks, mines up the ying yang, and C-802s and F-4s coming from all directions simultaneously. We have to be perfect. They only need a few leakers to get through.

 

[SkywardET]

Good ol' Grace. That was a fun morning, waking up to the sound of the 5" training towards them. The cruise video segment of that was pretty cool, and a lot of my buddies got awards for that day too (Right Place/Right Time's).

I think BigRed389 is very much correct. The real concern will be ROE. Once the first hit is over and done with, those boats won't be very much of a threat. However, pretty much any ROE will lead to us taking the first hit, should it come to that...

 

[BigRed389]

I suspect that the 5th fleet could deal with any of these threats independently. Big question is, how will we do when dealing w/ Kilos and mini subs, fast boat swarm attacks, mines up the ying yang, and C-802s and F-4s coming from all directions simultaneously. We have to be perfect. They only need a few leakers to get through.

I don't think it'd be prohibitively costly in terms of assets lost.

Like you said...we've got several counters for all of those independently. And when it comes to C3I, we're not perfect, but I'd sure as hell put ours up against theirs.

The leakers are a prohibitive concern if they hit our HVUs...but they can provide support from outside, making the self defense problem simpler. For the MCMs/FFGs or LCS that has to go in for actual clearance ops...they should be able to handle whatever the CAP/MPRA/TLAMs miss.

It's the first strike under peacetime ROE that would worry me.

 

[nittany03]

MOD ALERT

Please refrain from detailed ROE discussions. That is all.

 

[busdriver]

Why would Iran attempt to close the SoH, when it would be much easier and more beneficial to finance a terrorist attack to try to sink one tanker? The fear behind the attack would drive up the cost of oil and force an expensive operation by coalition military in the region and provide plausible deny-ability.

 

[a_m]

The Brits have civilian contractors with go fast boats they bring out for Joint Warrior to play OPFOR. Ballsy drivers too, from the bridge they appeared to cross under our bow when we were ahead flank.

Point is though, surface assets do have tactics that have been validated against them, even in numbers. The real concern is ROE + maneuvering limitations, and there's no real good answer to that.

Who hasn't wanted to strafe pirates?

 

[helolumpy]

I would like to recommed everyone read up about an exercise called Millenium Challenge 02, it's somewhat germane to this topic:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/020906-iraq1.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborger

 

[eddie]

If the Millenium Challenge '02 was meant to look like both Iraq and Iran, does that makes it harder to predict with?

 

[helolumpy]

If the Millenium Challenge '02 was meant to look like both Iraq and Iran, does that makes it harder to predict with?

Look at the threat presented in the exercise and the results that Red achieved. You can call it "Kartuna" or "Redland" the threat is still the threat. They modelled a threat based on realitic capabilites in the CENTCOM AOR and we got our asses handed to us. So for those who feel that the U.S. will operate in the Gulf region and not suffer significant casualties is deluding themselves.

 

[Brett327]

Look at the threat presented in the exercise and the results that Red achieved. You can call it "Kartuna" or "Redland" the threat is still the threat. They modelled a threat based on realitic capabilites in the CENTCOM AOR and we got our asses handed to us. So for those who feel that the U.S. will operate in the Gulf region and not suffer significant casualties is deluding themselves.

While I don't necessarily disagree with your statement, in terms of exercises or simulations, they do tend to discount or ignore the effects of SEAD and Electronic Attack in the final analysis because of it's oftentimes intangible effects. Our real world performance against this kind of threat has historically been excellent - just saying.

Brett

 

[helolumpy]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your statement, in terms of exercises or simulations, they do tend to discount or ignore the effects of SEAD and Electronic Attack in the final analysis because of it's oftentimes intangible effects. Our real world performance against this kind of threat has historically been excellent - just saying.

Brett

Copy all. Eventually we will prevail in a naval conflict in the Gulf region due to our overwhelming capabilies. The big problem is that if someone decides to conduct a suprise attack, we'll lose some REALLY expensive assets fairly quickly.

The United States tends to be caught flat footed to most wars, in fact about the only wars we've started were (Civil War doesn't count) the Spanish American War, pretty much everything regarding Native Americans, Panama and OIF (as of 01 OCT 2010 Operation NEW DAWN).

So I agree that we will prevail, we'll take some hits early and some of the early posts were discussing how the U.S. will take out Iranian forces quickly, but as history has shown, we tend to get our nose bloody first before we hit back.