Iran Building Targets

[Mumbles]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your statement, in terms of exercises or simulations, they do tend to discount or ignore the effects of SEAD and Electronic Attack in the final analysis because of it's oftentimes intangible effects. Our real world performance against this kind of threat has historically been excellent - just saying.

Brett

Brett,
I know you're right. I've been in a few exercises though when Blue Team crushed Orange team and it was absofuckinglutley exagerated. I sort of scratched my head with a few of the other O-3s, O-4s, O-5s, and our Orange cell OIC after we had sank the Kitty Hawk..... and a few of her escorts...... and then they magically regenerated.

 

[Flash]

Copy all. Eventually we will prevail in a naval conflict in the Gulf region due to our overwhelming capabilies. The big problem is that if someone decides to conduct a suprise attack, we'll lose some REALLY expensive assets fairly quickly.

The United States tends to be caught flat footed to most wars, in fact about the only wars we've started were (Civil War doesn't count) the Spanish American War, pretty much everything regarding Native Americans, Panama and OIF (as of 01 OCT 2010 Operation NEW DAWN).

So I agree that we will prevail, we'll take some hits early and some of the early posts were discussing how the U.S. will take out Iranian forces quickly, but as history has shown, we tend to get our nose bloody first before we hit back.

That is certainly true, but when you consider the wary eye we keep on Iran I am not sure how much of a surprise it would be. While Iran does have some surprisingly formidable capabilities in some areas, in others it is just as surprisingly lacking. Much of their threats to the Navy can be largely mitigated by avoiding them and where we can't, like the SOH, we are usually very vigilant. Our bloody nose would probably be more in line with the USS Stark or USS Cole and less in line with Pearl Harbor, at least from the Navy's perspective.

 

[Random8145]

If Israel decides to strike at Iran, would they close the SoH or attempt it?

 

[Flash]

If Israel decides to strike at Iran, would they close the SoH or attempt it?

Maybe you should ask this guy:

 

[Jeff L]

With apologies to Alabama-Matt,I am recuperating from my heart bypass and admit my earlier post was poorly written while just out of ICU. The point of my gibberish was to point out that we have some history vis a vis Iran and the SOH. That was precisely what OP Praying Mantis was targeted at. We concentrated during work ups and at Fallon with dealing with all sorts of possibilities that have been discussed on this thread. The convoy system worked we had three dimensional forces in place at all times to deal with any attempts to close the strait. When we went hot we faced a host of high speed boats and frigates we even captured two Iranian dhows trying to lay mines but we got to them before they could put any over the side. . Iranian acft stayed feet dry and we could not engage The ROE were explicit and thoroughly appropriate and when we acted it went as planned. It was a short but intense action and involved putting seals and marines on Iranian oil rigs while protecting friendly oil facilities. This was the domain of the Desron with air. The major threat was from high speed armed boats several of which were engaged and sunk by A-6s. Intel was superb 20 years ago and I can only assume it is even better. One thing we were briefed on at Fallon was the history of the Itanian Navy. With the exception of a few years under the Palavi dynasty in the 60s when we were training the navy the Iranian Navy has always been considered as a complement to the ground forces it is not a force in it's own right. Iranian military history is the history of a continental force. They have no history of as a maritime force. They have acquired some good systems from the French and Russians but they have never been able to maintain nor operate those systems in an effective manner. I hope this meets approval from Alabama Matt I live only for his approval. I recommend any AWers if you are truly interested in what may happen in the region read the history of Praying Mantis. We have been through all of this before and we will be more than ready to meet the challenge again.

 

[Catmando]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your statement, in terms of exercises or simulations, they do tend to discount or ignore the effects of SEAD and Electronic Attack in the final analysis because of it's oftentimes intangible effects. Our real world performance against this kind of threat has historically been excellent - just saying.

Brett

Excellent? Depends upon the opponent.

Things have naturally changed greatly in the ensuing years. But we still had a surprising number of unfortunate occupants in the Hanoi Hilton, and KIAs - "in the real world" - despite our then state-of-the-art SEAD against a 3rd world country - just saying.

 

[Brett327]

Excellent? Depends upon the opponent.

Things have naturally changed greatly in the ensuing years. But we still had a surprising number of unfortunate occupants in the Hanoi Hilton, and KIAs - "in the real world" - despite our then state-of-the-art SEAD against a 3rd world country - just saying.

Vietnam was an entirely different animal and "state of the art" isn't how I would describe the approach to SEAD compared to what a modern carrier airwing brings to the fight (which is what I'm talking about here). In the last 20-25 years, every single digit SAM based IADS has been soundly (and quickly) defeated, despite pre-balloon hand-wringing to the contrary. Back in the day, you guys just didn't have the tactics or capabilities which our strike groups can now bring to bear.

Brett

 

[Random8145]

Maybe you should ask this guy:

Wish I could!

I was wondering because many believe Israel will strike against Iran if they see it as a big enough threat.

 

[eddie]

Wish I could!

I was wondering because many believe Israel will strike against Iran if they see it as a big enough threat.

Did the braintrust here on AirWarriors ever decide whether the IDF (UNCLASS) could or could not get there and back if they wanted?

 

[helolumpy]

Did the braintrust here on AirWarriors ever decide whether the IDF (UNCLASS) could or could not get there and back if they wanted?

I think the answer to that is an unqualified YES: http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/02/22/israel-rolls-out-worlds-biggest-uav/?test=latestnews

With a 1,000 lb payload it could reach Iran and do some damage.

 

[Catmando]

Did the braintrust here on AirWarriors ever decide whether the IDF (UNCLASS) could or could not get there and back if they wanted?

Report: "Without Russian air defense system, Iran
is sitting duck" FWIW

Related indepth study (pdf), detailed, and open source.

 

[Mumbles]

Maybe Flash and Flyinspy can chime in again....but I remember seeing that pdf file from CSIS last year on JWICS Cat.....
it was OS back then as well, but it was posted on the AW's highside chat. I still think that it's the best piece I've seen. Flight profiles, routes, and ordnance selection is pretty interesting reading. But then you get to the part about what happens if the Iranian reactors are critical at Bushehr.....and the vessel(s) are ruptured. With the prevailing winds...you would be looking at massive radiation casualties even on the other side of the Gulf.

 

[Flash]

Did the braintrust here on AirWarriors ever decide whether the IDF (UNCLASS) could or could not get there and back if they wanted?

Sure they could, but would it really be worth it to them for the damage they would cause and the cost they would incur? It is a very complicated calculus that the Israeli leadership will have to weigh the benefits very carefully. It is certainly not as cut and dry as one would think, and it is definitely not another Osirak.

I think the answer to that is an unqualified YES: http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/02/22/israel-rolls-out-worlds-biggest-uav/?test=latestnews

With a 1,000 lb payload it could reach Iran and do some damage.

1000lb can't do much damage to a facility buried in a mountain, not much at all can. With few assets like the Heron they could do only limited strikes on a handful of targets, the Iranian nuke program is much bigger than that.

 

[Flash]

Related indepth study (pdf), detailed, and open source.

That is about as good a report as you are going to get on open source. Pretty proficient analysis of everything involved, the airstrike stuff starts around page 60 if you want to go there. One ting you will notice, it would take a massive Israeli commitment to do some real damage, something they may or may not be able to do at that distance. Even the Israelis have their limits, one only need to look what happened in Dubai last month to see that.

 

[nittany03]

That is about as good a report as you are going to get on open source. Pretty proficient analysis of everything involved, the airstrike stuff is around page 65 if you want to go there. One ting you will notice, it would take a massive Israeli commitment to do some real damage, something they may or may not be able to do at that distance. Even the Israelis have their limits, one only need to look what happened in Dubai last month to see that.

That strike planning bit made my head hurt. Though they did quantify that they crunched the numbers to prove it is pie in the sky. 70 aircraft in a covert raid?? Umm . . . right.