Question for you and
@RUFiO181 partially to help out the OP, but also for my own edification. I know that for people already already on active duty, the USN is actually very good at deferring to the final adjudication of a case. Is it not the same for recruits?
Sea story time: JO gets arrested/charged with a DUI- a big time misdemeanor, if not a felony in some states. Normally a total career ender, in fact, this JO was taken off the LTJG promotion list and spent 3+ years as an ENS while the case was pending. He then hired a good lawyer and pled the charges down to a more innocuous crime. As a result, he was promoted and back-paid to LTJG and has since put on O-3. I actually know more than one person with a very similar story.
While I take your point
@NavyOffRec that Uncle Sam will always "see" arrest reports and reduced or expunged charges, does the NRD defer to the most recent case disposition, or will they treat a felony arrest as felony forever. My guess is somewhere in between; that common sense is applied and each applicant's package is reviewed on a case-by-case basis.
That said, once the OP is off probation and, assuming for a minute, that he expunges all charges, would he still need a waiver to apply?
Yes, sure- I imagine the mere blemish of any kind of theft-related criminal activity as a 24-year-old would simply make him uncompetitive compared to applicants with no such skeletons, so take my question in the abstract (perhaps if there was more time elapsed, crime committed at a younger age, etc)... Would the NRD still treat him as a felon, administratively, based on arrest history?