Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[HAL Pilot]

Hawaiian was told next week.

 

[wink]

Hawaiian was told next week.

They have farther to come ?

 

[Random8145]

You're picking the wrong nit. Germany was heavily industrialized in that they had large factories that could be targeted. They also had supply lines that were more vulnerable to bombing, eg trains and convoys. NV had no real industry of their own and their supply lines were foot paths in the jungle. The US tried to make "land sonobuoys" to detect traffic on the ho chi Minh trail and then also deforested the jungle to try and find and attack the supply lines.

I struggle to think of a politically viable way the US could have won Vietnam beyond playing the long game and increasing the prosperity of Vietnam so then the people want capitalism.

I know the Joint Chiefs of Staff drew up a list consisting of 94 critical targets to hit in order to inhibit the flow of supplies through North Vietnam but it was rejected by Johnson. There were also the railroads near Hanoi where supplies were unloaded for transport via the Ho Chi Minh trail that were not allowed to be hit. Bui Tin, a former colonel in the North Vietnamese army, said in an interview that if the U.S. had blocked the Ho Chi Mihn trail, that this could have ended the war. General Westmoreland wanted to send forces in to do this but this was rejected as it would have required three army divisions and Johnson did not want to admit to expanding the war which he had promised not to do, so air power had to be used solely.

 

[Random8145]

The German army had tanks and was supported by aircraft. It was supplied by motor vehicles and trains. That makes it mechanized. When you bomb these things, they take a substantial amount of time and resources to replace, diminishing the ability for the Army to replace weapons of war and fight on the front lines. The same raw materials that are used to make a railway also make Panzers.

The Viet Cong had rudimentary bases made from wood, bamboo, and shrubbery that could be rebuilt rapidly and cheaply, and in many cases moved under ground. They were decentralized in that they had no industrial centers producing weapons - those all came from Russia.

Most of the German army was supplied by horse-drawn transport, but I understand what you are saying. Regarding Vietnam, there were railways that near Hanoi where unloaded from the trains were supplies that were sent down the Ho Chi Minh trail and those could have been hit.

 

[Random8145]

Ah, we're talking about two different key ingredients that they need to survive. I'm talking about external support in the way Galula talked about, and I wasn't trying to imply that support of the local populace wasn't a critical ingredient. But if you can successfully cut off an insurgency logistically (includes financially) from its foreign patrons then it will soon lack the resources to conduct operations (doesn't mean they will cease operations altogether, just conduct fewer). What comes next is either suppress it and drive it further underground, although it will survive indefinitely from local support, or (to win) not just suppress it but also turn the local population against it.

We and the former Afghan government didn't effectively do either of those things against the Taliban over the last twenty years- neither fully cut it off from outside help (not from lack of a concerted effort either) nor get the population solidly against them (also not from lack of trying).


(Hope that makes sense when I put it that way... I'm pretty sure I'm not explaining anything that you don't already know.)

There will be plenty of books and academic theses written about all this for the next 50+ years. There's occasionally still original material being published about the Vietnam War...

There's actually quite a bit of original material now being written about World War II as well.

 

[Pags]

I know the Joint Chiefs of Staff drew up a list consisting of 94 critical targets to hit in order to inhibit the flow of supplies through North Vietnam but it was rejected by Johnson. There were also the railroads near Hanoi where supplies were unloaded for transport via the Ho Chi Minh trail that were not allowed to be hit. Bui Tin, a former colonel in the North Vietnamese army, said in an interview that if the U.S. had blocked the Ho Chi Mihn trail, that this could have ended the war. General Westmoreland wanted to send forces in to do this but this was rejected as it would have required three army divisions and Johnson did not want to admit to expanding the war which he had promised not to do, so air power had to be used solely.

Mining Haiphong Harbor was something the US should have done earlier. But there was never the political will power nor the desire of the people to do what needed to be done in Vietnam if the US had wanted to win.

 

[FrankTheTank]

Just watch what happens in 8 days with the Taliban‘s redline and President Shitshow.

 

[wink]

Just watch what happens in 8 days with the Taliban‘s redline and President Shitshow.

Yep. Joe had hinted we may stay longer than August 31st if necessary. With the Taliban now drawing a line in the sand, we will see how necessary it is to stay. I am guessing that some number of Americans stranded out in the provinces will not make it necessary.

 

[Brett327]

Yep. Joe had hinted we may stay longer than August 31st if necessary. With the Taliban now drawing a line in the sand, we will see how necessary it is to stay. I am guessing that some number of Americans stranded out in the provinces will not make it necessary.

I’m genuinely curious whether some bad actors from AQ Classic will come out of the woodwork once the Taliban are firmly in charge, only to be on the receiving end of a Hellfire. In that vein, I would imagine it would be fairly easy to “influence” Taliban behavior with a few well placed strikes. They’re going to be much easier to reach out and touch now that they’re the establishment in Afghanistan.

Side note, I listened to Sam Harris’ podcast with Peter Bergen, who’s probably one of the best informed journalists on the Jihadist movement. He interviewed UBL in 1997. Based in the podcast, I bought his new book, The Rise and Fall of UBL.” He had some very interesting perspectives, and I’m looking forward to digging into the book as I continue my road trip. For now, I strongly recommend the podcast.

 

[wink]

Got a 16 hour drive to Houston starting Wednesday. I'll give it a listen.

 

[Spekkio]

I’m genuinely curious whether some bad actors from AQ Classic will come out of the woodwork once the Taliban are firmly in charge, only to be on the receiving end of a Hellfire. In that vein, I would imagine it would be fairly easy to “influence” Taliban behavior with a few well placed strikes. They’re going to be much easier to reach out and touch now that they’re the establishment in Afghanistan.

Side note, I listened to Sam Harris’ podcast with Peter Bergen, who’s probably one of the best informed journalists on the Jihadist movement. He interviewed UBL in 1997. Based in the podcast, I bought his new book, The Rise and Fall of UBL.” He had some very interesting perspectives, and I’m looking forward to digging into the book as I continue my road trip. For now, I strongly recommend the podcast.

I wonder how long it'll take to realize that CENTCOM ranks 6th of 7th among relevant COCOMs for 21st century threats to national security (AFRICOM being last, but since he's also EUCOM I guess maybe that doesn't count and CENTCOM is 6/6).

 

[taxi1]

I'm most interested in what happens with Pakistan. They have their own Taliban, loosely connected to the Afghan ones. They could have a haven to work from in trying to turn Pakistan and their nukes extremist, or just get one somehow.

Bolton has an editorial on it in the Wapo...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/23/john-bolton-taliban-takeover-pakistan-extremists/

Absent clear evidence that Pakistan has terminated assistance to the Taliban, the United States should eliminate its own aid to Islamabad; strike Pakistan from the list of “major non-NATO allies”; impose anti-terrorist sanctions; and more. Our tilt toward India should accelerate.
Most important, we must devote maximum attention to Pakistan’s nuclear stockpiles and weapons-production facilities.

If a future terrorist regime in Islamabad (or even today’s government or like-minded successors) appears ready to transfer nuclear capabilities to terrorists, we should take preventive action. This is highly unpalatable, but the alternative of allowing these weapons’ use is far worse. China must be made very aware of our intentions and seriousness, including that Beijing’s long-standing, vital assistance to Islamabad’s nuclear efforts makes China responsible for any misuse.

 

[Brett327]

I wonder how long it'll take to realize that CENTCOM ranks 6th of 7th among relevant COCOMs for 21st century threats to national security (AFRICOM being last, but since he's also EUCOM I guess maybe that doesn't count).

Meh. Who is doing the ranking? Chances of conflict in CENTCOM are far more likely than EUCOM. Are you also putting SOUTHCOM ahead of CENTCOM? Would love to see your rigorous methodology in making that assessment.

 

[Spekkio]

Meh. Who is doing the ranking? Chances of conflict in CENTCOM are far more likely than EUCOM.

I don't give a shit about 'conflict.' I give a shit about the ability to inflict considerable damage on the U.S. We're spending billions of dollars and thousands of lives to fuck around with criminals who have very limited ability to reach out and touch us because of a revenge mission from 20 years ago.

Are you also putting SOUTHCOM ahead of CENTCOM? Would love to see your rigorous methodology in making that assessment.

Since you like sucking the teet of senior officers, and disregard anyone's opinion who is junior in rank to you, I'll just leave this here.

And in case you think he's being alarmist, the concerns are repeated by the current USSOUTHCOM...with the additional concern of PRC influence in the region.

But I do appreciate your hubris that I'm too stupid to be aware of and read such documents.

 

[Brett327]

I don't give a shit about 'conflict.' I give a shit about the ability to inflict considerable damage on the U.S. We're spending billions of dollars and thousands of lives to fuck around with criminals who have very limited ability to reach out and touch us because of a revenge mission from 20 years ago.


Since you like sucking the teet of senior officers, and disregard anyone's opinion who is junior in rank to you, I'll just leave this here.

And in case you think he's being alarmist, the concerns are repeated by the current USSOUTHCOM...with the additional concern of PRC influence in the region.

But I do appreciate your hubris that I'm too stupid to be aware of and read such documents.

What are we drinking tonight, buddy.? ?