Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[picklesuit]

This is what is actually going on there…NSFW

(NSFW) Sickening Scenes Of Kabul Blast Aftermath

We have received footage showing the gruesome results of the deadly SBIED blast that killed 13 American troops and wounded more than a dozen. Including civilian figures, the attack killed approximately 90 people and wounded an additional 150.

funker530.com

 

[Hair Warrior]

Also will China try and develop a supply of rare earth metals

Yes, they will try. They built artificial islands from reefs and built empty, planned city centers hoping to a population boom.

 

[Brett327]

Yes, they will try. They built artificial islands from reefs and built empty, planned city centers hoping to a population boom.

We've been hearing this for 15 years. Nobody will capitalize on Afghanistan's alleged supply of natural resources until there's a stable security situation so that the requisite infrastructure can be built. Call me in 20 years to see where we're at.

 

[RobLyman]

This is what is actually going on there…NSFW

(NSFW) Sickening Scenes Of Kabul Blast Aftermath

We have received footage showing the gruesome results of the deadly SBIED blast that killed 13 American troops and wounded more than a dozen. Including civilian figures, the attack killed approximately 90 people and wounded an additional 150.

funker530.com

I have seen more than my share of scenes like this. Not every time we launched, but a good many of times this is what we encountered. At the end of the mission we get to wash out the back of the aircraft. There is a smell...But that is why we were there.

This is what war looks like. Not from 15,000', but from ground zero. Making decisions at a high level without considering scenes like this can lead to terrible consequences. On the contrary, it isn't good for your own mental health to dwell on this sort of thing in every decision you make. Apparently the LTC has really seen this up close and that has contributed to his decision to post on social media. It is probably his way of sacrificing for those who have fallen...trying to contribute to the worth of their service at a time we all find ourselves searching. I'll bet his people supported him and were proud to serve under him.

It takes a special kind of evil to experience this sort of thing and continue to make decisions that serve yourself and own career over your people. I wish I could say they don't exist, but they do. Fortunately, they are rare. But there is no shortage of self serving "leaders" who have been just close enough to a situation like this to think they have seen war. I suspect many of our 4 stars could fit in that category. They say they care about their people and will take action to demonstrate that...as long as it does not detract from their own career. I don't have proof of that. Just a feeling.

 

[Griz882]

I have seen more than my share of scenes like this. Not every time we launched, but a good many of times this is what we encountered. At the end of the mission we get to wash out the back of the aircraft. There is a smell...But that is why we were there.

This is what war looks like. Not from 15,000', but from ground zero. Making decisions at a high level without considering scenes like this can lead to terrible consequences. On the contrary, it isn't good for your own mental health to dwell on this sort of thing in every decision you make. Apparently the LTC has really seen this up close and that has contributed to his decision to post on social media. It is probably his way of sacrificing for those who have fallen...trying to contribute to the worth of their service at a time we all find ourselves searching. I'll bet his people supported him and were proud to serve under him.

It takes a special kind of evil to experience this sort of thing and continue to make decisions that serve yourself and own career over your people. I wish I could say they don't exist, but they do. Fortunately, they are rare. But there is no shortage of self serving "leaders" who have been just close enough to a situation like this to think they have seen war. I suspect many of our 4 stars could fit in that category. They say they care about their people and will take action to demonstrate that...as long as it does not detract from their own career. I don't have proof of that. Just a feeling.

Well said. It isn’t the first war where there was a disconnect between the very high ups and the BOG types. The thing that chapped me the most (personally) was watching some guy who never left the states get a promotion over a seasoned combat vet, but I agree with @RobLyman there are too many more concerned with the “due course” of a career over the right course.

 

[Hair Warrior]

We've been hearing this for 15 years. Nobody will capitalize on Afghanistan's alleged supply of natural resources until there's a stable security situation so that the requisite infrastructure can be built. Call me in 20 years to see where we're at.

I don’t disagree. But - based off of what we’re seeing in other developing countries - I think we could see Huawei and ZTE on the ground within a year, Chinese-funded BRI roads/ infrastructure within 2-3 years (using Taliban-approved labor), and China’s “Safe Cities” apparatus and data collection within 5 years in select population centers. I expect China to try to spend less than we did in Afghanistan with these investments, but gain a better grip on the populace by backing and overlooking Taliban atrocities. The Taliban pretty much don’t care about Xinjiang and the Uighurs right now, but it could become a viable wedge issue later… maybe. My fear is that China would successfully sell the Taliban on the idea that Xinjiang is a success model for repressing the anti Taliban factions, and the Taliban buy into it and let China implement it in Kabul and elsewhere.

 

[Griz882]

I don’t disagree. But - based off of what we’re seeing in other developing countries - I think we could see Huawei and ZTE on the ground within a year, Chinese-funded BRI roads/ infrastructure within 2-3 years (using Taliban-approved labor), and China’s “Safe Cities” apparatus and data collection within 5 years in select population centers. I expect China to try to spend less than we did in Afghanistan with these investments, but gain a better grip on the populace by backing and overlooking Taliban atrocities. The Taliban pretty much don’t care about Xinjiang and the Uighurs right now, but it could become a viable wedge issue later… maybe. My fear is that China would successfully sell the Taliban on the idea that Xinjiang is a success model for repressing the anti Taliban factions, and the Taliban buy into it and let China implement it in Kabul and elsewhere.

China’s concern would not be the Taliban, it would be the coming tribal war in Afghanistan. If China puts troops into Afghanistan they will deal with the same issues the Soviets and U.S. dealt with…and the Uighurs WILL become a concern to someone like ISIS-K. Never forget, this isn’t about governing, this is about shades Islam and they won’t long tolerate a “godless” China.

 

[Hair Warrior]

China’s concern would not be the Taliban, it would be the coming tribal war in Afghanistan. If China puts troops into Afghanistan they will deal with the same issues the Soviets and U.S. dealt with…and the Uighurs WILL become a concern to someone like ISIS-K. Never forget, this isn’t about governing, this is about shades Islam and they won’t long tolerate a “godless” China.

I see China's approach as more the DI_EFIL areas, than militarily going into Afghanistan:

• Diplomatic: curry Taliban favor by being their first and best friend on the UNSC, preventing or blunting future UN actions (e.g. sanctions, BOG observers) that are sure to follow a harsh Taliban regime
• Informational: assist the Taliban in painting the US/FVEY in a poor light wherever possible; present China as a "good guy" and a friend to the Muslim world, as a way to deflect Uighur criticism
• Economic: BRI, resource extraction, and related trade partnerships and economic initiatives; possibly narcotics related, too, as we know China is a major origin of fentanyl
• Financial: provide much needed investment money when Europe, global banks, and int'l institutions (e.g. IMF) might shun the Taliban; China may attach certain strings to these financial levers, but they can't be too overpowering or the Taliban will get financing from private Arabian Peninsula backers; but the Taliban are likely to take whatever investment funding they can get (and maybe pay it back or not)
• Intelligence: Chinese intel services will no doubt be active in Afghanistan, and China may arrange for intel-sharing with the Taliban in a quid pro quo arrangement if China perceives the juice is worth the squeeze
• Law Enforcement: China's model is a mix between Xinjiang and the "Smart City" - which is partly economic (building infrastructure), partly financial (if given on a loan or credit), partly intel (data collection), and partly LE. China may also offer to help the Taliban reconstitute some sort of border control on its various land borders, because border control can be a way for China to gain access to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia

I don't see China putting troops on the ground, but it's possible. China has been known to use forced labor in the past (which China deems expendable), and/or go the route of private security contractors like a Chinese version of Vagner. China can also just co-opt the Taliban and pay the Taliban for security at BRI locations. That's probably the first and easiest route, which only costs money, is the fastest option, will be the most acceptable to the Taliban, and has the least logistics tail.

TL;DR: Follow the (Chinese) money

 

[Griz882]

I see China's approach as more the DI_EFIL areas, than militarily going into Afghanistan:

• Diplomatic: curry Taliban favor by being their first and best friend on the UNSC, preventing or blunting future UN actions (e.g. sanctions, BOG observers) that are sure to follow a harsh Taliban regime
• Informational: assist the Taliban in painting the US/FVEY in a poor light wherever possible; present China as a "good guy" and a friend to the Muslim world, as a way to deflect Uighur criticism
• Economic: BRI, resource extraction, and related trade partnerships and economic initiatives; possibly narcotics related, too, as we know China is a major origin of fentanyl
• Financial: provide much needed investment money when Europe, global banks, and int'l institutions (e.g. IMF) might shun the Taliban; China may attach certain strings to these financial levers, but they can't be too overpowering or the Taliban will get financing from private Arabian Peninsula backers; but the Taliban are likely to take whatever investment funding they can get (and maybe pay it back or not)
• Intelligence: Chinese intel services will no doubt be active in Afghanistan, and China may arrange for intel-sharing with the Taliban in a quid pro quo arrangement if China perceives the juice is worth the squeeze
• Law Enforcement: China's model is a mix between Xinjiang and the "Smart City" - which is partly economic (building infrastructure), partly financial (if given on a loan or credit), partly intel (data collection), and partly LE. China may also offer to help the Taliban reconstitute some sort of border control on its various land borders, because border control can be a way for China to gain access to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia

I don't see China putting troops on the ground, but it's possible. China has been known to use forced labor in the past (which China deems expendable), and/or go the route of private security contractors like a Chinese version of Vagner. China can also just co-opt the Taliban and pay the Taliban for security at BRI locations. That's probably the first and easiest route, which only costs money, is the fastest option, will be the most acceptable to the Taliban, and has the least logistics tail.

TL;DR: Follow the (Chinese) money

Still missing my point. You can not effectively extract minerals during a civil war - the war in Afghanistan is not over, just our direct participation. Another side point that people often get confused by…rare earth minerals are not at all rare. North America could easily match China in production but we don’t like the environmental impact of scratching them out of the earth and then the subsequent act of processing them. “Flat Earth” environmentalist are the types that believe if you can’t see it, it doesn’t pollute, so we let China do it. In a national emergency it wouldn’t take very long to open those lines.

Overall the only real value of Afghanistan to China is to develop a road network that bypasses India, Russia, and the ocean trade routes that are so critical to China’s economy.

 

[Hair Warrior]

“Flat Earth” environmentalist are the types that believe if you can’t see it, it doesn’t pollute, so we let China do it.

This is my preachy vegan brother in law, to a T. He and his wife told everyone in his extended family to drive a hybrid and go meatless to save the planet.

 

[Griz882]

This is my preachy vegan brother in law, to a T. He and his wife told everyone in his extended family to drive a hybrid and go meatless to save the planet.

Saving the planet is a beautiful thing…we just sometimes forget that China (the world’s greatest polluter) is, well, on the planet.

 

[Brett327]

I don’t disagree. But - based off of what we’re seeing in other developing countries - I think we could see Huawei and ZTE on the ground within a year, Chinese-funded BRI roads/ infrastructure within 2-3 years (using Taliban-approved labor), and China’s “Safe Cities” apparatus and data collection within 5 years in select population centers. I expect China to try to spend less than we did in Afghanistan with these investments, but gain a better grip on the populace by backing and overlooking Taliban atrocities. The Taliban pretty much don’t care about Xinjiang and the Uighurs right now, but it could become a viable wedge issue later… maybe. My fear is that China would successfully sell the Taliban on the idea that Xinjiang is a success model for repressing the anti Taliban factions, and the Taliban buy into it and let China implement it in Kabul and elsewhere.

That is all insanely optimistic, particularly since there’s no indication that the security situation will improve.

 

[taxi1]

The Pakistani Taliban have already been suicide bombing the Chinese in Pakistan. Let the games begin.

rare earth minerals are not at all rare

This technology would be a game changer. Been keeping my eye on it.

World's cheapest energy storage will be an iron-air battery, says Jeff Bezos-backed start-up | Recharge

Secretive US start-up Form Energy finally reveals the chemistry of its revolutionary long-duration battery — which it says will store energy at one tenth the cost of lithium-ion

www.rechargenews.com

 

[Hair Warrior]

That is all insanely optimistic, particularly since there’s no indication that the security situation will improve.

ISIS-K is a big problem. But I don’t foresee a protracted, nationwide civil war between the ANSDF remnants and Taliban. That is why I think the security situation will improve as the Afghan people reluctantly begin to accept Taliban rule in most of the major areas, except maybe a couple of the northeastern Tajik-speaking provinces.

 

[nittany03]

This is my preachy vegan brother in law, to a T. He and his wife told everyone in his extended family to drive a hybrid and go meatless to save the planet.

To quote George Carlin . . . “the planet is fine. The people are fucked.”