Not enough Academy applicants?

[IRfly]

On the topic of fewer academy applicants...Sometimes one will see statistical anomalies that don't really constitute trends. For instance, sometimes in population studies you'll see that in a short time period (one to three years, for instance) there will be a significant decline in the number of births due to such things as famines, natural disasters, etc. It's not a trend, but still needs to have an explanation attached to it. If indeed the number of academy applicants is significantly down this year and in the next year or two (big IF), then the 800-pound gorilla that can't be ignored is definitely Iraq. This doesn't necessarily preclude other reasons, but is definitely the most parsimonious.

 

[wink]

parsimonious.

OK, I'm impressed.

 

[snizo]

To continue with your analogy, if I set the braks on my bright silver jet and tell the mechanic it is broke I don't have to tell him how to fix it. That is a true statement. But if I am to look over his shoulder and tell him and every other mechanic in the shop that he is doing it all wrong, that I don't approve of his handling of the problem, I damn well better be able to pull out my A&P liciense and flash the resume that proves I worked on transport catagory aircraft before. Otherwise, my opinion means nothing. Ya, everyone is entitled to an opinion. Most just aren't informed opinions.

That doesn't really apply - mechanics don't get or keep their position from the court of public opinion. They justify their jobs to their bosses just like politicians do. The only difference is how many people they work for.

 

[Ryoukai]

^ You've never had a girlfriend, have you...
"I don't like X activity, let's do something else."
"OK, what do you wanna do?"
"I don't know, just not this."
"If I make another suggestion, you probably won't be happy with that either. So why don't YOU explain what you feel like doing?"
Big fight ensues.

The people who complain bitterly about things but can't offer any suggestion as to how they would rather things get done are like annoying girlfriends.

Edit: Your signature is hilarious.

 

[HH-60H]

Mea culpa. You guys are tough. But correct.

I said random sample, Of course it is not a random sample, in fact, not such thing as a random sample.

In fact not even a sample at all, it is in fact a few data points. Data are accurate (have source).

Let me add one more data point, if I may:

Class lf 1998:

Applicants 11,340
With nominations 5,051
Qualified Nominees 1,959
Offers of Admission 1,555
Admitted 1,207

I guess the point is there is indeed no trend, but in fact, the number of applicants vary from year to year.

And what a damn good class it is.

 

[squorch2]

You've never had a girlfriend, have you...

Man, personally attacking someone for comments in a public forum rules.

To say nothing of misogynism.

 

[Ryoukai]

Man, personally attacking someone for comments in a public forum rules.

To say nothing of misogynism.

If you consider that a deep cutting personal attack, you're a giant pussy. Sorry guy, call 'em as I see 'em. I really like to think that Snizo isn't as thin skinned as you are. If he is, sorry Snizo, my comment on your experience with ladies wasn't serious and was meant for purposes of humor only.

Misogynism would apply if I said that was all women. Not all women are my annoying ex-girlfriends. I have a strong dislike of annoying people, gender is not a factor.

Man, trying to start a **** storm and throwing around genuine character attacks over a fairly weak dig at somebody else rules.

 

[snizo]

Ryoukai - Not sure about the type of women you try and meet ... but the ones I would want to talk to are able to form sentences and thoughts.

The President has to be able to justify his actions to the public if he wants their continued support. Unfortunately for President Bush, the public does not need to justify their opinions to him.

Squorch - what was that? trying to egg on a fight on the playground in elementary school? That didn't even cross my mind until I read your response - I think I can handle a coupla words.

Man ... ok this has nothing to do with academy admissions...

 

[IRfly]

One final comment from me on this...

If indeed service academy applications and admissions are down, I personally don't think it has to do with Iraq. My (completely unsupported by any kind of scientific evidence) reasoning is simple: those who are likely to apply to the academies are also probably likely to support the President's policy in Iraq. But since the new policy on the forum is that if you want to disagree with one theory, you have to suggest a viable alternative ( ), here's mine: either it is just a normal fluctuation, or given the glut of officers, the suggestion for consolidation by the BRAC commission, and the overall trend towards downsizing the military, I would guess that the academies are recruiting less aggressively (unless, of course, you can run really fast with inflated pigskin in your hands). This would also explain the dropoff for the class of '98. I'd be interested in seeing the data points over the last thirty years or so...Wait a second; no, I wouldn't.

 

[Steve Wilkins]

Man ... ok this has nothing to do with academy admissions...

Yes. I think I threadjacked my own thread. Is this possible? I frown upon threadjacking. Yea, right.

 

[mbeaser]

If all polls were right, Kerry would be President.

I doubt Academy applications will ever fall off too far because it is a great way to get a fantastic education without thousands of dollars in debt, especially for lower income folks. Naturally the academies want as many applicants as possible so that they can choose the best of the best, but I'm not aware of them lowering the minimums. They get almost 4 times as many fully qualified and recommended folks as they need. I'd say there isn't anything to worry about.

And (just for the record) it is ridiculous, not rediculous.

 

[TheBubba]

My Bout Of Philosophicalness...

If all polls were right, Kerry would be President.

I doubt Academy applications will ever fall off too far because it is a great way to get a fantastic education without thousands of dollars in debt, especially for lower income folks.

Eh... If that's the mindset you have about the Academy, you are sadly mistaken. Its a great way to become a commissioned officer in the military. Those who go to the Academy b/c they "want a free education" often never see the real reason for its existance. Not all, but some. A few realize that its not just a free education.

The academy is not "free" by any stretch of the imagination. Yeah, it may not cost tuition money, but it requires a commitment both during and after of your life... its a 24/7 thing while you are there, and its military service after you graduate. I think that's a larger price than money.

Also, if you look at the people who go to the academies, its mostly the middle class. Guys and girls who with help could hav eeasily afforded college. These are also the ones who get full scholarships to civilian colleges.

 

[mbeaser]

Hey, this almost has something to do with the original topic!

The academy is not "free" by any stretch of the imagination.

Guys and girls who with help could hav eeasily afforded college. These are also the ones who get full scholarships to civilian colleges.

I didn't say it was free. I said it was a great way to get a fantastic education without thousands of dollars in debt. If you think middle class, or even great scholarships, makes college easily affordable I'd like to know where. Even the qualifications of most Academy applicants aren't going to keep people from having debt, potentially thousands of dollars, from college compared to a service Academy. I admit that I tend to do things that hard way, but I was a National Merit Finalist with great scholarships and I still left college after 2 years to join the Navy, partially to get the GI Bill, and partially to do something worthwhile while I figured out what I wanted to do with my life. I had a few thousand in student loans (from housing) when I enlisted. Now, 10 years (less 18 days) later, I counsel my folks (ie the other enlisted people I work with) about commissioning programs.

I think the summer programs that the academies run really help to drive home what Academy life is like. And, give a peek into what service entails. I'm nearly constantly surprised by how differently I think from everyone else (my parents seem to have forgotten to instill that sense of entitlement in me I so frequently encounter), but I still don't think most imagine that its going to be sailboats at sunsets and tans on the beach all the time for 4 years of tuition free college. I'm thinking most people go for a service academy knowing that there will be service. I don't think that is going to make them any less of an officer. I'm pretty sure they beat the "officer first" thing in pretty well over those 4 years. In the nicest way possible, of course

 

[TheBubba]

Gotcha... misunderstood what you were getting at there...


And yeah, the "officer first" thing gets hammered into our heads alot... a little too much if you ask me. It breeds alot of cynicism (look at the signature)...

 

[wink]

That doesn't really apply - mechanics don't get or keep their position from the court of public opinion. They justify their jobs to their bosses just like politicians do. The only difference is how many people they work for.

But it does in the sense that the critics are just as uninformed. An uniformed opinion is no opinion at all. It is worthless, except in the case of politics where, as you say, the voters matter. So a poorly informed public with baseless criticisim can put pressure on weak politicians to change policy so they can keep their jobs.

To continue with the analogy: I, a know nothing pilot, go to the mechanic's boss and tell him that the mechanic does not know what he is doing. The mechanic's supervisor respects my opinion, even though it is uninformed, and fires the mech. Didn't make any difference how good a job the mech was doing as long as the supervisor believed me. People that have strong opinions about highly specialized subjects such as the war, but have no specialized training or insight should have their opinions greatly discounted, if not disregarded. And those that have the training or insight (senators) should be required to suggested alternative courses of action with their criticisim.