Rand study on USAF pilot retention

[MIDNJAC]

I'll say this about the USN side.....I know nothing about USAF and the original article posted. Like Slick said, admitting there is a problem is step 1. I'm not really sure where this culture of lying and denying came from. I suppose it is to not admit to their bosses that the answer is not what they want. I also agree that non-VFA/VAQ retention is probably not a crisis........their entire career progression from 1st tour JO to DH has so much attrition built into it that they can easily absorb a lot of quitters (for lack of a better term). VFA especially, cannot. And anyone who doesn't admit that there are crazy band aids being applied to stop the bleeding is lying through their teeth. It might work out, provided there is some Great Recession in the next couple years. If not, there is only so much of a backlog of eligible super Jos (who were rolled early from their shore tours) who can early fill DH jobs to make another years quota. As time goes on, I'm a little less interested in the whole system crumbling, and I don't really want to see naval air fail. I just want one admiral to admit there is a problem and do something about it. My suggestion doesn't exactly solve the DH shortage, but in general, I'd bet my next entire paycheck that were PERs to float a non-DH operational flying option for O-4's who don't want to live that pain and don't want command, there would be plenty of takers. I know I would have been one, if that had been an option for me prior to dropping my letter.

 

[A Day In The Life]

I've personally been in the room with PERS 43(s) and several flags and even the Air Boss, on separate occasions (so not Hook) who've all said "we don't have a problem because we're meeting our fleet DH seats."

Except there are already VFA DH billets that are not filled & it's gonna get worse.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Except there are already VFA DH billets that are not filled & it's gonna get worse.

Well that's true, but they just went ahead and decided that single seat 3 DH manning was fine to put that fire out.....

 

[scoolbubba]

I think the SECAF and general officers publicly admitting there's a problem is a great start.

I've personally been in the room with PERS 43(s) and several flags and even the Air Boss, on separate occasions (so not Hook) who've all said "we don't have a problem because we're meeting our fleet DH seats."

Cool. Do they give two hoots when orange and white guys get out? Absolutely not. You become a broken toy immediately upon receipt of VT orders. But when you have even post-DHs and Training Officers leaving at the rate they are, I find it insane that high-level leadership is still telling the ready rooms who are watching guys bail left and right that there isn't a problem.

I should mention too that leadership doesn't care about the culture of Naval Aviation. They don't care about making it fun, or special. So yeah, if meeting fleet DH seats is their sole definition of success, they're doing a bang up job. But they're screwing the guys coming behind them, and they're making life miserable for everyone who's not them.

But hey, in the words of a current flag officer: "if you don't like it, then you can get the f**k out [of the Navy]".

Fuck them. Glad I voted with my feet.

 

[SlickAg]

So I just went back and did a quick comparison between the 2017 and 2018 PERS 43 briefs at Tailhook.

2017: Overall aviation is strong "But...leading indicators in declining bonus take rates and reduced 1310 retention (at MSR and post command) in VFA/VAQ pilot communities." Only 41% at OP-T. Quote from PERS 43 slide.

Pers-43 Briefing - from Tailhook 2017 Symposium

Tailhook 2017 Symposium by Webcast Beyond on Livestream - Livestream.com

livestream.com

2018: 100% VFA selectivity due to decreased retention. Everyone else is doing okay, "but i'd be lying to if i said there aren't leading indicators in other communities...tacair is sort of the canary in the coal mine." Quotes are from PERS 43. 100% OP-T DH manning.

Pers-43 Briefing - from Tailhook 2018 Symposium

Tailhook 2018 Symposium by Webcast Beyond on Livestream - Livestream.com

livestream.com

Interested to see how 2019 goes.

 

[SlickAg]

Well that's true, but they just went ahead and decided that single seat 3 DH manning was fine to put that fire out.....

Who is "they"?

 

[RedFive]

Honest question - Other than hire RAND to do a study, what has the USAF actually done to address pilot retention that the USN hasn't? Things I'm aware of are offering to take retired folks back on AD and structuring a longer term (10 year) bonus.

I agree with the others, step 1, they've admitted it. Step 2, they increased the bonus significantly in an attempt to keep guys, though overall it doesn't sound like a wonderful deal since it's $420k at the cost of 12 years. That's a long time. But they tried.

Alarming number of mobility pilots decline bonuses to keep flying; overall bonus âtake ratesâ up slightly

The percentage of manned aircraft pilots accepting hefty bonuses to stay in the Air Force stopped its slide in fiscal 2018. But turning on the cash spigot appears to have had limited effect in some areas.

www.airforcetimes.com

And according to my F-16 buddy, they've setup some sort of special office to cut through red tape and solve bullshit problems that are driving guys out. "Air Crew Crisis Task Force" or something. Supposedly they improved assignment flexibility and reduced admin duties.

I'm not saying the AF is perfect and has it all figured out, nor am I in the organization so I don't know all the ins-and-outs. But it's like a girlfriend who's pissed at me. I can come home and ignore the issue and go about my business OR I can try to do something about it and even though she knows I'm a fucking idiot and have no idea what she really wants me to do to unfuck it, at least she knows I'm trying.

 

[Pags]

Was talking with a USAF co-worker awhile back who was saying that after his current tour he'd have to go back to the "fleet" and be a "line dog." I asked what that was and he said it was essentially an O-5 pit pilot/gentleman of the mess/V-5 DIVO tour where he'd be expected to fly and eat popcorn in the ready room. Why the USN can't have something like this is beyond me. And then this guy's office mate, who was an old school HS guy, said that post-vietnam USN squadrons were like that because there were so many guys hanging around after the war that had to be put to work.

 

[Brett327]

I know they were a bit slow to admit the problem, but you can't say that PERS and the NAE isn't acknowledging it today. The current and former CNAF have been talking about this often and publicly for the last 2-3 years.

I think PERS' greatest shortcoming was not properly communicating to the rest of us about the problem and what policy changes they had in work to address the situation. Real action and changes to policy and law take time. Nobody has the power to snap their fingers and fix all the problems or assuage people's concerns, but the momentum is going in the right direction. That's my take, anyway.

@MIDNJAC - Again, honest question. Is having 3 DH a show-stopper? I deployed with 4 DHs (one with no quals as a transition guy), and VAQ doesn't have the luxury of an Admin LDO to be AO. Just curious about the impact that has on a single seat squadron and how it differs from my experience.

 

[xj220]

Wait, squadrons get Admin LDOs to be AOs? Why isn’t this more common?

 

[RedFive]

Wait, squadrons don't get Admin LDOs to be AOs??

 

[scoolbubba]

Wait, squadrons get Admin LDOs to be AOs? Why isn’t this more common?

I believe VFA does. We don't.

 

[RedFive]

HSC Expeditionary does...

 

[Jim123]

We had an LDO admin O in HSL land, although I think he came into a gapped billet and relieved a pilot/new DH/junior LCDR admin O right before I checked in.

We had something like ten O-4s though- two on det workups, two on deployed dets, two on dets that were getting back soon or just got back, and then homeguard safety, training, ops, mx (in that pecking order worst to first). Looking back it seems pretty bloated with 50-60 pilots on the roster, so much different from VFA when you can count all the greensuiters on fingers and toes and have digits left over.

I think there was an LDO LT MMCO downstairs and maybe a warrant down there too- memory is hazy.

 

[SlickAg]

I know they were a bit slow to admit the problem, but you can't say that PERS and the NAE isn't acknowledging it today. The current and former CNAF have been talking about this often and publicly for the last 2-3 years.

I think PERS' greatest shortcoming was not properly communicating to the rest of us about the problem and what policy changes they had in work to address the situation. Real action and changes to policy and law take time. Nobody has the power to snap their fingers and fix all the problems or assuage people's concerns, but the momentum is going in the right direction. That's my take, anyway.

In true Navy fashion, they're a day late and a dollar short.

Airlines started hiring big time in 2013. Everyone else saw it coming a mile away. Did PERS? Nope, DH bonus take rates were meeting their historical norms. O-4 Board Bloodbath of 2015? FRS and Weapons School guys made it so the near repeat in 2016 didn't matter.

So yeah, they're acknowledging it now, but maybe leadership could've been looking ahead a little bit better.

Leaders communicate. Aviators communicate - it's one of our seven critical skills. How come they didn't?

But in the end, it doesn't matter. Because the PERS 43 that stood up for years at Hook and said everything is fine made Flag. So did the most recent one.

Everything's fine. Because it has to be.