Rand study on USAF pilot retention

[sevenhelmet]

@MIDNJAC - Again, honest question. Is having 3 DH a show-stopper? I deployed with 4 DHs (one with no quals as a transition guy), and VAQ doesn't have the luxury of an Admin LDO to be AO. Just curious about the impact that has on a single seat squadron and how it differs from my experience.

I am not @MIDNJAC , but I am a DH in a single seat squadron...

There are good reasons we went from 3 to 4 DHs in VFA once upon a time. The variety of flight leadership experience, more experienced folks to field complex issues that arise in a squadron, and the overall workload sharing and dynamic between 4 DHs is generally better for all. Additionally, orders sometimes (often) don't line up with relief, so having 4 means squadrons can go down to 3 sometimes and still be reasonably covered in the interim. 3 to interim 2 DHs leaves a much bigger gap to fill, especially if it's during a high op-tempo. Because of that, squadrons can wind up with DHs being rotated into MO or OPS very early in their tour, and then getting extended to cover gaps or ensure a long enough EP double-tap ticket for CO (>14 months now?), which can really burn guys out. It also doesn't give the DH as much of a chance to matriculate in Admin and Safety as they might normally have. Laugh if you will, but that time is important- I know I learned a lot in those jobs before becoming the MO. And it was still an enormous increase in duties and responsibility.

A super-JO (or several) is a band-aid that is nice to have, but isn't a replacement for a full compliment of DHs (or first tour JOs) in a single seat squadron. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be another option right now. Whether they call it "fully manned at 3" or "75%" manned for DHs, the end result is the same.

 

[Python]

Wasn’t FY-19 a 63% rate of VFA decline of DH after PERS selected 100%? Even with 3 DHs per single seat squadron...seats are not being filled. Can’t AB say the word “crisis?”

 

[ARAMP1]

The AF needed the Rand study because a majority of the decision makers continue to be out of touch.

Example 1)

In early 2014, I was notified that there were too many pilots in my year group with my AFSC. I was offered the VSP (voluntary separation with a payment) of $158K to separate at the end of the year. I turned it down and in the end of 2014...literally 8 months later...I was offered the bonus to stay in. It was $125K for five years at the time.

Example 2)

An E-11 squadron buddy of mine was passed over for O-5. He was offered the 15 year retirement. He promptly accepted and was immediately hired by Southwest. Fast forward 3-4 years to 2018 and the AF announces that they're accepting retired pilots to return for staff duties and white jets (trainers). He had over 2000 hours in the T-6...he did a regular three year instructor tour and then three years at PIT (their version of the FITU). So, he contacts AFPC and volunteers to come back to fly the T-6 for three years. Not only would it boost his 15 year retirement, there aren't many that are as qualified in the airplane. Sounds like a win-win, right? Well, AFPC tells him that they're only taking back pilots that retired at 20 years. LOL. I told him they did him a favor.

 

[Single Seat]

Offer a couple bonuses like docs and surgeons get and I bet a lot more guys will stick around. I might have even taken the devil's money for 100K a year for 5 years. It still doesn't touch airline pay, but it changes the math quite a bit.

It’s not about money, it’s quality of life.

The Navy needs to figure out the Guard/Reserve program. You want to keep talent around for 20+ years (and actually in a cockpit) that’s how to do it.

 

[scoolbubba]

It’s not about money, it’s quality of life.

The Navy needs to figure out the Guard/Reserve program. You want to keep talent around for 20+ years (and actually in a cockpit) that’s how to do it.

Absolutely right on both counts. I'm just saying from the inside looking out, not knowing how good life can be when you have 18 days to do whatever the hell you want every month or can string together three weeks of time off from one week of vacation through the beauty of line bidding or can live wherever the hell you want (so long as you're willing to commute), 500 grand might sway a couple of those guys to gut it out.

Unless you really just get your rocks off flying gray airplanes, every year a pilot who plans to go to the airlines stays in is one less year at topped out captain pay. It better be worth that 200-300 thousand dollar difference.

 

[HAL Pilot]

FIFY

 

[cfam]

Opinion: How The U.S. Military Can Hang On To Its Pilots

To sell young people on flight, keep them in the cockpit and appeal to their sense of duty. U.S. security depends on it.

m.aviationweek.com

 

[sevenhelmet]

Opinion: How The U.S. Military Can Hang On To Its Pilots

To sell young people on flight, keep them in the cockpit and appeal to their sense of duty. U.S. security depends on it.

m.aviationweek.com

Paywall. Without a direct quote, can you give us the high points?

 

[UInavy]

Paywall. Without a direct quote, can you give us the high points?

Gen (Ret.) 'Hawk' Carlisle, now CEO of the National Defense Industrial Association says:

"Use non-traditional methods (CAP, NJROTC) to increase pilot recruitment of candidates with flying experience. This will lead to a glut of pilots that we can't possibly fly enough with the billets we have! We must invest in Live-Virtual Constuct (LVC) in order to keep this new glut of pilots engaged! Also, retain current pilots by making their sense of duty greater to the USAF greater than the appeal to the airlines. We should be flexible with their personal preferences. Also, reduce admin burdens."

I wonder if the NDIA has any interest in promoting the LVC he slipped in there........

 

[Pags]

So...recruit guys who want to fly planes and then train them in fancy sims and then when they get fed up remind them that they have a duty/obligation to stay AF when they think about leaving to do what they wanted to do: fly planes?

 

[sevenhelmet]

?...That sounds stupid.

 

[UInavy]

So...recruit guys who want to fly planes and then train them in fancy sims and then when they get fed up remind them that they have a duty/obligation to stay AF when they think about leaving to do what they wanted to do: fly planes?

Much better summation than mine. But, yes- that’s the long and short of it.

 

[Pags]

?...That sounds stupid.

Much better summation than mine. But, yes- that’s the long and short of it.

Upon re-reading what I wrote I don't think it came off with enough incredulity in it. Apparently Mr. NDIA hasn't considered the fact that people recruited to fly who then don't end up flying real airplanes might feel a bit misled and frustrated with how things ended up. At some point if a lot of "flights" get executed in LVC vice with actual flight time then these guys may find themselves at the end of their commitment with very skinny logbooks that airlines find unattractive.

If the USAF really thinks a lot of training will be done via LVC then they need to hire a bunch of gamers and do the enders game thing.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Upon re-reading what I wrote I don't think it came off with enough incredulity in it. Apparently Mr. NDIA hasn't considered the fact that people recruited to fly who then don't end up flying real airplanes might feel a bit misled and frustrated with how things ended up. At some point if a lot of "flights" get executed in LVC vice with actual flight time then these guys may find themselves at the end of their commitment with very skinny logbooks that airlines find unattractive.

If the USAF really thinks a lot of training will be done via LVC then they need to hire a bunch of gamers and do the enders game thing.

That's probably what the USAF brass legitimately wants. At least if the push toward UASs, LVC, etc. would seem to indicate. After all, they aren't training pilots to send them to the airlines.

 

[insanebikerboy]

Honest question - Other than hire RAND to do a study, what has the USAF actually done to address pilot retention that the USN hasn't? Things I'm aware of are offering to take retired folks back on AD and structuring a longer term (10 year) bonus.

Making it much easier to interservice transfer into the AF.

Allowing O-5s to stay in op squadrons in non-command roles.

Creating ‘fly only’ tracks in gray jets, with the very real possibility of making it to O-5

Bonuses are maxed out for every airframe except helos and UAVs

Looking at creating specialty specific promotion boards. Aka, pilots compete with pilots instead of with the soccer-ball-giver-outer from the base gym

Looking at actually increasing the bonus beyond 35k. The number kicked around is 50-60k annually, but right now CSAF has to lobby Congress to update the NDAA, due in part to the late Senator McCain advocating against anything greater than 35k. There’s also urban legend that the Army pushed hard against the Air Force giving more than 35k to keep the Army bubbas from getting jealous.

Explicitly under manning staffs in order to increase manning in squadrons.

That said, the Air Force isn’t all roses and sunshine. Dudes are leaving in droves due to what they call ‘queep’ and the very real possibility of walking directly into a major airline. From what I can gather of opinions from the information superhighway, if the Air Force upped the bonus to the 60k level, a lot of dudes would stick around.