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Saudis unable to break US shale industry

zippy

Freedom!
pilot
Contributor
That link makes no sense at all; Baghdadi's education is in religious studies, as with anyone who at least purports to be a Muslim scholar or cleric (same thing for them, really). A trained Muslim cleric, no matter how batshit crazy, arguing that the Kaaba is idolatry? That's like someone calling themselves Catholic, and then going on a rant about how consuming the Host is cannibalism. That's like a Jew saying it's OK to burn a Torah scroll. It just doesn't theologically compute. Like, at all.

Conquer Mecca? Sure. Destroy the Kaaba? Someone in that process doesn't know shit about Islamic beliefs.

For a Muslim scholar, Baghdadi does some prettt gnarly things that aren't typically viewed as permissible under Islam.

Conquering Mecca was thought to be one of IS goals early on during its expansion period when it was steam rolling every half assed, US trained and certified A-OK, Iraqi Army unit and expanding into Syria. Holding Mecca would have given IS legitimacy and the Saudis knew what it would have meant for them if it happened.

It's more likely now that years of a bombing campaign, reduced finances and fighter attrition have caused this Hail Mary, rise up and destroy the Kaaba message to be sent since its probably unlikely now that IS will ever hold it. The Kaaba represents the illegitimacy of IS as long as they don't hold it. A secondary effect of a domestic uprising would reduce pressure off of IS as the Saudi and the rest of the Gulf States were forced to focus on exterminating their own internal strife. The Gulf States are already a source of many IS sympathizers and supporters. The security situation in the Kingdom has been getting worse in recent years according to people who've spent time there. The Saudis spend a lot of effort keeping a lid on the problems.
 
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Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
For a Muslim scholar, Baghdadi does some prettt gnarly things that aren't typically viewed as permissible under Islam.

Conquering Mecca was thought to be one of IS goals early on during its expansion period when it was steam rolling every half assed, US trained and certified A-OK, Iraqi Army unit and expanding into Syria. Holding Mecca would have given IS legitimacy and the Saudis knew what it would have meant for them if it happened.

It's more likely now that years of a bombing campaign, reduced finances and fighter attrition have caused this Hail Mary, rise up and destroy the Kaaba message to be sent since its probably unlikely now that IS will ever hold it. The Kaaba represents the illegitimacy of IS as long as they don't hold it. A secondary effect of a domestic uprising would reduce pressure off of IS as the Saudi and the rest of the Gulf States were forced to focus on exterminating their own internal strife. The Gulf States are already a source of many IS sympathizers and supporters. The security situation in the Kingdom has been getting worse in recent years according to people who've spent time there. The Saudis spend a lot of effort keeping a lid on the problems.
Concur. Plus, in a warped sense, ISIL destroying the Kaaba would be a political statement to delegitimize the King. The King of Saud's official title includes "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques," sometimes translated as "Servant of the Two Noble Sanctuaries" or "Protector of the Two Holy Cities."

i.e. If the King can't protect the two holy cities with all that oil wealth, what good is he at all? (so the warped rationale might go)
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Thought experiment (and weekly game we used to play on the Joint Staff) - you get to employ one nuclear weapon anywhere in the world without attribution to any state or non-state actor. You then had to describe the geopolitical outcome or the intended effects of your chosen target and defend your answer with the group. The Kaaba was a popular target, so was Jerusalem. It's a fun game.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Thought experiment (and weekly game we used to play on the Joint Staff) - you get to employ one nuclear weapon anywhere in the world without attribution to any state or non-state actor. You then had to describe the geopolitical outcome or the intended effects of your chosen target and defend your answer with the group. The Kaaba was a popular target, so was Jerusalem. It's a fun game.
That's easy: an asteroid hurtling toward Earth, which saves the lives of Ben Affleck and Liv Tyler. So what do I win?
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Q&A With Author Peter Zeihan: How Shale Is Reshaping America And The World

In November 2014, when the Saudi’s launched their price war, the full-cycle break-even cost across the shale patch was probably about $75 … by August 2015 that figure had plunged to $50 in the Big4 fields. As operators started to redesign wells with the entire lifecycle of production in mind, that per-barrel production cost for new wells dipped to the vicinity of $40 in November 2016. North American shale already is more cost-competitive than the global average. As these technologies continue to mature and play off on another, a price structure of around $25 sometime in 2019 seems within reach.

The Saudi price war is playing havoc with every other country - in particular their enemies in Iran - but has only made 'Murica stronger. Drill Baby Drill.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/02/qa-author-peter-zeihan-shale-reshaping-america-world/
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
"Average well production in US Shale Plays"

"Average well production in US Shale Plays"

"Average well production in US Shale Plays"

"Average well production in US Shale Plays"

"Average well production in US Shale Plays"

Oh, hey. Here's an article to read. Website FAIL. :p

Good catch.

As I mentioned in the Reading thread, his new book is quite good. Really great things happening for the energy sector in the US (except for helicopter pilots due to reduced offshore demand).

From Bloomberg this morning. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...aster-u-s-shale-oil-2-0-challenges-opec-again

A Fit U.S. Shale Industry Challenges OPEC Once Again

The growth is also the result of far more efficient ways to drill than existed only two years earlier. With oil companies benefiting from lower service costs, Shell reckons it can drill a well today for about $5.5 million, down a whopping 56 percent from 2013. And the new wells, thanks to more powerful fracking techniques, are yielding more barrels than ever. The average Permian well now gushes 668 barrels per day, compared to just 98 barrels four years ago, according to government data..."Today, almost every single shale basin is economic in the $35-$50 a barrel price range," said Regina Mayor, head of energy at KPMG LLP in Houston.
 

Gatordev

Well-Known Member
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
Really great things happening for the energy sector in the US (except for helicopter pilots due to reduced offshore demand).

I read a blurb (really, probably an industry feel-good article) that GoM operations will be making a slight comeback in the next couple of years. Personally, I'm skeptical. It's actually a question I have in my queue next week at Heli-Expo, but from the vendor list, it kind of looks like there aren't many actual employers available to ask. Time will tell...
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
I read a blurb (really, probably an industry feel-good article) that GoM operations will be making a slight comeback in the next couple of years. Personally, I'm skeptical. It's actually a question I have in my queue next week at Heli-Expo, but from the vendor list, it kind of looks like there aren't many actual employers available to ask. Time will tell...

Probably big ship (S-92, AW-139) going deepwater - which is single ship 150+ miles out to some massive platforms (think Deepwater Horizon). Lot of the shelf work where you saw 206's and 407's previously is dying. Let us know what you hear at Heli-Expo - and don't miss a trip to Hard-8's BBQ in Dallas.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I wonder whether those states even have any natural gas reserves in the first place. If not, it's easy to outlaw something that has little to no financial impact.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
I wonder whether those states even have any natural gas reserves in the first place. If not, it's easy to outlaw something that has little to no financial impact.

Vermont no - you are correct, it is a feel good. However the western part of Maryland and southwestern New York have deposits and wanted to drill but the owners of the mineral rights are now unable to exercise their rights. Urban vs rural.

marcellusshalemap.jpg
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Massive Natural Gas Deposit Discovered In The Gulf Coast Basin
Technological advancements have just pushed the boundaries of recoverable oil and gas in the U.S. further, according to an announcement by the U.S. Geological Survey. The agency reported that two formations in the Gulf Coast Basin may contain as much as 304.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas plus 1.9 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, making the area the largest untapped continuous gas deposit in the country.

The two formations—Haynesville and Bossier—also contain some 4 billion barrels of crude, according to mean estimates, the USGS also said in a press release.

bossier-resource3-300x274.jpg




http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...posit-Discovered-In-The-Gulf-Coast-Basin.html


Looks like Sarah Palin was right after all. Drill Baby, Drill.

 
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