Saudis unable to break US shale industry

[Randy Daytona]

That is the stupidest article I’ve read in a while. Solar and wind are becoming cheaper, but they’re still more expensive than mainstream electrical generating plants. Not a lot of mystery to that one. Thanks for the clickbait.

It is a little more involved than that. The article linked to German economist Lion Hirth's research that gets into cost vs value, baseload vs variable renewables and a few other articles talked about pricing mechanisms that detailed the problems of integrating more and more intermittent sources of electricity with baseload sources, in particular if the baseload was coal or nuclear (natural gas seems to work better) . A short synopsis was in the New York Times a while back. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/business/climate-carbon-renewables.html

 

[Brett327]

No, that’s pretty much exactly as I put it. In fact, the NYT piece makes my point for me. It’s not a mystery, or particularly complicated.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Wind/solar are important. If for nothing else, for resilience against grid outages.

 

[picklesuit]

Wind/solar are important. If for nothing else, for resilience against grid outages.

Actually, they are not any more or less “resilient.” Grid outages are all about transmission, not generation...
The more you know...

 

[Hair Warrior]

Actually, they are not any more or less “resilient.” Grid outages are all about transmission, not generation...
The more you know...

Concur. I meant wind/solar that are co-located with electricity consumption, i.e. solar panels on roof of your office bldg or residence.

 

[Randy Daytona]

The latest on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Germany and Russia (under the Baltic Sea) which will double the amount of natural gas flowing from Russia - completion due in 2019.

Germany Wrestles With Nord Stream Two’s Implications for European Solidarity

https://jamestown.org/program/germa...am-twos-implications-for-european-solidarity/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...0a403e4720a_story.html?utm_term=.3ceb890c625a

 

[Randy Daytona]

As Sarah Palin said, "Drill, Baby, Drill."

3 American Oil Charts Before Christmas 2018

In the shale-era since 2008, U.S. oil output has increased some 135% to 11.7 million b/d and will be reaching 14 million b/d in a just a few years.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judecl...il-charts-before-christmas-2018/#18c097921a6e

Permian Oil Reserves May Be Twice As Big As We Thought

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/USGS-Doubles-Permian-Oil-Reserves-Estimate.html


and from the Wall Street Journal yesterday.

How America Broke OPEC
Lessons from the U.S. rise to be the world’s largest oil producer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-america-broke-opec-11544831785

Many U.S. producers say they can turn a profit at $50 a barrel and even as low as $30 in the Permian’s most productive regions. Yet most OPEC members need prices ranging between $70 and $90 per barrel to balance their budgets. The cartel scaled back output in 2016, but shale producers roared back as prices recovered. America’s shale gusher has presented a quandary for OPEC and especially its largest member, Saudi Arabia, which faces large budget deficits as it works to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East.

 

[Flash]

How America Broke OPEC
Lessons from the U.S. rise to be the world’s largest oil producer.

Many U.S. producers say they can turn a profit...

Huh, I didn't realize the US was the only consumer of oil in the world. Those claiming the 'end' of OPEC might be a bit premature.

 

[Randy Daytona]

More good news for US oil and gas. Drill, Baby, Drill

Poland Turns Back on Russia In Favor Of US LNG In 20-Yr Deal
Currently, more than half of Poland’s gas supply comes from Russia under a long-term deal with Gazprom that expires in 2022. PGNiG doesn’t plan to extend its agreement with Russia and is looking to secure supplies for after 2022.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-...-Russia-In-Favor-Of-US-LNG-In-20-Yr-Deal.html

Meanwhile in Asia, the South Koreans are ramping up the production of LNG tankers. More good news for the roughnecks in Middle America.

LNG fueling growth, worries from US to Asia

South Korea’s big three shipbuilders — Daewoo, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries — won orders for 53 new LNG carriers in 2018 at about $200 million each, soaking up the lion’s share of the 62 vessels ordered globally

https://www.heraldandnews.com/news/...cle_0238238f-038b-5c95-9926-2b58efbcc232.html

 

[Hair Warrior]

Um, POL hates RUS and loves the US. What’s new?

 

[Randy Daytona]

Um, POL hates RUS and loves the US. What’s new?

Poland moving forward with the LNG infrastructure (long term project) which will allow them leverage against Russia, especially in light of the Russia to Germany direct Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which would give Russia and Germany more control over Polish energy supplies.

 

[Randy Daytona]

In addition to Nordstream II nearing completion from Russia under the Baltic directly into Germany, Turkstream - sending Russian natural gas into Turkey - should come online this year. From Foreign Policy.

Russia’s Pipe Dreams Are Europe’s Nightmare
TurkStream is a commercial and geopolitical coup for the Russians. On the commercial front, the pipeline helps cement Gazprom’s position in Turkey, its second-largest customer after Germany. From a geopolitical perspective, the pipeline bypasses Ukraine and deepens Russia’s strategic partnership with Turkey at a time when Ankara’s ties to long-standing allies on both sides of the Atlantic are fraying.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/12/russia-turkstream-oil-pipeline/

 

[Hair Warrior]

Well, more pipelines are better than fewer pipelines. Build some new lines coming from non-Russia. Competition lowers prices. Lower prices deprive Russia-China of hard currency which in turn is used for defense expenditures.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Russia is/has built pipelines (Nordstream, Nordstream 2) directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, thus being able to supply Western Europe and bypass Eastern Europe. To protect themselves, Poland has signed contracts with the Norway to supply natural gas via pipeline and with the US and Qatar via LNG, the intent being for Poland not to import any Russian natural gas by 2022.

Poland Waves Goodbye to Russian Gas After 74 Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ng-norwegian-gas-as-divorce-with-russia-looms

ABMD - any thoughts on what European countries are in the most trouble without Russian natural gas and which nations are best prepared?

 

[Griz882]

ABMD - any thoughts on what European countries are in the most trouble without Russian natural gas and which nations are best prepared?

I’d dare say Germany and Italy are in the worse place. Germany could easily do an about-face and rely on US (or other non-Russian) sources but I’m not sure they want to do that.