NEWS Space X nails it!

[nittany03]

That article is not very well written, but it appears to state that the FAA allowed SpaceX to continue launch operations as of Tuesday (presumably prior to launch). Whatever corrective actions (flight safety and regulatory compliance) the FAA required after the non-compliant December launch have apparently been taken.

I'm leaning toward this being a nothingburger or "click bait" story. Then again, I have no idea how space launch regulations work and there's a new sheriff in town since December, so you never know.

Basically this. SpaceX incorporated the changes into the SN9 launch, the FAA will be involved in their postmortem on why that one blew up, and then they’ll clear them to launch SN10 when they’re happy.

Which who cares, because obviously SpaceX was going to figure out what went wrong anyway.

 

[Hair Warrior]

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/feb/3/biden-cancels-elon-musks-adventures-in-space/

^ this author seems to find a little more malice in the FAA’s decisions on SpaceX

 

[nittany03]

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/feb/3/biden-cancels-elon-musks-adventures-in-space/

^ this author seems to find a little more malice in the FAA’s decisions on SpaceX

I think I just got a little bit dumber by reading that tinfoil-hatted nonsense. If I'm going to kill brain cells, I'd much rather do it with good whiskey.

The Washington Times also recently got slapped with a cease and desist for claiming that facial recognition tech had proven that Antifa members were rioting in the Capitol. Let's not hold that source out to be any kind of bastion of credibility.

SpaceX most likely misunderstood the parameters of their launch license, went on a bureaucratic roller-coaster with the FAA, and now has to play nice like everyone else in the country. They're going to investigate the SN9 fireball and fix stuff anyway, so they'll just get the check in the box from the FAA and iterate onward.

 

[Flash]

The Washington Times also recently got slapped with a cease and desist for claiming that facial recognition tech had proven that Antifa members were rioting in the Capitol. Let's not hold that source out to be any kind of bastion of credibility.

About the level of accuracy and competence you could expect for a paper owned by the Moonies.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Alrighty, now that we’re back on topic...

SpaceX Launches Its Starship SN9 Prototype On Latest Test Flight, Despite Violating FAA Rules

Elon Musk's company SpaceX has launched its latest Mars prototype rocket, Starship, on a second high-altitude test – after it emerged they had launched a previous prototype without approval last year.

www.forbes.com

This article, plus news that the FAA (not SpaceX) is conducting the investigation of SN9, will not please Elon Musk, who hates government-imposed delays to innovation, and did not grow up in the US government system.

My quick take: There exists an unlikely - but real - possibility that Musk moves/expands his launch facility currently in Boca Chica (Brownsville, TX) into Mexico, to enable orbital and suborbital launches from Mexican airspace without FAA oversight. The international border is only a couple miles south of the current launch pad, and the control/support facilities can likely remain in TX. Musk may be willing to exchange money for time and freedom, with financial incentives for Mexico to allow SpaceX to operate with fewer restrictions.

Indicators of this COA could include: new FAA restrictions on SpaceX that Musk perceives as intolerable, contruction activity on the Mexico side of the border by Musk-affiliated companies, and/or public feuds or displeasure between Musk and FAA officials.

 

[nittany03]

Alrighty, now that we’re back on topic...

SpaceX Launches Its Starship SN9 Prototype On Latest Test Flight, Despite Violating FAA Rules

Elon Musk's company SpaceX has launched its latest Mars prototype rocket, Starship, on a second high-altitude test – after it emerged they had launched a previous prototype without approval last year.

www.forbes.com

This article, plus news that the FAA (not SpaceX) is conducting the investigation of SN9, will not please Elon Musk, who hates government-imposed delays to innovation, and did not grow up in the US government system.

My quick take: There exists an unlikely - but real - possibility that Musk moves/expands his launch facility currently in Boca Chica (Brownsville, TX) into Mexico, to enable orbital and suborbital launches from Mexican airspace without FAA oversight. The international border is only a couple miles south of the current launch pad, and the control/support facilities can likely remain in TX. Musk may be willing to exchange money for time and freedom, with financial incentives for Mexico to allow SpaceX to operate with fewer restrictions.

Indicators of this COA could include: new FAA restrictions on SpaceX that Musk perceives as intolerable, contruction activity on the Mexico side of the border by Musk-affiliated companies, and/or public feuds or displeasure between Musk and FAA officials.

This is complete absurdity from beginning to end. Nothing says the FAA will conduct the investigation; in fact, they never do that anyway. If it's an aircraft mishap, the NTSB does. SpaceX will here. The FAA said they will oversee it. SpaceX will investigate, because they are the experts on how Starship is put together. Then they'll pull the FAA into a conference room with a PPT deck and go "here's what we found and here's our mitigation plan," go through the paperwork, and say "can we have our SN10 launch license, please?" Besides which, Elon can't just move ops to Mexico, because launch systems are ITAR-controlled, and there's no way in hell he's getting an export license.

Posts exactly like this are why you catch shit on this site. Because you post wild takes completely out of your realm of expertise, simultaneously throw an unnecessary conspiracy or secret plot in there somewhere, and then get all offended when you get told that what you posted is nonsense.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Okay. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next decade. I don’t think it’s farfetched or out-of-character for Musk to take his toys and go play in a different sandbox where he’ll enjoy fewer restrictions. You seem to think it’s impossible.

 

[fc2spyguy]

Okay. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next decade. I don’t think it’s farfetched or out-of-character for Musk to take his toys and go play in a different sandbox where he’ll enjoy fewer restrictions. You seem to think it’s impossible.

What you’re missing is that while they’re his toys, he can’t really take them anywhere. Familiar with ITAR?

 

[nittany03]

Okay. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next decade. I don’t think it’s farfetched or out-of-character for Musk to take his toys and go play in a different sandbox where he’ll enjoy fewer restrictions. You seem to think it’s impossible.

It's not impossible; it's just a bureaucratic nightmare over and above dealing with FAA oversight of a test program. And it's virtually a textbook example of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

He can't unilaterally take his toys elsewhere when space launch vehicles are on the US Munitions List under the same category as AMRAAMs and Trident missiles. He needs an export license from the Department of State. And if you don't think asking for a license to take what could potentially become the US's flagship launch system to another country isn't going to raise a bipartisan political shitstorm and almost certainly get denied on optics alone, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Elon's got the best game in town right here. There's no way in hell he's going to burn his relationships with NASA and everyone else to set up shop in some third-world country to evade oversight. He's going to bitch and complain on Twitter, then lobby behind the scenes to get regs changed to something he can live with, because he knows he's set up to make bank the way things are. Count on it.

 

[Hair Warrior]

What you’re missing is that while they’re his toys, he can’t really take them anywhere. Familiar with ITAR?

Yes. Like I said, I don’t think Elon cares about regulations, and he hates if get in the way of his planned timelimes. We’ve just seen him conduct an unauthorized launch. There are ways around ITAR if you are willing to throw money/time at the problem. Elon has a very public and aggressive timetable for his space exploration missions. He has made public comments to the effect of: it’s mankind’s greatest priority, eclipsing the needs of any one nation. He hates regulations and has moved residency in part to avoid regulations. He has no great affinity or loyalty for the United States. I said that it was an unlikely but real possibility over the next decade. I’m comfortable with stating that and we can check back in on it in 2031.

 

[Hair Warrior]

because he knows he's set up to make bank the way things are.

I guess this is where we disagree the most. Yes, it’s true that money and coercion/compliance make sense as motivating factors for most CEOs.

But I don’t see Elon as being motived primarily by money, at least not on the topic of spacefaring. I also don’t see Elon being motivated greatly by coercion/compliance (i.e. U.S. govt threats of punitive repercussions with laws/regs). I believe Elon is far more motivated by ideology (i.e. that humanity has a short timeframe to succeed at spacefaring) and ego (i.e. govt shouldn’t hinder Elon’s momentum).

 

[Flash]

Yes. Like I said, I don’t think Elon cares about regulations, and he hates if get in the way of his planned timelimes. We’ve just seen him conduct an unauthorized launch. There are ways around ITAR if you are willing to throw money/time at the problem. Elon has a very public and aggressive timetable for his space exploration missions. He has made public comments to the effect of: it’s mankind’s greatest priority, eclipsing the needs of any one nation. He hates regulations and has moved residency in part to avoid regulations.

If you really think that Elon Musk can throw a hissy fit and move his space ops down to Mexico or another country on a whim all you are doing is demonstrating that you don't know jack or shit about the subject.

SpaceX exists in large part because the US government enables it, allowing it to utilize US facilities and providing it considerable funding via NASA and the DoD. Not only that but it has thrived in an enviroment that provides it well-founded legal and regulatory frameworks, some of which have been modified or created to enable SpaceX and its new commercial competitors to compete against well-established competitors and the government itself. I pretty sure that there isn't another country in the world where SpaceX could have thrived as it has in the US.

That isn't even considering all of the domestic and international laws, treaties and agreements that would impede SpaceX packing up and leaving this country. Why all the concern about SLV's? Look up the history of SLV's from the R-7 to the Minotaur IV and you'll see why. And Mexico? Are you serious?

I'll just post Nittany's quote since he sums it up better than I could:

This is complete absurdity from beginning to end....Posts exactly like this are why you catch shit on this site. Because you post wild takes completely out of your realm of expertise, simultaneously throw an unnecessary conspiracy or secret plot in there somewhere, and then get all offended when you get told that what you posted is nonsense.

 

[Brett327]

you don't know jack or shit about the subject

Standard.

 

[RedFive]

There exists an unlikely - but real - possibility that Musk moves/expands his launch facility currently in Boca Chica (Brownsville, TX) into Mexico, to enable orbital and suborbital launches from Mexican airspace without FAA oversight. The international border is only a couple miles south of the current launch pad, and the control/support facilities can likely remain in TX.

I hate to jump on the bandwagon, but there's another reason you're wrong. ITAR aside, if you know Mexico, you know that physical security is a problem in some areas and perfectly fine in others. Directly across the border from Brownsville is Matamoros, which is distinctly NOT a safe area. He would need a private police force of Blackwater types (i.e. not locals) to make sure the launch site and all of his employees would be safe. That is a huge undertaking in Mexico.

Granted, if he were to make such a move, AMLO (El Presidente) would most definitely utilize his newly formed Guardia Nacional (National Guard, a hodgepodge of federal, army, and naval police units which isn't even 2 years old at this point) which debuted with great fanfare and has had lackluster results. In other words, crime levels have remained constant. The risk is too high for Musk to rely on the National Guard, but AMLO is politically committed to ensuring his National Guard project isn't seen as a failure. There is no safety net for Musk if they fail.

If you want real security in Mexico, you need the Mexican Navy and Marines to be involved, those are the only organizations which have historically been able to withstand corruption and affect real change, but utilizing them (or even a Blackwater type organization) would be a black eye for AMLO. The Mexican Naval Academy is located in Veracruz and a decade ago the entire city was overrun by cartel and corrupt police -- the Navy got tired of it and brought in their own forces to secure the city. Drive around Veracruz today and you'll see Mexican Marines in their trucks all wearing baklavas. In a way, one might say the American and Mexican Navies have something in common -- they both captured Veracruz.

In any case, if one were to utilize Mexico as a launch pad, you'd go to Cabo or La Paz in Baja. From an orbital mechanics point of view, it is much more favorable at a lower latitude. From a security point of view, all of Baja is patrolled by the Mexican Navy and Marines - there's a reason your Toyota Tacoma was made in Baja. And Cabo being a huge tourist destination and being physically separate from mainland Mexico means physical security is already assured. From a logistics standpoint, there are plenty of flights to get your people in and out.

But why go to all this trouble when he could just make a bigger sea-going launch pad and not have to deal with any of this?

 

[Mos]

Drive around Veracruz today and you'll see Mexican Marines in their trucks all wearing baklavas.

In all seriousness, this is interesting stuff about Mexico.