I see this a lot. The 20 something JO makes LT and gets out.
I have personally know many who were prior enlisted and then were commissioned, either via OCS programs or LDO/CWO and only 2 of them stayed past 20 years of service and continued to serve after their obligation was complete to retire as an officer, both of them I had met AFTER they had passed 20 years of service and had exceeded their obligation.
The number of prior enlisted that desire or try to stay past their earliest retirement date is much smaller than you all believe, that is why some communities started putting limits on how much AD time a person can have, I would venture to say the increase in age is more about people joining the service at a later age rather than allowing those with lots of AD time to become an officer later.
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We wanted to look at the demographics on retention to make sure when debating an issue we have the statistics to back up our claims otherwise we are just speaking out of term, I mentioned prior service because once they switch they have to do 10 years to retire as an O, where a non prior is only obligated to do 4 active 4 IRR, the prior isn’t likely to do just 4 and leave because they have invested in their career time and desire to do more for the organization (there are other reasons which are negative and I won’t mention but you know what I’m not saying if you been around) otherwise they would have left at 4 right out of bootcamp, which many do as we know
The attrition rates of when you look at personnel who completed 20-30+ years is very low and if you are obligated to fill Manning in certain communities with less priors and more civilians the numbers go down even more. How can we know who will complete a 20-30 year contract once they join and it seems a bit unrealistic to expect a non prior to even know if they want to so early, sure they can have the intent, however the Navy must satisfy personal and professional goals first in order to do so, as it’s counterproductive to complete 20+ years if you are miserable. The Navy provides a unique dynamic where you deploy, PCS to new locations, and are constantly on the move at a moments notice, not to mention let’s factor in learning our culture, developing military bearing, learning how to co exist around diverse personalities and behavior, dealing with conflict, and how to perform under pressure just to name a few. The member who is prior has already accomplished half the battle. We also are supposed to “retain talent”, we are supposed to develop a “culture of excellence”, etc. How can you accomplish those goals without looking in-house first at the loyal personnel with whom already have buy-in? Or maybe it’s just numbers where we just need a body and filled it with a body, doesn’t have to be the right body just a body that is young enough to do 30 per instruction.