It’s hardly 4D Chess…it is simply brute pressure on the Ukraine to get on board. Trump has the statesmanship of an angry mule, but it is clear the status quo isn’t working. Let’s face face it, Obama never thought Ukraine had a chance against Russia (thus his hand wave over Crimea and the Donbas), Trump hoped he could sanction Putin into submission while leaving the Ukraine unarmed, and Biden, while keeping Trump’s sanctions in place, decided to increase defensive weapons shipments and just enough economic and intelligence aid to Ukraine to keep it from collapsing…sufficient to hold but not enough to win it and thereby provoke nuclear Russia. Biden hoped to keep feeding the war endlessly in efforts to bleed out the Russian military, weaken Putin, perhaps provoke a “democratic revolution” in Russia, but never pole the nuclear bear…it didn’t work. (Remember that during the Biden admins final year key shipments and weapons to Ukraine were stalled not just by months of congressional delays, but also by internal debates over escalation risks with Russia).
Even the loyal opposition in the U.S. has maintained that NATO membership is a non-starter for the Ukraine (Biden included). No one at Biden’s State Department ever imagined that Crimea would return to Ukraine. So, since hope failed as an option the next best thing is to drag Zelensky to the treaty table and set the stage with realistic expectations. 1. Russia returns to February 2022 borders in exchange for Ukraine surrendering territorial gains in Russia. 2. Promise Russia that Ukraine will stay out of NATO in exchange for keeping a European PKF in the area (that will also train the Ukrainian armed forces) 3. Allow U.S. interests to do business in Ukraine for a variety of economic and strategic advantages. In short, tie the business dollar to the Ukraine (as opposed to the defense dollar) as an added protection against Russian invasions.
