So you don’t think your inability to have pilots qualled on ‘classics’, NG, and MAX series played any role in it? Because I think every other major US 737 operator had already retired their -300/500s.
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The SHOW: Airlines still a "good gig"??
- Thread starter A4sForever
- Start date
I’m not sure what you’re getting at. The FAA didn’t allow it. They retired the classics right before the first MAX flights.
I thought the deal was you could fly two of the three but not all three, because you can only fly two aircraft types for a 121 carrier.
Regardless, I think there were clearly some other concerns as well.
Southwest Airlines Pilots Use 737 MAX Order as Bargaining Chip | Airways Magazine
Pilots for Southwest Airlines are using the carrier's order for the Boeing 737 MAX as a bargaining chip in negotiations over a new contract.
airwaysmag.com
Saying Goodbye to a Classic: The Last Flight of Southwest’s Boeing 737-300s Is Near
Southwest Airlines’ Boeing 737-300s, dubbed the Classics, will make their last and final flight on September 29th. The 737-300s have been in service since the 1980s making them among the oldest planes in the Southwest
www.avgeekery.com
Not being able to fly classics, NG’s, and MAX at the same time does not support the argument that the MAX came to be because of SWA.I thought the deal was you could fly two of the three but not all three, because you can only fly two aircraft types for a 121 carrier.
Regardless, I think there were clearly some other concerns as well.
Southwest Airlines Pilots Use 737 MAX Order as Bargaining Chip | Airways Magazine
Pilots for Southwest Airlines are using the carrier's order for the Boeing 737 MAX as a bargaining chip in negotiations over a new contract.
Saying Goodbye to a Classic: The Last Flight of Southwest’s Boeing 737-300s Is Near
Southwest Airlines’ Boeing 737-300s, dubbed the Classics, will make their last and final flight on September 29th. The 737-300s have been in service since the 1980s making them among the oldest planes in the Southwestwww.avgeekery.com
The MAX didn’t come to be bc of SWA.
But the decision to have it be the same type rating as the NG was most likely influenced by one of Boeing’s biggest 737 customers. If there were two separate types, no need for it to stall like an NG, therefore no MCAS, and the rest is history.
But SWA was (is ?) the biggest MAX customer by a long shot. That didn't happen over night. Meetings took place, requirements communicated. Not saying single type and min differences training didn't benefit all customers, but you just can't ignore the fact that as possibly the biggest 737 customer for Boeing over decades, they did not have sway. No need to defend it. It is called customer service. It was up to the FAA to step on the brakes when Boeing asked for too much. SWA was not certifying designs or approving training.
That same desire exists for every other NG operator who bought the MAX. It’s absurd to say it’s because of one customer. The MAX literally was launched to secure an order from AA, but it would be crazy to say they are reason they designed it the way they did.
Wikipedia says 280 orders for SWA. 251 for Lion Air, 251 for FlyDubai. Several others around 200 orders. SWA is a tiny fraction of the total 4400 orders. It’s a wives tale that just keeps going that SWA tells Boeing how to design 737’s.
I don't see a scenario in which ALPA would support single pilot or autonomous ops either.
To quote Han Solo- "But who's going to fly it, kid?"
ALPA won’t, but the airlines themselves will potentially go to war to lobby for it, and they have the cash and motivation to fight that war.
“Never tell me the odds”
Not anymore.
You'll see single/unpiloted large transport aircraft pop up in other sectors of the industry before airlines, and (spoiler alert), it's not coming anytime soon.
Cargo has been doing well. And they have always been thought of as the de facto guinea pigs. I guess I’ll ask your crystal ball: what defines “anytime soon?”
It‘s gonna take more than just lobbying. Like for instance, there exists ZERO single pilot certified aircraft on the market (Heavy transport). Take the MAX, which is the current thread jack, it is certified for 2 pilots and brand new. There is nothing in development for 1 pilot. Also look at the MAX, Boeing can’t even get that thing recertified cause the FAA takes forever even with money being thrown at it.
^This. I've been hearing why drones are replacing "everything tomorrow" for the past 20 years, and it hasn't happened. If anything, the digital environment has become less secure, and more prone to software issues.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I'd define "anytime soon" here as the next 10 years. My bigger point is, you'll be able to see it coming a long way off. It won't crush the industry overnight the way COVID-19 has.
The time, money, and effort it takes to develop and certify a clean sheet design or make substantial modifications to an existing design suggests minimum crew reduction for a heavy transport would take at least several years- AFTER a design is started. As @FrankTheTank points out, that hasn't happened yet, at least not publicly. To single- or zero- pilot certify an existing design requires substantial modification and complete recertifying to the latest regs, making such modifications expensive and impractical. This is all also assuming the issues of AI, digital security, redundant safety, and public acceptance are all able to be addressed.
Look, drones are great. But piloted aircraft are not on the verge of being totally replaced. I also don't believe we'd want them to be.
If it gets to 2030 and large numbers of people with zero flight experience are happily riding around in autonomous aircraft, then I'll admit I was wrong. But I don't believe I am.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I'd define "anytime soon" here as the next 10 years. My bigger point is, you'll be able to see it coming a long way off. It won't crush the industry overnight the way COVID-19 has.
The time, money, and effort it takes to develop and certify a clean sheet design or make substantial modifications to an existing design suggests minimum crew reduction for a heavy transport would take at least several years- AFTER a design is started. As @FrankTheTank points out, that hasn't happened yet, at least not publicly. To single- or zero- pilot certify an existing design requires substantial modification and complete recertifying to the latest regs, making such modifications expensive and impractical. This is all also assuming the issues of AI, digital security, redundant safety, and public acceptance are all able to be addressed.
Look, drones are great. But piloted aircraft are not on the verge of being totally replaced. I also don't believe we'd want them to be.
If it gets to 2030 and large numbers of people with zero flight experience are happily riding around in autonomous aircraft, then I'll admit I was wrong. But I don't believe I am.
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It's complicated and yet it's as simple as that- the technology is there to make it happen (we can put a cruise missile through a window on the other side of the world and we've had that ability for a long time), but the technology to make sure it happens is the complicated part.