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The SHOW: Airlines still a "good gig"??

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
It's complicated and yet it's as simple as that- the technology is there to make it happen (we can put a cruise missile through a window on the other side of the world and we've had that ability for a long time), but the technology to make sure it happens is the complicated part.

Yep. Hard to beat the combination of 2 highly trained humans and a highly automated system for making sure all those airplane things happen safely and reliably.
 

zippy

Freedom!
pilot
Contributor
It's complicated and yet it's as simple as that- the technology is there to make it happen (we can put a cruise missile through a window on the other side of the world and we've had that ability for a long time), but the technology to make sure it happens is the complicated part.

Don’t forget the part where they have to have the technology to make sure autonomous airliners aren’t being put through windows as well.
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
They are already working on autonomous air taxis. I imagine if that is successful the path would be to scale up from there.
 

phrogdriver

More humble than you would understand
pilot
Super Moderator
They are already working on autonomous air taxis. I imagine if that is successful the path would be to scale up from there.

Agreed. Those will come first, and relatively soon—within 10 years.
Eventually cargo and then airline flights will be automated. It will take a lot longer though—probably not within the working life of V those on the forum.
The technical problems are different, but also there isn’t a huge existing infrastructure of billions of dollars worth of airplanes and related equipment to replace. Those planes are built to last decades, so even if the breakthrough was tomorrow, it would take a long time to implement.
 

Python

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
^This. I've been hearing why drones are replacing "everything tomorrow" for the past 20 years, and it hasn't happened. If anything, the digital environment has become less secure, and more prone to software issues.



I don't have a crystal ball, but I'd define "anytime soon" here as the next 10 years. My bigger point is, you'll be able to see it coming a long way off. It won't crush the industry overnight the way COVID-19 has.

The time, money, and effort it takes to develop and certify a clean sheet design or make substantial modifications to an existing design suggests minimum crew reduction for a heavy transport would take at least several years- AFTER a design is started. As @FrankTheTank points out, that hasn't happened yet, at least not publicly. To single- or zero- pilot certify an existing design requires substantial modification and complete recertifying to the latest regs, making such modifications expensive and impractical. This is all also assuming the issues of AI, digital security, redundant safety, and public acceptance are all able to be addressed.

Look, drones are great. But piloted aircraft are not on the verge of being totally replaced. I also don't believe we'd want them to be.

If it gets to 2030 and large numbers of people with zero flight experience are happily riding around in autonomous aircraft, then I'll admit I was wrong. But I don't believe I am.

I agree with what you’re saying, but I was talking more about the single pilot “threat” particularly at cargo, not the zero pilot threat. I’m hoping that it doesn’t come to fruition in day, the next 32 years.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Actually, fully autonomous cars are a bigger tech challenge than air taxis or airliners, and THAT is where the effort is now. If you can safely move a vehicle autonomously through traffic with dozens, even hundreds of other cars driven by unpredictable humans, in varying conditions, you can launch an unpiloted plane, fly it on airways or from GPS way point to way point, descend and land. Of course UAVs do it now, but airlines are practically doing it already. The pilots are just making program changes that can be uplinked or be made by AI. We are all familiar with Tesla autopilot, Waymo and others. When they have that down pat, watch out. Public acceptance will be the only hinderance. The business decision will be a no brainer.
 

HokiePilot

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Actually, fully autonomous cars are a bigger tech challenge than air taxis or airliners, and THAT is where the effort is now. If you can safely move a vehicle autonomously through traffic with dozens, even hundreds of other cars driven by unpredictable humans, in varying conditions, you can launch an unpiloted plane, fly it on airways or from GPS way point to way point, descend and land. Of course UAVs do it now, but airlines are practically doing it already. The pilots are just making program changes that can be uplinked or be made by AI. We are all familiar with Tesla autopilot, Waymo and others. When they have that down pat, watch out. Public acceptance will be the only hinderance. The business decision will be a no brainer.

I agree with you mostly. Cars are way harder to automate. There are lots of improvements in efficiency that can be made if all the planes are automated too. You don't have to guess when the base turn will be. No long finals with flaps out. Much easier to get the best altitude in cruise.

What pilots need to focus on is the safety aspect. The final decision making authority of safety of flight. I don't see a need for that role to go away. Maybe you could get away with someone at headquarters doing it covering multiple flights at a time kind of like dispatchers. But separate from dispatchers. Those roles should be separate to provide double looking at things.

But I really think you loose something not having the person ultimately responsible for the safety of flight on the aircraft. We are always going to need flight attendants. I don't think they are every going to take over the ultimate authority role. Who else would have that role if not us?
 

FrankTheTank

Professional Pot Stirrer
pilot
Actually, fully autonomous cars are a bigger tech challenge than air taxis or airliners, and THAT is where the effort is now. If you can safely move a vehicle autonomously through traffic with dozens, even hundreds of other cars driven by unpredictable humans, in varying conditions, you can launch an unpiloted plane, fly it on airways or from GPS way point to way point, descend and land. Of course UAVs do it now, but airlines are practically doing it already. The pilots are just making program changes that can be uplinked or be made by AI. We are all familiar with Tesla autopilot, Waymo and others. When they have that down pat, watch out. Public acceptance will be the only hinderance. The business decision will be a no brainer.
I don’t what airplane you were flying at American but having flown 5 different transport category aircraft, I have yet to see the automation ALWAYS work as advertised. I can’t tell you how many times I have had to kill all automation and intervene. I don’t think it’s as simple as data linking some FMS changes. And it ain’t RC aircraft remote flying. I have flown with lots of UAV guard guys and they laugh when they think you can do that with an airliner. (Datalink failures, datalink lag, winds and weather restrictions, datalink handoffs, and many more limitations)

Weather, winds, metering, deferrals, abnormals, emergencies, traffic, I could go on and on.... I just don’t see how you get a “REAL” pilot out of the airplane. And single pilot maybe, eventually, I’ll concede that but it happening for a long, long time. I’ll worry when I see Boeing/Airbus building single piloted transport category aircraft.
 
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