Sounds to me like gaijin really knows his stuff on Japan and has quite an arguement to present. Rep points for that. I'll second the fact that anything in the Formosa/Tiawan Straights is just a bad thing waiting to happen.
I'll jump on the bandwagon for rearming Japan as having them be a counter balance in the theatre. They would easily adopt the role of regional superpower considering their great wealth and incredible technology. And who knows what they already have in terms of military power and technology. Bad memory, but do remember that even India managed to pull the wool over our eyes and develop a nuclear weapons program without full CIA knowledge. I'd risk it to say the Japanese are quite a bit more clever. But I'm not implying they have ICBMs ready for use or anything like that.
As for China, from the classes I took on it, and the reading I try to keep up on, the leadership culture there really is not affected by the short term, just like A4's said. They do not feel a long term threat from us. They know we have to come all the way across an ocean and even then we've just started. More than anything they belive in the staying power of their culture. They will do whatever they can to save face, if that means tactical nukes, it would be unreasonable to discount that possibility. They have no intentions of being "shown up" by some 200+ year old, wet behind the ears, western country. A draw, and a war of attrition is enough for them to save face. So the only way we win is to invade and occupy the most populous nation on earth. We shouldn't be so quick to start thinking that way.