I have a few opinions to assert:
NO, Al-Qaeda and Friends would never ally with the Chinese. Fly Navy is not wrong.
YES, fly the Rising Sun again. Yes, it would create a buffer zone, and a home-grown ally (think: the special relationship on two oceans). But think of the potential of US-Japanese military technological/industrial cooperation. It would supercharge both economies, no?
YES, it is stupid to think of China as a third-world country. BUT, they CANNOT devlope high technology very well. They can buy it, steal it, copy it, and utilize it, but they do not YET have the infastructure to create it themselves. Japan and the United States would do well to maintain control of this sector.
OH, and as long as we're on the topic of unstable Russia. They aren't exactly behaving up to code, democratically speaking, and their influence in the old republics is waning. Keep an eye on their status... who knows what could happen there. ALSO, keep an eye on terrorism in Saudi Arabia... that region also has potential for destabilization.
Anyways... that's just me.
And Godspeed, yes, it is complicated, and that is why I wish we still lived in the Cold War... but when the Cold War started, people said they wished they could go back to fighting the Nazis and the Kaiser; it's all relative.