If I were in your shoes, I'd get production shore orders (FRS or CNATRA, a SWTI patch will lock you in) so you've got a fallback if it doesn't work out. It's very realistic you don't get either of these programs and have to continue on. For the warfare transition, you need to be junior enough and have a strong enough record to survive 2 years of NOB time in VTJs and the FRS before you get back to the fleet. Friends I've known with strong records who tried half way into their shore tour were too senior, so timing is key. Ideally on your JO fleet tour with high water FITREP and orders in hand or shortly after you get to shore duty.
I did this. Got my EP from my fleet HSC squadron, cut my fleet tour short by 3 months, took orders to the VT's, and applied for a VFA/VAQ warfare transition shortly after getting to my shore tour. With the strong backing of my front office. I was told they wanted someone more junior. 3 years later, an HSM squadron mate picked up VAQ about a year and a half in to his shore tour. So maybe times are changing.
When I was talking to the program manager about how the "board" works, he told me it's not so much a board in the traditional sense. He described it more as a conversation between the respective community managers. First they ask your community if they will let you go. If they say no, then the process is over for you. If they say sure, they go to the gaining community with all the "released" applicants and ask if they want any of them. At that point they would look at who (if anyone) they believe could make a successful transition to their community (read junior), and if they want you. I applied during the O-4 bloodbath, so I was told that played in to their hesitance. The program manager emphasized that it's not a "press 100" type of board, there aren't traditional quotas, and they don't even necessarily pick anyone up.
I don't regret the path I took at all. If I'd been picked up I would have loved flying fighters anywhere they would have let me do it. As it turned out, I had by far my favorite tour flying my ass off in the T-6. Then I picked up FTS VR and finally got to be a jet pilot!